Perception vs. Reality vs. My Friend vs. "The Twitter Effect" - Vincent Bruzzese - MediaBizBloggers

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There are some things that we know not to be true but we allow them to pervade our day-to-day conversations. We'll knock on wood to protect against something bad happening (if there isn't anything wooden, apparently the hardest nearby surface will also suffice). We'll think that the weather patterns conspire against us personally when it rains on the day we planned to go to the beach (evidenced by such utterances as "figured it would wait until today to finally rain"). We'll continue to believe Murphy's Law is one of the few constants left in the universe.

There are some things that we believe to be true, because a clever marketing campaign created that truth, despite the fact that it's clearly false. In fact, these implanted beliefs can get such a strong foothold in our minds that even with evidence to the contrary, we refuse to let go of what we now know to be false. The rise of "bottled water" sales in the past twenty years has been stratospheric. Despite the fact that in one-on-one taste experiments, those consumers cannot tell the difference been tap and bottled water, from stream water to filtered water to tap water. Even more alarming is that after being presented with this evidence, consumers continue to purchase not only bottled water, but a particular brand of bottled water. Similar effects can be seen for vodka or one of the most successful examples, "Diamonds are rare."

Then there are some things we believe to be true simply because everyone saysit is. This is the world of anecdotal evidence, otherwise known as, "my friend once tried that and…." Thus, while most people in their everyday lives require a certain degree of logic and evidence before accepting something to be true (i.e. nobody would eat a live snake to cure a headache simply because someone's friend did it successfully), there are some claims that slip under that standard. These claims generally soundtrue and on the surface they wouldn't qualify as something to be cynical about. This is where the world of perception lives, where those with the best spin can literally create reality. As an example, look at the following statements heard at a recent movie event in Los Angeles:

A) "DVR'S have reduced the effectiveness of movie commercials; something needs to be done to reverse that."
B) "Nobody is watching TV anymore; they are all watching shows on their computers, iPhones, iPads, iTunes" (seriously, the person said iTunes).
C) "The Twitter effect killed that movie, by Friday night everyone was tweeting about it."

They all sound reasonable. They are all wrong. They are perception.

Consider this:

A) 50% of those without DVR's do not stay in the same room as the TV during commercials of any kind. Almost all of those with DVR's remain while fast forwarding. 75% of those with DVR's rewind when they see a movie commercial to watch it. The math here is simple. Those with DVR's are MORE likely to watch movie commercials.¹
B) The second most prominent reason people watch TV shows online is because someone recommended a show to them that had already aired. Previously they would have waited for the DVD set to come out, but now they can watch the episodes online until they are caught up. You can guess what happens after they are caught up, right? They begin watching the show on TV.
C) My favorite. The Twitter effect. Well…..take a look:

"The Twitter Effect" is generally described as the use of the social networking tool, Twitter, to give real time updates as to the quality of a movie which has the potential to result in an immediate box-office impact. The most recent example usually given to illustrate this was Bruno. The follow up to Boratsaw a 39% decline on Saturday (a day normally known for having an increase over Friday's box-office numbers), giving the film a Friday to Sunday multiple of only 2.1 (compared to an average multiple of roughly 3.0).²

Is this type of decline a recent phenomenon?

While a precipitous drop in box-office from Friday to Saturday is not usual, there are also many "pre-Twitter" examples. Back in 2008 (when Twitter was relatively unknown), movies like Fun With Dick and Jane (50% drop Fri-Sat), Sex and the City (35% drop), Twilight (41% drop), and Saw V (30% drop) all saw similar declines. Even Hannah Montana: The Movie declined 41% despite the fact that young females are the least likely to have ever Twittered about a movie either during or after viewing it.²

Is Twitter a primary source of information about a movie to begin with?

No. While TV ads and trailers remain at the top with over 65% of respondents selecting those platforms, Twitter remains as informative as ads within a video game (10%)¹.

Since Twitter is real time updates, is it the place where moviegoers first hear about how much others liked a movie?

No. Face-to-face is WAY up top, Facebook is clawing its way up, and Twitter is on the bottom of a list of 15 different possible sources at 1%.¹

We know that word-of-mouth is influential, so how does Twitter rank on influence?

The least impactful word-of-mouth one could hear is from tweets of people they don't know well (roughly half cite this as the least impactful), followed by the second least impactful source of information: Tweets from those they DO know well (37%).¹

How do moviegoers spread word-of-mouth?

Not by tweeting it, I can tell you that. Only 8% choose this method of sharing their views on a movie's quality, which is the lowest ranked option. Face-to-face, Facebook, MySpace, Message boards, Blogs, etc…are all significantly higher.¹

The most surprising thing of all? After presenting this information to a room full of well informed executives in the entertainment industry, I hear in the hallway, "Well, my friend tweets from the theater all the time, and all I have to do is check it to find out about a movie."

Then again, out here in L.A. everyone has 1,500 followers on Twitter, drinks bottled water to rehydrate after a night spent with Grey Goose, and I won't even mention the size of their diamonds.

Vincent Bruzzese is President, Worldwide Motion Picture Group at Ipsos OTX MediaCT. He can be reached at Vincent.Bruzzese@ipsos.com.

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¹Data is from the Ipsos OTX Quarterly Moviegoer eXperience Study (TMX)
²Box office data is from boxofficemojo.com