BROADCAST SYNDICATION AD SPENDING 2000-2020. PLUS New Guard of Video Content Syndication Business Takes Stage at NATPE

By The Myers Report Archives
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As the National Association of Television Programming Executives annual conference begins in Miami Beach this week, with a stellar speaker line-up of global luminaries from both traditional and emerging media, I'm publishing my 10-year forecast and 20-year perspective on the Broadcast Syndication advertising business. Between 2000 and 2020, broadcast syndication ad spending will be virtually unchanged, capturing 0.3% of the total $600 billion (2010) in marketers' advertising and communications investments. Below is the Jack Myers Media Business Report Broadcast Syndication Investment Report and Forecast 2000-2020.

What the Consumer Electronics Show has in sizzle, NATPE has in real meat and valuable insights into the changing landscape for content producers, content distributors and marketers that is resulting from the technological innovation on display at CES. One NATPE panel asks the question: "U.S. Domestic Syndication: Is There a Pulse?" The panel description responds: "The answer is yes! But it's not as strong as it was and the opportunity to get healthy relies on the creativity, risk taking and vision of the participants." These are not necessarily the qualities that describe the legacy broadcast syndication business. Yet creativity, risk taking and vision are available in abundance at NATPE.

NATPE panels this year include many executives from digital companies that seek to capture their share of the more than $14 billion that marketers are forecast to invest in Online Originated Video Content Advertising in 2020,compared to the less than $2 billion in ad spend that will continue to be available to domestic broadcast syndicators. (See Jack Myers Media Business Report Media, Advertising & Marketing Investment Report 2000-2020.) Online originated video content advertising generated only $350 million in ad revenues in 2010, according to Myers' data, making it the fastest growing advertising business during the next decade.

Another NATPE panel featuring "The New Guard of Digital Deal Makers" aptly points out: "It used to be that Hollywood's deal makers were all working at studios, talent agencies or networks. Now they are all over the entertainment business and the new guard of deal makers are inking deals left and right. With the growing focus on digital production, entertainment and content, the folks making the deals have changed too." Based on the quality of the agenda NATPE president Rick Feldman and his team has organized, while the "broadcast" syndication market itself may be stagnating, the "video content" syndication marketplace is robust and NATPE is back as a relevant marketplace and showcase.

Jack MyersMedia Business Report - Vision 2020

Media, Advertising & Marketing Investment Report 2000-2020

Broadcast Syndication Ad Spending Data

(See Myers detailed Economic Forecast for 55 Media and Marketing Categories)

Broadcast Syndication Ad Spending
 $$$% Change% Share of Total Marketing
    
2000$1,889 0.3
2010$2,276 2.1%(avg. annual)  0.4
2011$2,3653.90%0.4
2012$2,273-3.90%0.4
2015$2,179-1.4%(avg. annual)0.3
2020$1,985-1.8%(avg. annual)0.3
    

Declines in 2012 include significant reductions based on the move of OPRAH from syndication to cable. If Oprah was not included in 2011 data, total syndication ad spend would reflect year-to-year increases. 2010-2020 data includes incremental revenues generated through broadcast syndicators' digital assets. These revenues represent 3.7% of total in 2010; 10.2% of revenues in 2015; and 20% of revenues in 2020. Broadcast syndication ad spending has been recalibrated from prior Myers reports based on a new proprietary market analysis. Prior reports, which were based on McCann Erickson and Veronis Suhler data, could not be validated based on market spending assessments and have been adjusted to reflect actual marketplace reporting by broadcast syndication companies and new data released by Magna Global.

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