Forrester/ANA Study Questioned; Carat Primetime Development Insights; ELLEgirl Goes Digital; New Researcher Tracks Real-Time Media Usage; Jack Myers' Theater Recommendations
Bernoff's research is far too leading -- and misleading -- to be considered a reliable indication of actual planning strategies.
Forrester/ANA New Media Study is Misleading
Forrester's Josh Bernoff is at it again, and this time with support and funding from the Association of National Advertisers. Once referred to as "the least trusted man in media," Bernoff has a reputation
for a long history of inaccurate forecasting published under the umbrella of Forrester, whose chief executive admitted in a New York Times Magazine article that he considered selling research reports and consulting services to be more important than issuing accurate forecasts. Two weeks ago, ANA and Forrester issued a new report, Marketers Adding Alternatives to Television Advertising.
Duh! That's obvious enough, but the accompanying story is dangerously misleading. "Seventy-eight percent of marketers feel that TV advertising has become less effective in the past two years," states
the press release, adding "the survey also found that marketers are exploring emerging technologies to help bolster their television advertising spend." Does the study report most advertisers are exploring those technologies with the networks themselves? Does it explain why
the total television national TV ad spend continues to increase year after year?
Bernoff commented, "As DVRs look to climb above 30 million households in the next three years, advertisers are finding themselves forced to reconsider their media mix. Television networks continue to publish
research that traditional TV advertising is potent as ever, but national advertisers aren't buying it and are seeking alternatives to enhance their budgets and move them beyond the customary 30-second spot."
This states the obvious, but the ANA should have taken more care to put Bernoff's research in context. In a courtroom, opposing counsel would have objected to the form and format of Forrester's
questions. Forrester says "almost 70% of advertisers think that DVRs and video-on-demand will reduce or destroy the effectiveness of traditional 30-second commercials." How about if we ask the question this way instead: "Do you believe television networks will develop alternative opportunities for advertisers that capitalize on new media technologies
such as the DVR and VOD?" And "If conventional television networks develop tools and resources enabling advertisers to utilize new media technologies such as DVR and VOD, would you prefer to work with these networks or through non-network alternatives?" Or Forrester could have asked, "Do you believe the 30-second spot will continue to be a viable tool for communicating with TV audiences for your company for the foreseeable future?"
Here's the fascinating inconsistency in the Forrester and ANA research: while 60% of advertisers say that they will spend less on conventional TV advertising when DVRs spread to 30 million homes, Forrester admits most advertisers have not yet even experimented with advertising on DVRs or video-on-demand. While advertisers are certainly aware of the impact of new
media technologies, Bernoff's research is far too leading -- and misleading -- to be considered a reliable indication of actual planning strategies. The research ignores that conventional television networks will continue to be the gatekeepers of the most powerful media brands. It ignores that television networks will be the primary vehicles through which marketers will access new media technologies. Advertisers will be the passengers and there's a
good chance they will be spending more - not less - money for the ride. Bernoff's comments remind me of the headlines claiming Dewey beat Truman. Never bet against the incumbent, especially when the incumbent still wins all the popularity contests.
Carat Issues Primetime Development Review
Talking about networks and new media, Carat's New Season Development report points out "the networks are
experimenting with extending their programming brands across every conceivable type of screen, platform and portable and mobile devices." The report outlines the strategy for each of the broadcast TV networks for the 2006/2007 season:
ABC: ABC will create compatible series that can benefit from being paired with successful performers. Theme: "All About the Content."
CBS: CBS will be more open to trying new formats with distinct points of view. CBS is looking to
extend its reach to wider audiences by offering a mix of genres and programs that will generate water cooler buzz. Web-based extensions, including companion narratives to series programming, will be created for both online and wireless platforms, offering a variety of touch points for viewers. Theme: "CBS is Rock Solid."
NBC: Kevin Reilly (NBC Entertainment President) referred to NBC as the future home of the top-rated network. The strength of NBC's development slate will give them the potential
to hit the ratings jackpot, a goal only obtainable by delivering high quality, cutting edge TV. This is the first season that NBC will be airing four hours of NFL football on Sunday nights. The network only has to focus on programming five nights during the fourth quarter. Primetime development will be ongoing, and new shows will be rolled out all year. The
summer months will be no longer be about airing leftovers. Accordingly, NBC will air a combination of scripted series and non-scripted content. Because of the changing video landscape, digital extensions of TV content across many NBC Universal brands, will be made
available on all types of broadband and downloadable platforms. Theme: "Future Home of the Number One Network."
FOX: Fox's strategy for next year is to develop daring and distinctive shows that will break through. The network will be pursuing a combination of action-packed
series to appeal to sports fans, as well as fans of 24 and Prison Break. Younger skewing and female-appealing series will be developed that will engage both The O.C. and American Idol fan bases. The network will also continue its strategy of early premieres in order to manage the scheduling interruptions from Baseball Playoffs. Since Fox has a stronger schedule foundation, established shows will be used as the basis for launching new ones. Theme: "The Future
Belongs to Those Who Dare."
The CW: The CW will draw upon the best product from each network. From the WB, the returning shows will most likely be: Smallville, Supernatural, Beauty and the Geek, One Tree Hill, Everwood and Reba. From the UPN
side, the returning series will most likely be: America's Next Top Model, All of Us, Girlfriends, Friday Night Smackdown and Everybody Hates Chris. The CW will be positioned as the destination for young adults 18 to 34, and will be branding these viewers "The CW Generation." Because The CW will have a strong programming foundation at launch, emphasis will be placed on developing quality companions to established series. Theme: "C What's New."
My Network TV: My Network TV, advise Carat, was created by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp in
the aftermath of the announcement of The CW's creation. The newly formed network, which is set to launch on Tuesday September 5, will secure coverage on the former affiliates of the WB and UPN that will not be joining the new CW network. As of March 31, My Network TV is cleared on TV stations representing 63% of U.S. TV homes. Initial
series will include English language tele-novellas that are set to air Monday through Friday from 8 to 10 PM. A recap show and current affairs programming will most likely run on Saturday nights.
Hachette Moves ELLEgirl to Digital Platform
Hachette Filipacchi Media U.S. announced ELLEgirl magazine will be discontinued following the June/July 2006 issue and the company will increase its substantial investment in the brand's digital formats focusing on ELLEgirl.com and
wireless content. CEO Jack Kliger said: "It is always unfortunate to have to close a magazine; but today the teen market is increasingly fragmented. To effectively reach these girls, we must invest in the media where they spend most of their time and where we see our greatest growth potential."
New Research Company Offers Consumer Tracking Via Cell Phone
A recently launched San Jose based company called Integrated Media Measurement, Inc,. (IMMI) (www.immi.com) claims they have devised a system using an off-the-shelf cell phone to track advertising and consumer behavior. Founder Tom Zito has been meeting with research suppliers, advertisers and agencies sharing
results from more than a year of testing and working with several key companies. The "IMeasure" system, says IMMI, "tracks all media 24/7, including key media that traditional media companies can't measure. IMeasure links media exposure to consumer action." Using a digital monitoring system based on open-architecture cell phones, IMeasure tracks television
viewing outside the home, time-shifted and on-demand viewing, mobile device viewing and listening, radio, DVDs, audio CDs and video games, Outdoor, theatrical films, live concerts and sporting
events, and cell phone videos and games. IMMI also says the service reports detailed demographics that get to individual behavior, and will provide programming insights as well as advertiser value. For more information, contact inquiries@immi.com.
Jack Myers' Theater Recommendations
Again this year, Broadway and off-Broadway dramas are capturing stronger critical reviews than musicals, with John Patrick Shanley's (Doubt) Defiance at City Center and Martin McDonough's (Pillowman) The
Lieutenant of Inishmore at the Atlantic Theater Company generating positive reviews. But the best show off-Broadway right now is a small, unheralded small stage play unmemorably titled Based on a Totally True Story.
Inishmore is a strange and completely original theatrical event that achieves the impossible: making the bloodiest mess ever presented on stage humorous, strangely warm, and literate. The
only possible analogy in any medium is Pulp Fiction, and there are certainly no comparisons on a legitimate stage. McDonough, who lost the Tony for Best Play last year to Shanley but who won an Academy Award, has already received a Broadway commitment for his new play, with Defiance a sure bet to follow soon.
Defiance treads similar ground as Shanley's Tony winning Doubt, but the moral issues are too "in
your face," and the comparisons to Doubt are too obvious. But, as in Inishmore the performances are powerful and the experience worthwhile.
The pleasant surprise of the off-Broadway season is a small five person play, Based on a Totally True Story at City Center II. Playwright Roberto Aguirre-Sacasa has written a flawless script focused on completely honest, unassuming, real-life and compelling characters. These
characters populate an obviously personal story of young talent coming of age and grappling with relationships, success and personal demons. Performances by Carson Elrod, Erik Heger, Pedro Pascal, Michael Tucker and especially Kristine Nielsen are truly beyond perfect, if that's possible. It's rare in any play that every character is compelling, engaging, perfectly
presented, and has his/her individually nuanced voice. There is not a false moment in Based on a Totally True Story. It will catch you off-guard and reinforce your confidence that theater in America is more than alive and well, it's sometimes great in the most unexpected ways. See it.
