The 2024 Election Will Be a "Brand" Election

So, let's take a look at what the party brands seem to be today, based upon actions and messaging.

The Republican Brand

Seemingly anti-democratic

Anti-abortion

Against limiting gun ownership

Anti-immigrant [at least non-white]

Questionable on social safety net programs such as Social Security, Medicare and child care

Against taxing the wealthy

Climate change is a "hoax"

The Democratic Brand

Pro-democracy

For a woman's right to choose

For stricter gun laws

Generally pro-immigrants

Fully support social net programs such as Social Security, Medicare and child care

Want to tax the very wealthy and billionaires

Climate change is real and must be faced

Now, let's take a look at what the polls say about American citizens and voters.

Pro and Anti Democracy

A year ago, almost two-thirds of Americans thought that U.S. democracy was "in crisis and at risk of failing."

In a more recent, more demographically targeted poll, the same 64% of 18-29 adults thought that they have more fear than hope about the future of American democracy.

Pro and Anti-Abortion

Gallup Poll History of Abortion positions

This is interesting for several reasons. Historically those who believe abortion should be legal under any circumstances have always been at or above 50%, while those who think abortion should be illegal under any circumstances have been at a high in the low 20s to now the low teens. When "legal only under certain circumstances," which has moved from the low 20s to the now high 30s, is added to the "always legal" group it sums to 85%. If you put this same group with the "illegal under any circumstances" it is still less than "legal under any circumstances," 50% to 48%.

Gun Control

This shows a clear demarcation between the two brands.

Finally, a 2023 poll by Quinnipiac shows that 61% of American voters support stricter gun controls, the highest ever recorded. This poll also shows that 97% of those polled think there should be universal background checks and 97% of gun owners think this way. This poll also shows that 67% are for banning assault-style weapons and 29% against.

Immigration

A February 2023 poll about immigration shows that only 28% of people polled are satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the current immigration policy. Obviously, that means that 72% are not satisfied. This same poll showed that 40% of U.S. adults want immigration to decrease with only 8% wanting to increase.

Social Net Programs

Social Security

This is one issue that has a vast majority of Americans for something.

76% of all adults favor Social Security

83% of Democrats favor

72% of Independents favor

74% of Republicans favor

What is interesting is the percentages of these groups when asked whether Social Security should have increased spending.

57% of adult Americans favor increasing Social Security funding

66% of Democrats favor

53% of Independents favor

54% of Republicans favor

This issue shows a clear demarcation between what Republicans in Washington equivocate on and what even their own party, let alone the key group of Independents favor.

Medicare

70% of Americans favor Medicare

81% of Democrats favor

64% of Republicans favor

56% of Democrats would favor increasing funding

29% of Republicans favor increasing funding

Taxing the wealthy

This poll asked if "the very rich should be allowed to keep the money they have, even if that means increasing inequality." 54% of respondents disagreed.

This same poll found that 64% of respondents "strongly or somewhat agreed that the very rich should contribute an extra share of their total wealth each year to support public programs"--the essence of a wealth tax. This compares to 77% of Democrats and, interestingly 53% of Republicans who agreed. This is an interesting data point as the majority of Republicans are in disagreement with the Washington D.C. Republicans.

Climate Change

There is great party clarity on this issue. The advantage is clearly for the Democratic brand as the average for all U.S. adults is more than twice the Republicans.

Polling Summary

Of the seven categories listed at the top of the column, the Democrats are in alignment with the general public on six of them. Only Immigration seems to tilt to the Republicans.

Conclusion: Brand Democratic is much more in line with adult Americans relative to the issues.

Now let's take a look at some of the candidates for the presidency and where they stand relative to these issues.

Of the three frontrunners, only Biden aligns with the majority positions of Americans on all issues except immigration. The plethora of Republican candidates entering the race for president have yet to fully position themselves on all seven issues. So far, they seem to align with the positions for Republicans stated at the top.

What if none of the three frontrunners get nominated, for whatever reasons? This would mean that there would be a lot of candidates in both parties with much lower name recognition. Through the course of primary season in 2024 all candidates would work to establish name recognition and to break out of the pack. This is where brand will be important as a lesser known candidate who becomes better known after the conventions will still be subject to the party positions.

I ran this idea about 2024 being a brand election by someone whose credentials at the national level of politics are impeccable and whose thinking I highly respect. This person agreed, but pointed out that, in the end, the election will be decided by "300,000 voters in swing states." This person went on to suggest that this group would most likely be moderates or independents. This implies a lean to the Democratic brand per the research above. On some of these issues, adults in general percentages are above what the Republican positions are and less than the ones held by Democrats.

This is important as deeply red states will probably stay red and deeply blue states will stay blue. The swing states will decide the election and it looks, at this point in time, like the Democratic brand seems to be much stronger than the Republican brand.

Finally, name recognition at the top of tickets is much better than down-ballot. We have all voted for judges, school board members and county commissioners without knowing who they are and what they stand for. When one doesn't know the candidate, they tend to vote for the party they prefer.

If this stays true up to November 2024, it could be a landslide victory for the Democratic brand.

Posted at MediaVillage through the Thought Leadership self-publishing platform.

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