2010-2020 Forecast: Marketing & Media Winners. Marketing & Media Losers.

Read Jack Myers' commentary below.

Jack Myers' Commentary

Total marketing communications budgets will be up only slightly for the remainder of the decade, and substantially down when factoring in inflation. Yet, most legacy media categories will experience some growth even as digital media explodes. An estimated $135 billion dollars is draining from just five marketing categories between 2010 and 2020, feeding the coffers of digital media companies and the digital assets of legacy media distributors and content producers. The losers are direct-to-retail trade promotion, consumer sales promotion, direct marketing/e-mail, newspapers and yellow pages, all of which are disintermediated by digital resources. The big winners are cable network TV, search marketing, social marketing, mobile, digital video and audio, and gaming. Among legacy media and marketing, the only losers are newspapers, local TV stations, custom and business-to-business publishing, broadcast TV syndication and offline public relations. But even newspapers and local TV will experience stabilization of their ad revenues beginning in 2016 as they respond to contraction and consolidation and as their digital investments pay off. Network TV, radio, consumer magazines and out-of-home are already reaping the benefits of digital investments and their ability to reach comparatively mass audiences. Advertising in Hispanic media will more than double between 2010 and 2020, as marketers recognize not only the demographic shifts that have been apparent for a while, but also increasingly come to terms with four realities:

• Hispanic media represent a last bastion of mass audience reach;
• Hispanic audiences are affluent;
• Hispanic audiences tend to be early adapters of technology and are heavy consumers;
• Hispanic audiences tend to be more loyal than average to media and marketers that explicitly target them.

Full annual data and forecasts for 52 advertising and marketing categories including breakouts of legacy vs. digital media spending are available to Myers Media Business Network members at www.myersbiz.net. Password information is available by contacting maryann@jackmyers.com.

SOURCE: Jack Myers Media Business Report © copyright 2013.
*2020 data is an estimate.
**Forecast includes Olympics, NFL, NCAA and other sports programming. Includes political revenues.
***Excludes World Cup Revenues.
Full Source & Methodology is available at myersbiz.net.

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