Advertising vs. Below-the-Line Shopper Marketing: The Economics

By The Media Ecologist Archives
Cover image for  article: Advertising vs. Below-the-Line Shopper Marketing: The Economics

Scroll down for MyersBizNet's detailed Advertising and Promotional/Shopper Marketing Spending Data and Forecasts 2013-2020. Read more on the implications of Shopper Marketing for media and agencieshere.

Marketers historically have invested an average 10% to 35% of their total marketing communications budgets to deliver reach and frequency of message exposure designed to drive awareness, product interest and message retention. These budgets are referred to as "above-the-line advertising." The majority 65% to 90% of their budgets, known as below-the-line, are targeted to generating sales and direct return-on-investment through consumer and trade sales promotion and direct marketing. The exclusive MyersBizNet advertising and below-the-line data and forecasts reflects the accelerating shift of marketers' budgets from promotional below-the-line budgets to digital media to capitalize on the opportunity to generate promotional return-on-investment at more efficient costs.

According to the MyersBizNet forecasts, below-the-line promotional and shopper marketing budgets will decline an average 2.7% annually through the end of the decade, from $408 billion in 2013 to almost $333 billion in 2020. Marketers' spending with above-the-line media will grow during this same period an average 4.2% annually from $171 to $240 billion. (See media by media details below.)

The increased focus by marketers on achieving shopper marketing goals through digital media capabilities, combined with agencies' and marketers' investments in automated buying, are driving a bifurcation of media investments.

Traditional media investments will be focused on achieving greater cost efficiencies and capitalizing on the shift in supply/demand dynamics. Fundamentally, the primary goals of these budgets will remain awareness, reach, frequency and cost efficiencies, with automated systems being the primary tool for more effective implementation, resulting in downward pricing pressure on media suppliers.

Marketers will shift below-the-line budgets to media partners that are most able and willing to develop and implement promotional, marketing and brand-centric programs, and support results-based measurement tools. As technology is put in place to manage transactional planning and buying, media agencies will shift their creative and human resources to enhanced relationships with those media partners that offer scale, quality content, valued audiences, multi-platform media integration and measurement, promotional resources, and specialized service and support teams.

MyersBizNet members can access detailed year-by-year data 2009-2020 at MyersBizNet.com

Official Marketing / Advertising Spending Data 2010 – 2020

Above–the-Line Advertising Spending

MyersBizNet Media Business Report 2014           
Official Marketing / Advertising Spending Data 2010 - 2020           
UPDATED 01-03-14  Data reported in 000,000           
ABOVE-THE-LINE MEDIA / ADVERTISING2013201420152020Avg Annual Chng Avg Annual Chng
 $% Share$% Share$% Share$% Share2013 2014 2015 2016 - 2020
Newspaper Advertising(Print + All Platforms)24,686 24,651 24,287 23,541 -2.2% -0.6%
Traditional20,15181.619,34578.518,18474.913,59757.8-6.2% -5.5%
Digital4,53618.45,30721.56,10325.19,94542.215.7% 10.3%
Local & National Spot Broadcast TV(All Platforms)21,002 23,080 21,003 21,205 -4.0% 0.5%
Traditional20,06495.522,03095.519,82794.419,51492.0-4.7% 0.0%
Digital9384.51,0504.51,1765.61,6918.011.3% 7.6%
Cable/Satellite Network Television(All Platforms)26,131 28,031 30,303 40,322 7.9% 5.9%
Traditional25,00995.726,68495.228,55294.235,20187.37.2% 4.3%
Digital1,1224.31,3474.81,7515.85,12112.721.7% 24.0%
Broadcast Network TV(All Platforms)19,014 19,582 19,282 19,916 -0.7% 0.7%
Traditional17,43891.717,61389.916,82087.215,44477.5-2.9% -1.6%
Digital1,5768.31,97010.12,46212.84,47222.523.3% 12.8%
Consumer Magazines Advertising(Print + All Platforms)16,413 16,504 16,697 16,398 0.3% -0.4%
Traditional14,58788.914,22286.213,86683.011,42369.7-2.7% -3.8%
Digital1,82611.12,28213.82,83017.04,97530.323.0% 12.0%
Terrestrial Radio(All Platforms)16,629 17,015 16,841 17,602 -0.2% 1.0%
Traditional15,47393.115,62891.815,06689.513,49376.7-1.9% -2.1%
Digital1,1566.91,3878.21,77510.54,10923.321.0% 18.4%
Media Directed Social/Promotion/Sponsorships/Native7,864 8,808 9,3375.012,839 9.4% 6.6%
Branded Entertainment/Product Placement7,178 7,537 7,838 8,911 5.1% 2.6%
Out-of-Home/Place-Based(excl. Cinema & P-O-I)7,643 8,010 8,085 9,166 3.7% 2.6%
Online Pure Play Display (Banner) Advertising7,401 7,786 8,222 7,642 5.6% -1.4%
Local/Regional Cable TV (All Platforms)4,982 5,194 4,978 5,061 -1.4% 0.7%
Traditional4,82696.95,01996.64,76995.84,64291.7-1.8% -0.1%
Digital1563.11743.42094.24198.313.3% 15.2%
Broadcast Syndication(All Platforms)2,367 2,287 2,194 1,935 -2.8% -2.5%
Traditional2,25695.32,16694.72,03692.81,65585.5-3.8% -4.0%
Digital1114.71225.31587.228014.516.7% 12.2%
Videogame Advertising/Virtual Currency1,601 1,921 2,248 3,545 18.3% 9.6%
Mobile & Apps Advertising (incl. Mobile Search)4,146 6,633 9,949 26,175 63.3% 22.0%
Cinema Advertising (All Platforms)799 855 885 1,013 7.2% 2.8%
Traditional79899.985499.988399.81,01199.87.2% 2.8%
Digital10.110.110.220.215.0% 8.0%
Digital Place-Based Video920 1,036 1,158 2,040 12.7% 12.0%
Internet Originated Radio 883 1,219 1,646 4,203 37.0% 20.7%
Online Pure Play Video Content Advertising 1,372 2,195 3,293 12,502 50.0% 31.0%
Interactive, VOD & Addressable TV Advertising167 233 350 5,139 43.3% 72.0%
TOTAL - U.S. Only$171,1960.0$182,5780.0$188,5945.0$239,1570.03.5% 4.9%
Source: MyersBizNet Media Business Report© copyright 2014           
            

Official Marketing / Advertising Spending Data 2010 – 2020

Below–the-Line Promotional/Shopper Marketing Spending

MyersBizNet Media Business Report 2014           
Official Marketing / Advertising Spending Data 2010 - 2020           
UPDATED 01-06-14  Data reported in 000,000           
BELOW-THE-LINE PROMOTION, SHOPPER & DIRECT MARKETING2013201420152020Avg Annual Chng Avg Annual Change
 $% Share$% Share$% Share$% Share2013 2014 2015 2016 -2020
Direct-to-Trade Promotion/Slotting Allowances167,067 159,549 153,965 122,883 -3.3% -4.4%
Consumer Sales Promotion/Shopper Marketing/Coupons134,098 128,347 123,018 80,391 -4.1% -8.1%
Traditional130,10897.0122,56195.5115,20893.759,33273.8-5.5% -12.4%
Digital3,9903.05,7854.57,8106.321,06026.236.7% 22.0%
Direct Mail/ E-Mail Marketing (All Platforms)43,272 41,867 38,973 30,237 -2.1% -4.9%
Traditional39,65591.638,06990.935,02389.926,13986.4-5.0% -5.7%
Digital3,6178.43,7989.13,95010.14,09813.65.0% 0.8%
Experiential/Event Marketing19,289 20,061 20,462 24,651 2.7% 3.8%
Search Marketing (Online)20,360 22,396 25,083 36,435 13.3% 7.8%
Yellow Pages(Print + Digital)8,467 7,580 7,014 5,825 -9.8% -3.6%
Traditional6,33774.85,45071.94,90569.93,99168.5-12.7% -4.0%
Digital2,13025.22,13028.12,10930.11,83431.5-1.3% -2.7%
Business-to-Business Magazines(Print + All Platforms)5,197 4,924 4,821 3,951 -5.0% -3.9%
Traditional4,57688.14,21085.53,99983.03,02976.7-7.7% -5.4%
Digital62111.971414.582117.092223.315.0% 2.4%
Offline Public Relations4,161 3,995 3,835 2,831 -3.7% -5.8%
Custom Publishing/Site Development(Print & Digital)1,599 1,511 1,456 980 -5.1% -7.6%
Traditional1,04165.191660.686159.151952.9-11.0% -9.6%
Digital55934.959539.459540.946147.17.5% -4.9%
Social Marketing/WOM/Conversational Marketing4,620 6,237 8,420 24,546 36.7% 24.0%
TOTAL - U.S. Only$408,130 $396,465 $387,046 $332,731 -2.3% -3.0%
Source: MyersBizNet Media Business Report© copyright 2014           
            
MyersBizNet Inc, Jack Myers and employees accept no responsibility for any action(s) taken as a result of this forecast.        
2013-2020 are estimates.            
Facebook display ads included in display category.           
References: Barclays Capital, BIA/Kelsey, CAB, Carat, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Equity Research, DMA, eMarketer, Goldman Sachs, GroupM, IAB, JPMorgan Chase,    
Kantar Research, Universal McCann/Magna Global, Morgan Stanley, MPA, Needham Research, Nielsen, PQ Media Alternative Media Research Series, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, RAB, TvB,      
UBS, Verona Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast, Wachovia, Wedbush, Zenith Optimedia, IAB PricewaterhouseCoopers.    
**Excludes World Cup Revenues; Includes political revenues           
This forecast includes Olympics, NFL, NCAA and           
other sports programming.           
            

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