Halfway Observations of The Passing Parade: Tomorrow Will Be Televised: - Simon Applebaum - MediaBizBloggers

We're a bit beyond the halfway mark of 2010. Time to check on the donuts circulating here and there, crucial to concluding how this first year of a new decade could end up:

***At least one giant step back amid the giant steps forward. Place this in the "when will they ever learn" category: Madison Avenue is back in business rewarding broadcast and cable networks with increased upfront money for the fall season ahead, no matter their rating or programming quality performance this past season. It looked like those ad agency buyers and media planners learned their lesson for good in 2009, when recession push came to shove, by cutting or cutting back upfront commitments. So much for a good lesson learned. We're back to such nonsense as NBC reportedly getting 18% percent more upfront dollars for 2010-11, amounting to $1.6-1.7 billion, despite the lousy season (Sunday Night Football aside) it endured. Does anyone remember The Jay Leno Showdebacle?

When the performance or quality of a publicly-owned company does not cut in, that company's stock takes a plummet on Wall St. Why isn't the ad agency world holding networks to the same accountability? After bringing this point up several years ago in a column printed elsewhere, I'm still awaiting an answer.

***The more you observe, the more you conclude that 2010 is the year interactive TV gets mass reach nationwide. Every major TV set maker, cable operator, satellite operator and overbuilder will offer their customers various flavors of interactivity, from caller ID on the TV set to Facebook, Twitter, even Wikipedia (check out Mitsubishi's latest models). Yes, there are some set distributors on the sideline waiting for this and 3D to prove their audience worth. But there's no dispute that at long last, ITV will get its decades-in-the-making shot at national success. We'll even see interactive TV advertising from Canoe and other players.

***The age of 3D services has started--ESPN first off last month, and DirecTV quick on the draw with its first of three channels up July 1. Next to go: Discovery/Sony/Imax's full-time network this fall or early 2011, unless someone else gets enough gumption to horn through. Looks like one or two million 3D sets will be shipped to retailers this year; 11.7 million sold annually by 2015, Insight Group predicts. No one's giving stats on how many people are buying 3D sets, or watching World Cup coverage that way, but people tracking the inside buzz suggests the pace of set purchases is above expectations. Again, looks like every major set maker will have 3D models out by December, at prices around $2,000-2,500.

***Skype and Cisco Systems are poised to launch video telephony services before the year is over. Panasonic is among a growing TV set crowd making product capable of showing Skype-made phone calls on the set using Webcams. What you may not know is that Skype has released a developer kit to people who want to dream up imaginative applications for this service. How about a personal assistant available on call to help look for bargains, make travel reservations or compare restaurants, with the help of computer graphics? Or watching multiple people play the same game you're playing at that moment, while watching the game itself? Can you say another IPhone/IPad/Android-style app store in the making?

"There's a fertile opportunity here," acknowledged Skype platforms general manager Jonathan Christensen during the Consumer Electronics Association's LineShow event in New York last month. What remains to be seen: will cable and satellite operators be able to play in this developing sandbox, especially when Cisco is one of the big-two digital converter suppliers to them? ***And then there's Google TV. The countdown is on for Google to whip up and distribute its open-source interactive TV platform this fall through Sony TV sets and set-top boxes available at first to Dish Network's 14 million customers. One TV set executive tells me Google TV will "have significant market share when they come out," thanks to who's marching alongside them (Intel, Best Buy, Logitech, Adobe, etc.). Watch this space.

Less than six months from now, we'll find out if 2010 marks the linchpin of the most transformative decade in television's run, or prelude to a mass flameout of promising opportunity. To paraphrase President Obama, yes we will.

Until the next time, stay well and stay tuned!

Simon Applebaum is producer/host of Tomorrow Will Be Televised, the Internet radio/podcast-distributed program on the TV scene. The program runs live Mondays and Fridays at 3 p.m. Eastern time/noon, Pacific time over www.blogtalkradio.com, with replays archived at www.blogtalkradio.com/simonapple04 and podcasts downloadable through ITunes.com, Zune.net and other Web download sites arranged by Sonibyte. Teachers and schools now can pick up Tomorrow for classroom use at www.ciconline.org/podcasts. Have a question or comment? Reach out to simonapple04@yahoo.com.

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