Don't Doornail 3D Yet - Simon Applebaum

The way many observers of TV trends are observing lately, you might believe 3D was dead as a doornail.

You can understand why. Millions of people were predicted to buy 3D television sets last year. Just above one million actually did, according to final 2010 findings of the Consumer Electronics Association and related parties. The millions of people not buying didn't because they're not enchanted with the idea of watching 3D through glasses--either cumbersome to use or afraid using them will cause headaches, nausea or worse. Or, if they could adapt to glasses, there wasn't enough 3D content worth their while to watch regularly.

Apart from this general conclusion from observers, there's the internal ying/yang within the content creator universe. If the programming doesn't get generated, chances are 3D viewership won't grow. However, if the number of 3D-using TV households doesn't grow, it's not worthwhile to produce content.

Admittedly, it's tempting to label 3D dead as a doornail. Tempting, and I'm not breaking bread with the supporters of this position yet.

How come I'm not? First, there are content producers willing in recent weeks to sidestep the ying/yang and put their belief in 3D's ultimate success as a medium at risk. In a 48-hour span, Discovery Communications, Sony and IMAX launched their long-awaited 3net 3D channel, with a heavy dose of original programs made just for that service, followed by ESPN 3D going from live events here and there to 24/7. What's more, ESPN 3D added live events to their lineup that were not in their original game plan of 100 in the first year of existence, starting with a Friday Night Fights ESPN2 boxing simulcast the Friday after going full-time.

Then a week later, way under anyone's radar screen, Comcast (just getting its feet wet acquiring NBC Universal) started Xfinity 3D, a 24/7 event channel. First night attractions: the live NHL Heritage Classic game from Canada simulcast on Versus, followed by a Kings Of Leon concert supplied by MTV. No one, repeat, no one, saw this coming from Comcast, much less coming so soon after bringing NBC Universal into its fold.

This wave of activity last month tells me that there's plenty of interest still out there in making 3D work, and with a greater array of programming worth checking out, the audience will come through. Another sign that 3D isn't flatlining: we've yet to get a wave of anecdotes across the country of people getting sick from watching 3D on a sustained basis. Comprehensive research from ESPN and other places released since last fall suggests the chances of such a wave happening are slim.

Third, until glasses-free 3D comes along, we may get the next best thing this year--glasses compatible with most or all 3D sets, no matter who makes them. Monster Cable is among the companies putting these glasses in the marketplace, and adoption should make the probability of health adversity from 3D slimmer. Also, we may get glasses-free 3D sets sooner than the five years or so many experts predict. Toshiba has a model available in Japan, and for sure there's a push behind the scenes to get something workable before U.S. customers much quicker. Newcomers like 3D Fusion may or may not be the solution, yet they are out there nevertheless.

Beyond all that, remember this: before the start of this still-new century, high-definition TV was in the same doornail position some put 3D in now. Few HD sets in action and few people watching what was available...and that was after decades of perfecting the technology and government standard-setting. Some brave souls like Mark Cuban, ESPN and Discovery Communications reached for a limb with channels like HD Net, ESPN HD and Discovery HD Theater. Cable and satellite operators reached out with them, followed by consumer electronics retailers. This year, more than half of all TV homes have at least one HD set, every TV network has an HD feed and every new TV network makes it their business to launch in HD. Along the way, the public clicked into the notion that HD is worth watching.

There's still time for 3D to be like HD.

Some brave content souls have made their stand. Let's see if this doornail can be pulled out, instead of hammered shut.

New observations from the passing parade:

*Americanization of British TV hit dramas is one of the top early programming trends this year. So far, channels are batting two for three. Shameless is Showtime's new Sunday night success and a lock for a second season, as isBeing Human on Syfy. The question mark is MTV's controversial Skins, losing audience and major advertisers since its late January debut.

*There's a growing movement of incubators being established around the U.S., assisting start-up companies with the resources and coaching they need to make it. Y Combinator, TechStars and 500 Startups are some of this movement's key players, they are doing a wonderful job, and so far, they're not being encouraged to work with the next generation of TV creators. If venture capitalists and angel investors won't get off the snide to fund TV's next-gen, let's raise some awareness with these incubators to get involved. If they won't play, how about the TV industry creating an incubator of its own? Love to see Start-Up America, President Obama's new public/private investment campaign, play a role.

*Internet Week has become a big bulls eye for Web activity in New York City each June, and Social Media Week is becoming a similar institution here (and other cities worldwide) for mid-February. Now get ready for CE Week NY the week of June 20-24, endorsed by the Consumer Electronics Association. Great move on their part, with the possibility of becoming a wonderful public showcase for 3D, interactive TV and other advanced TV services...if TV content, technology and multi-channel distribution players all participate.

*One of Rod Serling's most underappreciated work was The Loner, his unconventional Western series on CBS starring Lloyd Bridges. Beautifully written, acted and directed, this 1965-66 series tumbleweeded out of existence after one season, in part because Serling wouldn't cowtow to network executives believing a Western needed excessive violence to gain viewers, and CBS reacting by keeping this program in an awful Saturday night time slot without much publicity. On Tomorrow Will Be Televised last fall, I highlighted The Loneras a "Show To Know," and called for someone to give this series new life nationally. YouTube has answered the call; a group of Lonerepisodes (including the opener, "An Echo Of Bugles," written by Serling and directed by Alex March) debuted on YouTube last week in 15-minute chunks. The episodes look great, and you even get the sponsor tags in the credit roll. Kudos to 20th Century-Fox, which produced The Loner, for redistributing this series in super shape, and YouTube for giving us another chance to discover it.

Until the next time, stay well and stay tuned!

Simon Applebaum is host/producer of Tomorrow Will Be Televised, the Internet radio/podcast-distributed program about the TV scene. Tomorrow runs live Mondays/Fridays at 3 p.m. Eastern time, noon Pacific time, on BlogTalk Radio (www.blogtalkradio.com), on 24/7 replay (www.blogtalkradio.com/simonapple04) and podcast (ITunes.com and 17 other Web sites arranged by Sonibyte. Teachers and students can access the program through Cable In The Classroom (www.ciconline.org). Have a question/reaction, or want to sponsor Tomorrow Will Be Televised on Internet radio or podcast? E-mail simonapple04@yahoo.com.

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