Facebook, Google and Amazon are poised to capture the lion's share of growth in 2018 and 2019 U.S. ad spending, according to a survey of more than 1,200 U.S. brand marketers and agency executives conducted by Jack Myers TomorrowTodayfor MediaVillage. The survey, conducted in the 4th quarter, asked respondents to identify how likely they are to increase investments with 55 individual media companies in the next 12 months. Facebook ranked first with 64% of qualified respondents stating increases were probable/definite, followed by Amazon and Google/YouTube with 55% responding positively. Ranking fourth was Hulu, with 43% likely/probable to increase investments. The fifth ranked company, AT&T Adworks, dropped to 38%, followed closely by Roku and Oath.
In a separate economic report on advertising, shopper marketing and trade communications being distributed to MediaVillage members this week, Jack Myers TomorrowToday reports that "excluding mobile/apps advertising, Olympics, World Cup and election year spending, real 2018 ad spending growth is estimated to be only 2.2%-2.7%, compared to 2016 and 2012 growth of 6.1% and 2014 growth of 4.2%." The 2018 economic realities for the ad economy are flat to slight increases for media companies that are unable to capitalize on election-/Olympics-year cyclical growth. Jack Myers TomorrowToday projects overall 2019 ad spending, excluding mobile/apps advertising, will decline 1.0%-1.5%. Mobile is projected to increase 20% annually to $42.3 billion in 2019.
The new 2018 MediaVillage Survey of Advertiser and Agency Executives on Perceptions of 55 Media Companiesreports that only an average of 23% of respondents expect any budget increases for media categories other than the top three digital players (Facebook, Google and Amazon). Only 11% of respondents say they are unlikely to underwrite increases for these three companies.
The data below reflects the percent of respondents to the MediaVillage study saying they will "probably and definitely increase and not increase" spend by media category. MediaVillage members receive specific data for their company, along with metrics on how their organization, value and support services are perceived in eleven performance categories among 24 respondent groupings.