Tackling Economic Uncertainty with Predictions and Market Intelligence

By MFM InSites Archives
Cover image for  article: Tackling Economic Uncertainty with Predictions and Market Intelligence

Jack Myers captured the mood of the advertising community with the headline on his new Marketing/Advertising Data and Forecast report: "Flat is the New Up." The Chairman of MediaVillage and MFM's partner in publishing MFMInSites.com came out with the 30th annual edition of the report recently. A complimentary copy was sent to all MFM members. (Thanks, Jack!)

The report provides an up-close look at actual results from 2021, final estimates for 2022, and forecasts for 2023. It's informed by insights from a survey of senior national agency decision-makers, including the most influential media buyers in the nation.

Myers estimates that final 2022 numbers will show a 7.1% increase in advertising spending, reflecting 6.1% growth of linear/legacy media and 7.8% growth of digital. More importantly, he forecasts a 6.3% decline in legacy/linear advertising in 2023, but a 6.5% increase in digital ad spending.

The predictions show the migration of advertising investments from traditional to digital media. And they underscore the importance of the Department of Justice's lawsuit against Google. The legal action attempts to rein in the tech giant's increasingly monopolistic power over advertisers and ad spends.

We are in the midst of very uncertain times. Turns out the inflation we were told was transitory has a longer shelf life than anyone expected. Although the Fed's delayed-but-persistent efforts to tame it by raising interest rates seems to be having the desired effect of reducing inflation and slowing down an overheated post-pandemic economy.

Well publicized layoffs in the tech sector are being offset by a stronger than expected labor market. I have been on every recent MFM Network teleconference, and there isn't one in which members fail to discuss the ongoing difficulties they are having recruiting, retaining, and motivating talented financial professionals. The second most popular topic on those calls: how to streamline processes and procedures in a way that cuts costs without reducing staff. According to the participants, the jury is still out on the impact of requirements for workers to come back to the office.

Combine those challenges with Myers' forecast and you can see why the entire media and entertainment industry seems to be walking on eggshells. Without clear signals, uncertainty feeds on itself. But there is one sure thing that's just around the corner: the 2024 elections.

Recessions don't affect the pursuit of political power. In 2024 the stakes, and the ad spending, will be enormous. Razor-thin majorities for the GOP in the House and the Democrats in the Senate will have to be defended. And the presidential race promises to be white hot. It's more than likely that every previous election-spending record will be broken, resulting in a banner year for the media industry.

The key question for financial executives is: What are you doing to prepare for that today? One proactive step you can take is register for the MFM CFO Summit, the Annual Conference, our twice-monthly webinars, as well as Member Network teleconferences. You'll gather as much information as possible about what's around the corner for this industry. And that knowledge will lead to better decisions on course corrections, revised tactics and innovative strategies.

Everything you need to put your membership benefits to work for you and your company is on the MFM website. Take a look, get engaged and gather the tools to navigate uncertainty.

Click the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friends.
The opinions expressed here are the author's views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillage.com/MyersBizNet.

Copyright ©2023 MediaVillage, Inc. All rights reserved. By using this site you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.