By This Time Next Year... - Simon Applebaum - MediaBizBloggers

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Cover image for  article: By This Time Next Year... - Simon Applebaum - MediaBizBloggers

It's so tempting around this time of year -- write a column about what next year will be like. As you can see, I'm giving in, but with a twist. Here's a passing parade of observations about how the end of next year might, could, or will look.

By this time next year, Comcast will clear all the regulatory and shareholder hurdles to win operating control of NBC Universal, or be close. We're already clear Comcast wants this deal to be a king of cable programming networks. What will become clear is Comcast's intention to keep NBC as is, failed Jay Leno experiment and all, convert it into a cable network and throw the broadcast station affiliates to the wolves, or something in between.

By this time next year, Comcast will make clear what side of the retransmission consent road it will travel with NBC Universal. Will the company resist higher retrans fees side-by-side with other cable operators, or give in, pay those higher fees as an MSO and charge them as a programming king? Along the way, will Comcast make station owners with NBC affiliates pay for charging higher retrans fees with demands for a cut of their revenue? Talk about your thickening plotlines.

By this time next year, we'll know if interactive television, after decades of technology or economics falling short, will finally connect with the American public through the combined effort of TV set makers, broadcast, cable, satellite and overbuilder ventures. I'm betting yes. Stand by, all you Web sites, 100,000-plus iPhone applications and 20,000-plus Android applications. To paraphrase President Obama, your time for reaching people via TV has come.

By this time next year, broadcast network affiliates will have strategies in place to save their local newscasts at all costs. If they don't, especially if the local advertising sales market doesn't rebound, we'll lose with less daily/nightly news close to home. One more time: local newscasts should be the last thing cut amid budget woes, not the first. Please make decisions like CBS affiliate WYOU in Scranton, Pa. (dropping all newscasts) the rare exception, not the trend du jour by this time next year.

By this time next year, 3D sets will be in the marketplace, and 3D programming channels, with or without glasses to see them, won't be far behind.

By this time next year, venture capitalists and angel investors will get the message that what they did for the Web -- investing billions yearly in content and technology -- they can do for TV programming and technology. A possibility on my part, and a strong one. Get off your behinds and do it. There are new networks, new services and new benefits for us in gestation out there, waiting for these people who have the dollars in hand to make them happen. Not to mention the number of jobs you can create to stimulate and grow the economy.

By this time next year, Mya will have her own song-and-dance variety show. Anyone who saw her light up Dancing With The Stars week after week this fall can see that. Bring along dance partner Dmitry Chapin for the ride.

By this time next year, we'll see Discovery Communications work magic with Hasbro on a rebranded Discovery Kids net, and get ready to launch the new era of Oprah on TV with OWN early in 2011.

By this time next year, diversity on every level of TV will flourish, with new linear channel, video-on-demand or interactive TV projects owned, managed or aimed at African-Americans, Latinos, Asian-Americans, Native Americans etc.

By this time next year... I'll leave this last one for you to fill in with an aspiration for what TV might be. Go for it.

*****

Two last observations from this year's passing parade:

***Whether John Ford's departure from running Discovery Channel was amicable or not, under parent Discovery Communications' management reorg earlier this month, he deserved far better than a buried line in a reorg press release, sans acknowledgement for his tenure. Ford did a fine job the last two years as Discovery Channel president, with solid ratings growth and high audience and critics praise for its content. Be sure he won't be exiled for long.

***Thank you for checking out this column and all the work posted by my fellow MediaBizBloggers this year. It's been a pleasure getting these thoughts to you, and getting your reaction to them. Check us out for the new year and decade ahead. The ride will be amazing, even better with you aboard.

Whatever you're hoping for in 2010 for yourself and others, realize that and way more.

Until the next time -- in the next decade -- stay well and stay tuned.

*****

Simon Applebaum is producer/host of Tomorrow Will Be Televised, the Internet radio program covering the TV scene. Tomorrow runs live each Monday and two Fridays a month from 3-4 p.m. Eastern time/noon-1 p.m. Pacific time over www.blogtalkradio.com. The program also runs on replay 24/7 at www.blogtalkradio.com/simonapple04 , and on podcast through Web download portals arranged by www.sonibyte.com. Have a question or comment? E-mail it through simonapple04@yahoo.com.

Read all Simon’s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at Tomorrow Will Be Televised - MediaBizBloggers.

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