Idol Chatter: Does "American Idol" Still Have "It," or Is It Now Just a Fading Star? - Ed Keller - MediaBizBloggers

Season 9 of "American Idol" started off with a flurry of buzz, following Simon Cowell's announcement that this season will be his last. But once that short term buzz wore off (and short-term it was – with just a three-day spike in online chatter), the larger question is what type of success "American Idol" is likely to have this season and beyond.

To shed light I have looked at the word of mouth trends for "American Idol" over the past several seasons. The results show that while the dynamics of its word of mouth have shifted, it remains a force to be reckoned with. Predictions of its demise may well be premature.

There is no question that "Idol" was a larger word of mouth force in the mid 2000s and lost some of its buzz by 2008 and 2009. More specifically, the percentage of people talking about "Idol" while it is on the air dropped by nearly 40% from 2007 to 2008, and then stabilized at about the same level over the course of last season. However, in a sign of resiliency, "American Idol" WOM peaked at higher levels during season finale week of 2009 than the 2008 season. In fact, the 2009 peak matches what was seen during the end of the 2007 season.

Further, "Idol" remained the most talked about TV show during the January – May months when it is on the air during each of those seasons, far ahead of its nearest competitor. What is more, it has been among the most talked about brands across any category during the time it's on the air – it was the 20^th most talked about brand in 2007, dropping somewhat to a still respectable #27 in 2008, and the same in 2009.

What has changed more dramatically than the volume of word of mouth over the past few years has been the dynamics of WOM about "Idol." In the mid 2000s, it was a show that people watched and then talked about the next day at work or school. In 2007, for example, the majority of conversations about "Idol" were with co-workers or friends, while fewer than half (45%) were with family. In each of the succeeding seasons, conversations with co-workers have dropped, with 2009's levels being less than half of what we saw in 2007. Meanwhile, by 2009 fully two-thirds of conversations about "Idol" were with family members. As a result, we see that the venues where conversations take place have shifted as well, and an overwhelming majority of talk about "Idol" now takes place at home, with a corresponding drop in conversation at work or school.

At the same time as conversation about "Idol" was beginning to shift from the workplace or school to home, the "quality" of WOM began to improve dramatically. In 2007, conversation was far more polarized than it was last season – with conversations about the program more likely to be positive and less likely to be negative in tone.

So what does this mean? "American Idol" may not be the buzz machine it once was, a show that dominated not only when it came to ratings, but water cooler conversation as well. What is has become, however, is a show that people still watch and discuss as a family. And as that transition has taken place, the conversations have turned far more positive. What will happen to the show after Simon Cowell retires is hard to predict. But for now, "Idol" still enjoys both a quantity and quality of word of mouth that most television networks would gladly accept.

Ed Keller, CEO of the Keller Fay Group, has been called "one of the most recognized names in word of mouth." The publication of Keller's book,The Influentials, has been called the "seminal moment in the development of word of mouth." Ed can be contacted at ekeller@kellerfay.com.

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