Exclusive: 2011-2012 Upfront CPM Inflation Report

(See the detailed Myers National Television Upfront CPM Inflation Data below. This report is being provided to corporate subscribers only and should not be redistributed. ) Final Upfront CPM data from marketers, agencies and networks has been reported; final orders have been confirmed; and first and fourth quarter options information has been incorporated. The official Myers network television cost-per-thousand inflation data for the 2011-2012 Network Television Upfront Marketplace is reported below. The average primetime CPM increase for seven networks, including Univision and Telemundo, for the 2011-2012 Upfront season was 9.5%. This is considerably below the double digit increase forecast by some networks and several Wall St. analysts, although a few individual deals did meet those expectations. The overall weighted CPM increase for all national television, including primetime, non-primetime broadcast network dayparts, cable TV networks, NFL and syndication was between 8.5% and 9.0%

CBS led the networks with an average 11.5% CPM increase in primetime, followed by ABC at 10.0%. Fox broke out of the box first with a lower than expected CPM benchmark, although its primetime performance at 9.5% was equal to the primetime market average. Both CBS and ABC packaged some deals at the high-end of the pre-Upfront pricing range of 14.0%, but also made some deals at a lower than expected 7.0%. For the first time this year, I am reporting both average CPM inflation and the high and low range of deals with individual marketers. As I've reported, average CPM increase data is highly misleading. Certain advertisers have legacy deals that are highly advantageous to the networks. Competitive categories such as automotive, beverages, fast food, theatricals and fast food place pay premium prices for selected network inventory. In their negotiations, networks will often accept lower CPM increases in return for larger shares of these marketers' budgets. So while CPM gains may be reduced, total network revenues are increased.

Conversely, categories such as consumer packaged goods that pay historically lower unit costs, are under pressure to pay higher CPM increases and networks often limit the amount of inventory they make available to these advertisers, pushing them down to second and third tier media outlets. In this year's Upfront market, networks chose to sell a larger share of their inventory than in last year's Upfront, slightly depressing the market but taking advantage of strong demand. Had the networks held out for higher double digit increases, advertisers and their agency negotiators may have reduced total Upfront commitments and shifted budgets to the scatter market.

According to our sources, all but a fraction of Upfront commitments have been confirmed and the options (cancellations) taken for fourth and first quarter inventory have been minimal.

Jack Myers Media Business Report

2011-2012 National TV Upfront CPM Inflation Data

Source: Jack Myers Media Business Report
2011-2012 National TV Upfront CPM Inflation Report
Data aggregated from multiple sources.Data rounded to the nearest .5%

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