Upfront Update: Midway Observations from the Upfront Parade PLUS Buyers' POV - Simon Applebaum

There are plenty of 2011 Upfront presentations to attend, then dissect through over the next month-and-a-half, including that marathon week of broadcast/cable/Latino TV showcases in mid-May. Yet already, more than halfway through this annual cycle of media activity, there's no question about a few directions this medium is taking.

More original programs, no matter the month.

Cable networks from ABC Family to Syfy to FX are clear they're at the point of drawing viewers away from broadcast networks any time they want, even in the fall. Now it's a matter of putting shows on and having enough original material year-round.

More networks are willing to take scripted chances

Rainbow Media's IFC and Sundance Channel, which have dipped their toes in this field over the last 18 months, are diving in. So will VH1, TV Land, BET, TVOne, The Hub, BBC America and mun2, to name a few. Even Hallmark hints a desire to supplement its made-for-movie strategy with made-for series. Future possibilities: Oprah Winfrey Network, HBSC and the just-announced Bounce TV and mNet.

More scripted series from more players to fill this appetite.

It's not just the big studios and independents like Lionsgate firing up original drama development. It's the reconstituted Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, Miramax and Weinstein Co.; format du jour meisters Fremantle Media and Endemol; and such reality series hitmakers Bunim-Murray, Zodiak USA, Cineflix and Studios Lambert. What's more, if cable networks turn their projects down, they have alternative routes to go--DirecTV or Netflix two growing examples. Beyond all this action, there'sNew Voices, the unique collaboration among programmers and the Humanitas organization to pilot new series from emerging authors.

Online talk up, but multi-platform talk is on pause or mute.

Video-on-demand and interactive TV applications usually got some airtime during Upfront pitches over the last few years. So far, not so. Funny that's happening, given more than half of the country's TV households can access VOD, choosing up to 25,000 programs a month from their multi-channel distributor, and racking up 10 billion viewers last year. Meantime, interactive TV is more available than ever, through every set maker, cable operator and DBS provider. Wider access, with ventures like Google TV poised to break the marketplace wide open if they get their ducks in order, yet people aren't speaking up.

Back to a rising tide lifts all boats mentality over Upfront spending.

Here comes the return of every broadcast and cable network finding Santa in the form of more Upfront money, after two years or flat or declining results. Just when you thought the ad community would finally mirror what Wall Street does by habit--reward networks who perform better than the year before and cut back on channels which don't--we're headed to old times again. Media buyers participating at an IRTS forum in New York last month (moderated by MediaBizBloggers founder Jack Myers) believe the TV Upfront pot will be around 16-18 percent sweeter than spring 2010.

MEC managing director Gibbs Haljun dissents with that general opinion, because of a still-fragile general economy. "I'm not sure the market can take double-digit increases when there's rising inflation in the commodity basket," he says. "Are consumers willing to pay 40 percent more for cotton shirts we advertise? There's warning signs out there." "One good thing about the scene is that our partners come to us less with cookie-cutter ideas, and more broad, innovative strategies," adds UM executive vice president Dani Benowitz.

Whatever happens with this Upfront, buyers are going to increasingly be catalysts for different aspects of the program production game, from development to social media promotion. "There's an accountability that hasn't been fully unleashed," notes Starcom president Mike Rosen. "Consumers don't have definitions any more of whether a program is broadcast, cable, digital or online. We shouldn't either. It's not about the channel. It's about the human experience. Let's find ways to make art and commerce work together."

Until the next time, stay well and stay tuned!

Simon Applebaum is host/producer of Tomorrow Will Be Televised, the Internet radio/podcast-distributed program about the TV scene. The program runs live Mondays and Fridays at 3 p.m. Eastern time, noon Pacific time, overwww.blogtalkradio.com, with replays 24/7 atwww.blogtalkradio.com/simonapple04. Podcasts are available via ITunes.com and other Web sites arranged by Sonibyte (www.sonibyte.com). Have a question or reaction? E-mail it tosimonapple04@yahoo.com.

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