2013 TV/Video Advertising Forecast: -2.0%

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Cover image for  article: 2013 TV/Video Advertising Forecast: -2.0%

Read Jack Myers Commentary below.

Jack Myers Media Business Report    
National/Local TV, Cinema and Online Video Advertising Spending 2012-2020 
UPDATED 01-30-13  Data reported in 000,000    
 % Change$% Change$
Local & National Spot Broadcast TV(All Platforms)16.4%24,129-15.6%20,372
Cable/Satellite Network Television (All Platforms)7.6%24,1325.8%25,534
Broadcast Network TV (All Platforms)5.0%19,708-0.1%19,681
Local/Regional Cable TV (All Platforms)9.3%5,198-3.9%4,994
Broadcast Syndication (All Platforms)-1.3%2,3910.9%2,414
Cinema Advertising (All Platforms)1.6%7206.8%769
Online Originated Video Content Advertising 75.0%1,18070.0%2,007
Interactive, VOD & Addressable TV Advertising70.0%119120.0%262
TOTAL - U.S. Only10.0%$77,577-2.0%$76,031
Hispanic Advertising Total**14.7% $      3,7719.2% $        4,118
  Hispanic Network Television14.4% $      2,16111.2% $        2,403
  Hispanic Local & National Spot Broadcast TV15.2% $      1,6116.5% $        1,715
TOTAL U.S. including Hispanic10.2% $81,348-1.5% $ 80,149
Source: Jack Myers Media Business Report© copyright 2013   
 AVG % Change AVG % Change 
Local & National Spot Broadcast TV(All Platforms)-8.8%19,9665.5%20,264
Cable/Satellite Network Television (All Platforms)6.3%28,9886.3%39,227
Broadcast Network TV (All Platforms)0.1%19,7441.1%20,863
Local/Regional Cable TV (All Platforms)-0.8%5,0550.8%5,169
Broadcast Syndication (All Platforms)-1.6%2,275-2.1%2,049
Cinema Advertising (All Platforms)5.1%8362.8%957
Online Originated Video Content Advertising 60.0%4,81631.0%18,286
Interactive, VOD & Addressable TV Advertising110.0%1,09056.0%9,652
TOTAL - U.S. Only2.2%$82,7707.1%$116,466
Hispanic Advertising Total**10.3 $      5,0645.5 $        6,575
  Hispanic Network Television12.3% $      3,0626.6% $        4,210
  Hispanic Local & National Spot Broadcast TV7.6% $      2,0023.8% $        2,364
TOTAL U.S. including Hispanic2.6% $87,8347.0% $ 123,041
Source: Jack Myers Media Business Report© copyright 2013   

Jack Myers Commentary: 

Total national and local television advertising spending, including digital revenues generated by legacy TV media, is forecast to decline 3.3% to $73.8 billion in 2013, resulting primarily from the loss of political advertising at the local TV station level. Including online/digital originated video advertising and interactive TV investments reduces the year-to-year decline to 2.0%. (2013 spending represents a 5.7% increase over 2011 investments.)

Cable TV network ad spending increases of 5.0% are supplemented by 25% growth in digital revenues, bringing overall 2013 cable network ad spending to $25.5 billion, up from $24.1 billion in 2012 and $19 billion in 2009.

Broadcast TV network legacy ad spending is forecast to decline 3.0% in 2013, with almost all the declines offset by 40% growth in digital revenues, leveling overall broadcast network ad spending at $19.7 billion in both 2012 and 2013. Broadcast TV networks generated $17.4 billion in 2009.

Local TV station ad revenues are forecast to decline 15.6% from $24.1 billion to $20.3 billion. In the last non-election year of 2011, local TV station ad spending was $20.7 billion. Local cable system and interconnect ad revenues are forecast to decline 3.9% this year, generating $5.0 billion.

Broadcast syndication is forecast to grow almost 1.0% to $2.4 billion. Cinema advertising is projected to increase 6.8% in 2013 to $790 million.

In an accelerating marketplace, online originated video advertising (You Tube, AOL On, Yahoo, Grab, Tremor, Videology, Yume, etc.) is projected to catapult by 70% to more than $2.0 billion in 2013, compared to a 2010 base of only $350 million. Interactive, VOD and addressable TV advertising is also set for explosive growth in 2013, increasing 120% to $260 million.

Forecasts through 2020 are included in the Jack Myers Media Business Report Advertising/Marketing Spending Data and Forecasts.The chart above includes projected spending in 2015 and 2020, with average annual increases. The full Myers Spending Report, available to subscribers at www.jackmyers.com, includes year-to-year data between 2010 and 2020. Click here to download the above chart.

Our forecasts reflect stable TV industry ad revenues with rapid and exponential growth for online originated video advertising and interactive TV.

Source: Media Advisory Corp, Jack Myers and employees accept no responsibility for any action(s) taken as a result of this forecast.
2013-2020 are estimates.
References: Barclays Capital, BIA/Kelsey, CAB, Carat, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Equity Research, DMA, eMarketer, Goldman Sachs, GroupM, IAB, JPMorgan Chase, Kantar Research, Universal McCann/Magna Global, Morgan Stanley, MPA, Needham Research, Nielsen, PQ Media Alternative Media Research Series, PricewaterhouseCoopers, RAB, TVB, UBS, Verona Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast, Wachovia, Wedbush, Zenith Optimedia, IAB PricewaterhouseCoopers.
**Excludes World Cup Revenues; Includes political revenues
This forecast includes Olympics, NFL, NCAA and other sports programming.

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