Is the Super Bowl Commercial Value a Coin Toss? - Greg DePalma-TiVo

Heads or tails?

Watch for the commercials… or the game?

Spend $3.5 million for thirty seconds in the big game… or a month of ads on cable TV?

Last year was one of the most exciting games in Super Bowl history and its TV ratings were astronomically high. Super Bowl XLV became the most-watched U.S. television program ever, and FOX became the first network ever to exceed 100 million viewers for a night in prime time. TiVo"s second-by-second analysis shows a steady rise of viewing as the game intensified. The data also pinpoints the engaging commercials with spikes like an EKG. In fact, the most watched commercial scored 44% more viewers than the lowest ranked ad in last year"s game.

The first commercial after the coin toss is always the most coveted Super Bowl time-slot, because statically it is the point of the game when the most eye balls are watching. The advertiser is guaranteed a highly engaged audience and has first-mover advantage to showcase their creativity. It is the Madison Avenue kick-off and sets the tone for Monday morning ad critics. At that moment Americans are glued to their sets, waiting to be entertained by funny and daring commercials.

By way of example, Bud Light led off last year with the coveted post-"coin toss" time-slot and purchased three ads in the first thirty minutes. The logic here is that running more ads in the first quarter hedges against the possibility that the game is lopsided or an early blowout, in which case viewers may literally tune it out. Also at play here, may be the concern that as the game wears on viewers may become more inebriated and, as a result, less likely to focus on (or remember) ads that run in the last quarter of the game.

A second-by-second viewership analysis of Super Bowl using TiVo"s data shows a significant difference in viewing levels compared with actual engagement with the commercials. Super Bowl Sunday viewers grasp the remote with white-knuckles during a game-winning field goal attempt, but more often Americans grab the remote to rewind engaging ads throughout the big game.

My first Super Bowl with a TiVo was 2004 when 4% of homes had this new device and predates my employment at the company. We were rewinding plays and commercials to get second and third looks at great plays and cleaver ads. As an ad guy I was quickly hooked on TiVo, yelling "rewind" during the commercial breaks in the second quarter.

This was also the year of the infamous Janet Jackson wardrobe malfunction. The next day I recall reading that "according to TiVo, the Janet wardrobe malfunction was the most replayed moment in the Super Bowl." To this date, Janet and Justin still hold the title for the most replayed moment in TiVo history.

Let"s see if Madonna can engage the halftime audience with her new single and retro hits like vogue and holiday. Heads or tails? Fast forward or rewind? Tune in Monday morning for the results.

Greg DePalma is Vice President of Audience Insights at TiVo Inc., where he consults with advertiser, agency, and network clients to increase commercial effectiveness in a DVR world. Greg can be reached at gdepalma@tivo.com.

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