2013 TV/Video Advertising Forecast: -2.0%
Read Jack Myers Commentary below.
| Jack Myers Media Business Report | ||||
| National/Local TV, Cinema and Online Video Advertising Spending 2012-2020 | ||||
| UPDATED 01-30-13 Data reported in 000,000 | ||||
| 2012 | 2013 | |||
| % Change | $ | % Change | $ | |
| Local & National Spot Broadcast TV(All Platforms) | 16.4% | 24,129 | -15.6% | 20,372 |
| Traditional | 16.5% | 23,276 | -16.8% | 19,366 |
| Digital | 15.0% | 852 | 18.0% | 1,006 |
| Cable/Satellite Network Television (All Platforms) | 7.6% | 24,132 | 5.8% | 25,534 |
| Traditional | 7.0% | 23,156 | 5.0% | 24,314 |
| Digital | 22.5% | 976 | 25.0% | 1,220 |
| Broadcast Network TV (All Platforms) | 5.0% | 19,708 | -0.1% | 19,681 |
| Traditional | 3.2% | 18,395 | -3.0% | 17,843 |
| Digital | 40.0% | 1,313 | 40.0% | 1,838 |
| Local/Regional Cable TV (All Platforms) | 9.3% | 5,198 | -3.9% | 4,994 |
| Traditional | 9.0% | 5,054 | -4.5% | 4,826 |
| Digital | 20.0% | 144 | 16.0% | 167 |
| Broadcast Syndication (All Platforms) | -1.3% | 2,391 | 0.9% | 2,414 |
| Traditional | -2.0% | 2,290 | 0.0% | 2,290 |
| Digital | 17.5% | 101 | 22.5% | 123 |
| Cinema Advertising (All Platforms) | 1.6% | 720 | 6.8% | 769 |
| Traditional | 1.6% | 719 | 6.8% | 768 |
| Digital | 12.0% | 1 | 15.0% | 1 |
| Online Originated Video Content Advertising | 75.0% | 1,180 | 70.0% | 2,007 |
| Interactive, VOD & Addressable TV Advertising | 70.0% | 119 | 120.0% | 262 |
| TOTAL - U.S. Only | 10.0% | $77,577 | -2.0% | $76,031 |
| Hispanic Advertising Total** | 14.7% | $ 3,771 | 9.2% | $ 4,118 |
| Hispanic Network Television | 14.4% | $ 2,161 | 11.2% | $ 2,403 |
| Hispanic Local & National Spot Broadcast TV | 15.2% | $ 1,611 | 6.5% | $ 1,715 |
| TOTAL U.S. including Hispanic | 10.2% | $81,348 | -1.5% | $ 80,149 |
| Source: Jack Myers Media Business Report© copyright 2013 | ||||
| 2015 | 2020 | |||
| AVG % Change | AVG % Change | |||
| 2013-2015 | $ | 2016-2020 | $ | |
| Local & National Spot Broadcast TV(All Platforms) | -8.8% | 19,966 | 5.5% | 20,264 |
| Traditional | -10.0% | 18,615 | 4.8% | 18,321 |
| Digital | 12.0% | 1,352 | 12.0% | 1,943 |
| Cable/Satellite Network Television (All Platforms) | 6.3% | 28,988 | 6.3% | 39,227 |
| Traditional | 5.2% | 26,927 | 4.3% | 33,197 |
| Digital | 28.3% | 2,062 | 24.0% | 6,030 |
| Broadcast Network TV (All Platforms) | 0.1% | 19,744 | 1.1% | 20,863 |
| Traditional | -3.2% | 16,699 | -1.6% | 15,333 |
| Digital | 32.5% | 3,045 | 12.8% | 5,530 |
| Local/Regional Cable TV (All Platforms) | -0.8% | 5,055 | 0.8% | 5,169 |
| Traditional | -1.5% | 4,814 | -0.1% | 4,687 |
| Digital | 18.7% | 241 | 15.2% | 482 |
| Broadcast Syndication (All Platforms) | -1.6% | 2,275 | -2.1% | 2,049 |
| Traditional | -3.3% | 2,067 | -4.0% | 1,680 |
| Digital | 27.5% | 208 | 12.2% | 369 |
| Cinema Advertising (All Platforms) | 5.1% | 836 | 2.8% | 957 |
| Traditional | 5.1% | 834 | 2.8% | 955 |
| Digital | 15.0% | 1 | 8.0% | 2 |
| Online Originated Video Content Advertising | 60.0% | 4,816 | 31.0% | 18,286 |
| Interactive, VOD & Addressable TV Advertising | 110.0% | 1,090 | 56.0% | 9,652 |
| TOTAL - U.S. Only | 2.2% | $82,770 | 7.1% | $116,466 |
| Hispanic Advertising Total** | 10.3 | $ 5,064 | 5.5 | $ 6,575 |
| Hispanic Network Television | 12.3% | $ 3,062 | 6.6% | $ 4,210 |
| Hispanic Local & National Spot Broadcast TV | 7.6% | $ 2,002 | 3.8% | $ 2,364 |
| TOTAL U.S. including Hispanic | 2.6% | $87,834 | 7.0% | $ 123,041 |
| Source: Jack Myers Media Business Report© copyright 2013 | ||||
Jack Myers Commentary:
Total national and local television advertising spending, including digital revenues generated by legacy TV media, is forecast to decline 3.3% to $73.8 billion in 2013, resulting primarily from the loss of political advertising at the local TV station level. Including online/digital originated video advertising and interactive TV investments reduces the year-to-year decline to 2.0%. (2013 spending represents a 5.7% increase over 2011 investments.)
Cable TV network ad spending increases of 5.0% are supplemented by 25% growth in digital revenues, bringing overall 2013 cable network ad spending to $25.5 billion, up from $24.1 billion in 2012 and $19 billion in 2009.
Broadcast TV network legacy ad spending is forecast to decline 3.0% in 2013, with almost all the declines offset by 40% growth in digital revenues, leveling overall broadcast network ad spending at $19.7 billion in both 2012 and 2013. Broadcast TV networks generated $17.4 billion in 2009.
Local TV station ad revenues are forecast to decline 15.6% from $24.1 billion to $20.3 billion. In the last non-election year of 2011, local TV station ad spending was $20.7 billion. Local cable system and interconnect ad revenues are forecast to decline 3.9% this year, generating $5.0 billion.
Broadcast syndication is forecast to grow almost 1.0% to $2.4 billion. Cinema advertising is projected to increase 6.8% in 2013 to $790 million.
In an accelerating marketplace, online originated video advertising (You Tube, AOL On, Yahoo, Grab, Tremor, Videology, Yume, etc.) is projected to catapult by 70% to more than $2.0 billion in 2013, compared to a 2010 base of only $350 million. Interactive, VOD and addressable TV advertising is also set for explosive growth in 2013, increasing 120% to $260 million.
Forecasts through 2020 are included in the Jack Myers Media Business Report Advertising/Marketing Spending Data and Forecasts.The chart above includes projected spending in 2015 and 2020, with average annual increases. The full Myers Spending Report, available to subscribers at www.jackmyers.com, includes year-to-year data between 2010 and 2020. Click here to download the above chart.
Our forecasts reflect stable TV industry ad revenues with rapid and exponential growth for online originated video advertising and interactive TV.
Source: Media Advisory Corp, Jack Myers and employees accept no responsibility for any action(s) taken as a result of this forecast.
2013-2020 are estimates.
References: Barclays Capital, BIA/Kelsey, CAB, Carat, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Equity Research, DMA, eMarketer, Goldman Sachs, GroupM, IAB, JPMorgan Chase, Kantar Research, Universal McCann/Magna Global, Morgan Stanley, MPA, Needham Research, Nielsen, PQ Media Alternative Media Research Series, PricewaterhouseCoopers, RAB, TVB, UBS, Verona Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast, Wachovia, Wedbush, Zenith Optimedia, IAB PricewaterhouseCoopers.
**Excludes World Cup Revenues; Includes political revenues
This forecast includes Olympics, NFL, NCAA and other sports programming.
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Jack Myers
Media Ecologist, Founder: MediaVillage and Advancing Diversity Hall of Honors Jack Myers is a media ecologist and founder of MediaVillage, the media and advertising community’s leading resource for market intelligence, education, business connection…
