Welcome to 2009. TV, Advertising and Media Face Their Transformational Era

Welcome to 2009. There is hardly a glimmer of positive news for the global and national economy. President-elect Obama will be challenged to create a national consensus behind his vision for a renewed sense of purpose and focus on the future. We in the media and advertising industry should also define our vision and have a renewed sense of purpose.

The federalized U.S. financial system is primed for more bad news throughout 2009, virtually assuring a continued recession well into 2010 and probably beyond that for the advertising business. It will be at least 36-months before we can experience realistic benefits from a nationally mandated refocusing on innovation and investment in environmental studies, energy development, medical advances and infrastructure improvements. We can expect several band-aids such as Congress imposing a floating gas tax system to stabilize consumer gas costs at $5 or $6 per gallon while allowing oil prices to fluctuate. A debate over an advertising tax is on the horizon. Military ad spending is likely to be cut. It will be years before automotive ad spending will reverse its decline. The auto industry first needs to invest in smaller hybrid, electric and energy-efficient cars even as we spend less time driving and traveling, impacting the travel industry ad spend. There is an underlying fear that in 2009 and 2010 we will witness thousands of storefronts, restaurants and businesses closed and empty, hotel chains, offices and manufacturing plants boarded up. In media and advertising, we can expect bankruptcies, consolidation and dis-integration of conglomerates and holding companies. The dominoes have just begun to topple.

The fallout from the Bush administration and the seemingly non-stop disclosures of illegal, unethical, immoral and destructive behavior across the corporate, financial and regulatory worlds have made it difficult for the country to maintain an upbeat attitude. Further disclosures seem inevitable. Americans must transition to a new personal economic modality that carefully calculates the cost of consumerism rather than celebrating it. Ostentatious wealth and unearned celebrity will no longer be rewarded by an envious society. Creation of wealth at the expense of civility and the fundamental pillars of human relationships can no longer be condoned. We all need to integrate greater global awareness and mutual respect for each other into our daily lives. Our nation and our world need a complete recalibration.

So, too, does the media industry need to recalibrate and rethink its future and purpose. Celebrity-based reality TV series and Page Six style gossip have seen their day. Their relevance will quickly deteriorate in a society that is less 15-minutes-of-fame centric. Reality series that dehumanize and humiliate participants will no longer be ratings winners. Series that focus on crime and the underbelly of society will wane in relevance. Programming that elevates the sick, the perverse and the depraved will no longer find enthusiastic audiences. While audiences for Fox's 24 will be smaller than ever, Sci Fi's Battlestar Gallactica will finally be recognized as one of TV's great series and Americans will continue to seek out pure escapism when it is well-written, intelligent and features strong characters and storylines.

Although NBC's decision to move Jay Leno to 10 PM ET has questionable long-term implications, it is consistent with a national spirit that needs comedy and variety, and I expect the move will be both successful and a forerunner of more network variety programming. American Idol, Dancing with the Stars and other entertainment-based programming will become even more embedded in the TV landscape. Music will again find itself at the center of our culture. How-to programming that actually teaches us how to accomplish something worthwhile will be valued. Uplifting and spiritually-based programming that features positive stories of human achievement, performance against the odds and people who give back to society will be more successful than ever.

News programmers will need to balance viewers' desire for positive stories with our eagerness to uncover and punish those who have contributed to our national economic downfall. Reporting on the increase in crime that is inevitably about to unfold will need to be balanced with reporting on justice meted out to criminals. The national appetite for revenge and punishment will need to be served by media. Locally, reporters will need to shift away from coverage of local fires and car crashes and center on investigative journalism, uncovering stories of corruption and misuse of public trust as well as positive stories that contribute to the community's sense of pride and well-being.

While user-generated content and social programming/networks will continue to be the fastest growing segments of media, we simply need to acknowledge they might exist for reasons other than creating wealth for their executives and investors. The example has been set by Craig Newmark of Craig's List, who has focused on the social rather than the economic value of his service. Cable and satellite distributors, phone companies and Internet providers need to shift their priorities from how they can best soak Americans for increased monthly fees to how they can deliver maximum social, cultural and economic value to Americans through technology enhancements. The initiatives being undertaken by Canoe Ventures and others should emphasize consumer value before advertiser value. The potential for advanced interconnectivity and user-friendly viewing experiences promised by TiVo and others should be supported aggressively by TV networks and distributors with a vision of how they can best serve their viewers rather than an unhealthy and unrealistic adherence to past models that focus on how they can best serve advertisers. They should set a new purpose and vision for the future and build new economic models that are consistent with that purpose.

Marketers should quickly and definitively integrate their marketing and sales organizations to adapt to new communications realities, and hire those agencies and advisors who offer the most coherent, intelligent and visionary perspective for doing business in the world of 2012. Then develop transformational strategies that enable you to sustain your business during these interim years of economic downturn.

A Prayer and a Toast As We Welcome 2009: Although this year may be the worst year economically that any of us have experienced or will experience, may it be a fulfilling, safe, secure and successful year for you. May you view the economic realities you confront as an opportunity to recalibrate your own life and career, to refocus your energies, and to set forth with a renewed sense of purpose and a clear vision for the future. 2008, 2009 and 2010 will be the most interesting and transformative years any of us will experience in our lifetimes. May we look back at them as times when we envisioned the opportunities and defined a positive future for ourselves, our families and our careers. Amen.

Share your comments with Jack Myers at http://www.jackmyers.com/commentary/media-business-report/37082199.html#comment or directly at jm@jackmyers.com.