Is 2023 the Breakthrough Year for Video Game Transmedia in TV and Film?
While 2023 is officially the Year of the Rabbit, there's a strong chance Hollywood will look back on it as the Year of Video Game Shows. It is jam packed with major TV and film releases based on popular game franchises. And while history has shown that there's no guarantee that the majority of them will prove lucrative, two shows debuting early in 2023 suggest it could be a standout year.
Among the more noteworthy is HBO's new series The Last of Us, based on the action-adventure PlayStation game of the same name, and Universal's The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which is set to hit theaters in April.
The Last of Us is the most anticipated TV series of 2023, according to Whip Media. That finding is based on users of Whip Media's TV Time, a tracking app with more than 24 million global users that took stock of how anticipation was building ahead of the series' January 15 premiere. Fan anticipation for The Last of Us eclipses other well-known 2023 releases, including Secret Invasion, the new Marvel miniseries coming to Disney+.
The show's premise sounds promising: The Last of Us will chronicle a smuggler named Joel (played by Pedro Pascal) who has the responsibility of leading a teenager through post-apocalyptic America.
The behind-the-scenes talent for the show is also noteworthy. Chernobyl creator Craig Mazin teamed with Neil Druckmann, the creative director of the original game produced by Naughty Dog, to write the first season. Add in the game's popularity among gamers, and it's easy to see why expectations are high.
Hollywood will be closely watching to see if fan anticipation translates into actual views. The Last of Us, after all, is set to launch on the heels of 2022, a mixed year for video game IP.
On 2022's positive side, Halo, based on the wildly popular Xbox franchise, showed how potent video game IP can be. The series set a Paramount+ viewership record in the 24 hours following its March debut, and later went on to become the second most watched original series in Paramount+ history, as of last June.
The situation was different for Netflix's Resident Evil series. It was the single most anticipated show based on video game IP in 2022, according to Whip Media's data. However, that momentum was derailed soon after the show was released due to lackluster audience reaction. The series dropped out of Netflix's Top 10 most viewed shows in its third week. It didn't resonate with fans and failed to honor the spirit of the franchise.
With that as a backdrop, it's clear why all eyes will be on The Last of Us. And with each episode reportedly costing north of $10 million, HBO is banking on the show becoming a hit. A successful first season could end up galvanizing other studios to invest more in bringing well-known gaming IP to TV -- and help assuage fears after Resident Evil's high-profile flop.
Similarly, The Super Mario Bros. Movie will be a bellwether, at least in the near future. The upcoming computer-animated flick sports a star-studded cast, including Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, and Seth Rogen. The movie ranks among the Top 15 most anticipated movies of 2023, according to Whip Media.
A box office smash is exactly what Universal needs from it, too, with the studio betting big on the iconic Nintendo franchise in 2023. Universal Studios is set to open a new Super Nintendo World amusement park early this year, and a strong showing from the movie would drive tourists to make visits in the spring and summer.
From a macro perspective, the new Mario flick holds the key to unlocking Nintendo's IP for transmedia storytelling. Nintendo is the de facto Disney of the gaming world. If Hollywood is incapable of staying true to its franchises, Nintendo would rather not make movies about them.
"If we can't make something interesting, we'll just call it quits," Nintendo designer and producer Shigeru Miyamoto explained in 2018, when asked about making a new "Mario" film.
On the other hand, a successful run for the new Mario movie could spur Nintendo to make content based on Zelda and other iconic characters.
History has already shown that merely putting "Mario" in the title isn't enough to guarantee success. You only need to look back to 1993's Super Mario Bros. to see that the live action flick failed to earn back its budget at the box office. Like Resident Evil, it was panned by both critics and fans. Ultimately, the movie's failure led Nintendo to closely guard its gaming IP for decades -- and shy away from Hollywood.
Sure, the upcoming Mario movie has more going for it than its 1993 predecessor, if only due to its star power. But like The Last of Us, it will need to deliver for fans if it's going to achieve success. If both can do that, The Super Mario Bros. Movie and The Last of Us just might spearhead the Year of the Video Game.
This article was written by Debbie Neveu, Senior Vice President of Global Transformation at Whip Media, a cloud platform for entertainment licensing, content planning, and financial operations. She can be reached at dneveu@whipmedia.com.
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