InteracTiVoty: Can NBC Make Jay Leno TiVo-Proof? - Evan Young - MediaBizBlogger

The 2009 network Upfronts have come and gone. One of the most talked about programming innovations was NBC's decision to place Jay Leno at 10pm weeknights. It's easy to play armchair quarterback and examine the multiple reasons why NBC made this choice: lower programming costs, increased promotional and advertising opportunities, difficulty competing against the 10pm programming on ABC and CBS, etc. The reason that caught our attention at TiVo, of course, was NBC's intention to make the 10pm hour "DVR-proof."

It has been well-documented this year that the 9pm hour is the most competitive and oft-recorded, with the multiple effects of depressing the 9pm live viewing rating (because viewers watch one show and record another), and depressing the 10pm live viewing rating (because the recorded 9pm show is watched at 10pm). 9pm weekdays is the hour in which most of the networks placed their most popular serialized dramas, the non-reality "watercooler" shows. 24, Lost, Grey's Anatomy, Fringe, Heroes, The Mentalist – all 9pm shows.

Now imagine you are a reliable TV viewer with a DVR (hopefully a TiVo DVR) in Fall 2009. If you have the choice of watching your recorded 9pm "watercooler" show at 10pm the same evening, or watching Jay Leno live at 10pm, which show are you going to watch? It depends, I suppose, on who Jay's guests are that evening, but even if I'm a Jay Leno fan, I'm probably recording Jay at 10pm, while I'm watching the recorded 9pm watercooler show. After all, I need at least 46 minutes to watch the watercooler show, but depending on who Jay's guests are, I probably need less than 46 minutes to watch the parts of Jay's show that I want to watch. I can still be done by 11pm or maybe 11:15pm. Even if Jay has another Hugh Grant watercooler moment, I'll be able to watch it on my TiVo DVR. If I forget to record Jay, the clip will be on Hulu.com and/or posted to YouTube.

Now, I'm not saying that NBC won't achieve some kind of success with Jay Leno at 10pm. But in an age in which we are measuring live+24hour, live+3day, and live+7day ratings anyway, why try to beat the DVR? A program needs to have enough promotion that it is picked up by its core audience, demographic, whatever you want to call it. And then you need to put it in the place (or nowadays, multiple places) where they are most likely to consume it. If production values matter, then hopefully that is the television, in HD. But the growing popularity of online venues for television such as Hulu.com, ABC.com, and MySpace for viewing, as well as the broadband viewing of shows on TiVo (through our partners at Amazon Video On Demand and Netflix) shows that viewers refuse to be shackled to the schedule or even to the broadcast delivery mechanism.

Some broadcasters are beginning to take this into account. FOX made the somewhat surprising, but also heartening, decision to renew Dollhouse by including DVR and online viewing in its evaluation. Now, FOX still has the challenge of figuring out how to make the revenues follow in non-broadcast outlets, but it's getting a head start in terms of re-valuing its viewers' behavior. By 2012 there will be more than 50% DVR penetration in U.S. TV households. Viewers under 30 are watching more video online than on TV. The networks should get comfortable with viewing during times and places other than the original broadcast, because soon, more than half of viewers will be doing that.

In a way, the traditional broadcast networks have something to learn from basic cable about the definition for success. Shows such as The Closer (TNT), Burn Notice (USA), Mad Men (AMC), and Damages (FX) are repeated often in the week of their initial airing. This has the benefit of working as a "poor-man's-DVR" for households that don't have one, as well as providing additional advertising opportunities (as opposed to just a single broadcast). Shows are given time to develop and find their audience, as opposed to being cancelled after a couple episodes if they don't perform. Of course the cable networks have a different cost structure; they don't all have to worry about affiliates, news divisions, or programming 50+ hours a week of original shows. But they have also learned that you can't depend on the live rating for a single showing Wednesday night at 9pm to justify the existence of a program.

What we've learned at TiVo, through both our DVR and broadband download/streaming efforts, is that TiVo viewers are passionate about their shows, and they will watch them in whatever way best suits them -- live, recorded, downloaded, or streamed. They make the time to follow a show like Dollhouse, even if that show is on Fridays at 9pm, when the core demographic for that show is likely to be out of the house. And now that shows are available for download and streaming, they will pay to watch episodes of shows they've missed, or to start new shows that have gotten good word of mouth from the beginning. Surely those non-live views should count for something.

Evan Young is Director of Broadband Services at TiVo Inc.

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