7.3% Ad Growth Forecast for 2014. 2013 Ad Spend only +0.8%.

By The Myers Report Archives
Cover image for  article: 7.3% Ad Growth Forecast for 2014. 2013 Ad Spend only +0.8%.

Scroll down in this report for our 2014 advertising spending forecasts by medium and 2013 preliminary spending data. There are three separate reports below – for legacy media, digital media spending, and combined total advertising investments. We will be issuing future reports on our long-term forecasts, below-the-line marketing and promotional spending, and Hispanic Media.

According to the MyersBizNet market analysis, combined legacy and digital advertising spending increased only 0.8% in 2013 compared to our original forecast of +1.3%, representing combined total legacy and digital ad spending of $180.5 billion. MyersBizNet is forecasting overall ad spending growth for 2014 of 7.3%, reflecting 2.4% increases in legacy ad spending across eleven traditional media categories and 20.3% year-to-year growth in digital spending across the 11 media categories plus ten additional digital and non-traditional media categories.

Even with reported 4.1% growth of GDP for 2013, total marketing investments (above and below-the-line) declined 1.0% from $584.7% to $578.8% The declines resulted primarily from reductions in shopper marketing, direct mail and trade promotion, plus non-political year decreases in local media. While most of the projected increases in 2014 spending are targeted to digital media, network cable TV and local spot television will have high single-digit growth.

MyersBizNet forecasts that above-the-line advertising investments will increase an average 5.0% annually through the end of the decade, although total marketing investments will be flat to slightly down. Marketers are increasingly moving below-the-line budgets into digital investments, with a meaningful share of these shifts going to the digital assets of legacy media companies. This shift in focus represents a major opportunity for advertising and media agencies, and especially for media agencies that develop resources for implementing promotional and direct-to-consumer shopper marketing.

By comparison to the MyersBizNet data, Magna Global reports 1.5% advertising growth in 2013 and forecasts 5.5% growth for 2014.

MyersBizNet Media Business Report 2014
Official Marketing / Advertising Spending Data 2010 - 2020
COMBINED LEGACY, DIGITAL, NON-TRADITIONAL SPENDING
UPDATED 01-06-14  Data reported in 000,000      
Includes spending from all sources including "legacy" (traditional),digital and non-traditional marketing spend within each category20132014
% Change$% Share% Change$% Share
Newspaper Advertising (Print + All Platforms)-5.0%24,68613.7-0.1%24,65112.7
Local & National Spot Broadcast TV(All Platforms)-13.0%21,00211.69.9%23,08011.9
Cable/Satellite Network Television (All Platforms)8.3%26,13114.57.3%28,0314.8
Broadcast Network TV (All Platforms)-3.5%19,01410.53.0%19,58210.1
Consumer Magazines Advertising (Print + All Platforms)-0.9%16,4139.10.6%16,5048.5
Terrestrial Radio (All Platforms)-5.1%16,0878.92.4%16,4678.5
Media Directed Social/Promotion/Sponsorships/Native10.2%7,8644.412.0%8,8084.5
Branded Entertainment/Product Placement6.4%7,1784.05.0%7,5373.9
Out-of-Home/Place-Based (excl. Cinema & D-OOH-V]5.4%7,6434.24.8%8,0104.1
Business-to-Business Magazines (Print + All Platforms)-7.6%5,1972.9-5.3%4,9242.5
Online Originated Display (Banner) Advertising6.0%7,4014.15.2%7,7864.0
Local/Regional Cable TV (All Platforms)-4.2%4,9822.84.2%5,1942.7
Broadcast Syndication (All Platforms)-1.0%2,3671.3-3.3%2,2871.2
Social Marketing/WOM/Conversational Marketing40.0%4,6202.635.0%6,2373.2
Videogame Advertising/Virtual Currency18.0%1,6010.920.0%1,9211.0
Mobile & Apps Advertising (incl. Mobile Search)80.0%4,1462.360.0%6,6333.4
Cinema Advertising (All Platforms)11.0%7990.47.0%8550.4
Digital Place-Based Video Media (excl. cinema)13.8%9550.512.6%1,0760.6
Internet Originated Radio 38.0%8830.538.0%1,2190.6
Online Originated Video Content Advertising 40.0%1,3720.860.0%2,1951.1
Interactive, VOD & Addressable TV Advertising40.0%1670.140.0%2330.1
TOTAL - U.S. Only0.8%$180,506100.07.3%$193,606100.0
Source: MyersBizNet Media Business Report© copyright 2014     
MyersBizNet, Inc, Jack Myers and employees accept no responsibility for any action(s) taken as a result of this forecast.   
2013-2020 are estimates. Hispanic Media Data will be issued separately.     
Facebook display ads included in display category.      
References: Barclays Capital, BIA/Kelsey, CAB, Carat, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Equity Research, DMA, eMarketer, Goldman Sachs, GroupM, IAB, JPMorgan Chase,
Kantar Research, Universal McCann/Magna Global, Morgan Stanley, MPA, Needham Research, Nielsen, PQ Media Alternative Media Research Series,
PriceWaterhouseCoopers, TAB, TvB, UBS, Verona Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast, Wachovia, , DP-AA, Miller Kaplan, Wedbush, Zenith Optimedia, .
**Excludes World Cup Revenues; Includes political revenues      
This forecast includes Olympics, NFL, NCAA and other sports programming  
       

Click for full size report


MyersBizNet Media Business Report 2014
LEGACY ADVERTISING SPENDING (excluding Digital)
Official Marketing / Advertising Spending Data 2010 - 2020
UPDATED 01-06-14  Data reported in 000,000      
"Legacy" refers to revenues generated for traditional non-digital advertising and marketing spend within each category20132014
% Change$% Share% Change$% Share
Newspaper Advertising -8.6%20,15115.3-4.0%19,34514.3
Local & National Spot Broadcast TV-13.8%20,06415.29.8%22,03016.3
Cable/Satellite Network Television 8.0%25,00919.08.2%27,06020.1
Broadcast Network TV-5.2%17,43813.21.0%17,61313.1
Consumer Magazines Advertising -3.0%14,58711.1-2.5%14,22210.5
Terrestrial Radio -6.4%14,93111.31.0%15,08011.2
Out-of-Home/Place-Based 4.5%7,0835.43.6%7,3385.4
Business-to-Business Magazines -10.0%4,5763.5-8.0%4,2103.1
Local/Regional Cable TV -4.5%4,8263.74.0%5,0193.7
Broadcast Syndication -1.5%2,2561.7-4.0%2,1661.6
Cinema Advertising 11.0%7980.67.0%8540.6
TOTAL - U.S. Only-4.4%$131,718100.02.4%$134,936100.0
Source: MyersBizNet Media Business Report© copyright 2014      
MyersBizNet, Inc, Jack Myers and employees accept no responsibility for any action(s) taken as a result of this forecast.   
2013-2020 are estimates. Hispanic Media Data will be issued separately.      
Facebook display ads included in display category.      
References: Barclays Capital, BIA/Kelsey, CAB, Carat, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Equity Research, DMA, eMarketer, Goldman Sachs, GroupM, IAB, JPMorgan Chase,
Kantar Research, Universal McCann/Magna Global, Morgan Stanley, MPA, Needham Research, Nielsen, PQ Media Alternative Media Research Series,
PriceWaterhouseCoopers, TAB, TvB, UBS, Verona Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast, Wachovia, , DP-AA, Miller Kaplan, Wedbush, Zenith Optimedia, .
**Excludes World Cup Revenues; Includes political revenues      
This forecast includes Olympics, NFL, NCAA and other sports programming      
       

Click for full size report


MyersBizNet Media Business Report 2014
DIGITAL & NON-TRADITIONAL SPENDING ONLY 
Official Marketing / Advertising Spending Data 2010 - 2020
UPDATED 01-06-14  Data reported in 000,000      
Excludes "Legacy" spending generated through traditional non-digital advertising spend within each category20132014
% Change$% Share% Change$% Share
Newspaper Advertising(Print + All Platforms)15.0%4,5369.317.0%5,3079.0
Local & National Spot Broadcast TV(All Platforms)10.0%9381.912.0%1,0501.8
Cable/Satellite Network Television(All Platforms)15.0%1,1222.320.0%1,3472.3
Broadcast Network TV(All Platforms)20.0%1,5763.225.0%1,9703.4
Consumer Magazines Advertising(Print + All Platforms)20.0%1,8263.725.0%2,2823.9
Terrestrial Radio(All Platforms)15.0%1,1562.420.0%1,3872.4
Media Directed Social/Promotion/Sponsorships/Native10.2%7,86416.112.0%8,80815.0
Branded Entertainment/Product Placement6.4%7,17814.75.0%7,53712.8
Out-of-Home/Place-Based(excl. Cinema & D-OOH-V]18.0%5601.120.0%6721.1
Business-to-Business Magazines(Print + All Platforms)15.0%6211.315.0%7141.2
Online Originated Display (Banner) Advertising6.0%7,40115.25.2%7,78613.3
Local/Regional Cable TV (All Platforms)8.0%1560.312.0%1740.3
Broadcast Syndication(All Platforms)10.0%1110.210.0%1220.2
Social Marketing/WOM/Conversational Marketing40.0%4,6209.535.0%6,23710.6
Videogame Advertising/Virtual Currency18.0%1,6013.320.0%1,9213.3
Mobile & Apps Advertising (incl. Mobile Search)80.0%4,1468.560.0%6,63311.3
Cinema Advertising (All Platforms)15.0%10.015.0%10.0
Digial Place-Based Video Media (excl. cinema)13.8%9552.012.6%1,0761.8
Internet Originated Radio 38.0%8831.838.0%1,2192.1
Online Originated Video Content Advertising 40.0%1,3722.860.0%2,1953.7
Interactive, VOD & Addressable TV Advertising40.0%1670.340.0%2330.4
TOTAL - U.S. Only18.2%$48,788100.020.3%$58,670100.0
Source: MyersBizNet Media Business Report© copyright 2014      
MyersBizNet, Inc, Jack Myers and employees accept no responsibility for any action(s) taken as a result of this forecast.   
2013-2020 are estimates. Hispanic Media Data will be issued separately.      
Facebook display ads included in display category.      
References: Barclays Capital, BIA/Kelsey, CAB, Carat, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Equity Research, DMA, eMarketer, Goldman Sachs, GroupM, IAB, JPMorgan Chase,
Kantar Research, Universal McCann/Magna Global, Morgan Stanley, MPA, Needham Research, Nielsen, PQ Media Alternative Media Research Series,
PriceWaterhouseCoopers, TAB, TvB, UBS, Verona Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast, Wachovia, , DP-AA, Miller Kaplan, Wedbush, Zenith Optimedia, .
**Excludes World Cup Revenues; Includes political revenues      
This forecast includes Olympics, NFL, NCAA and other sports programming      
       

Click for full size report


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