Advertising is Dead; Behold Its Rebirth - Ed Castillo - MediaBizBlogger

Consumers are killing traditional advertising with their remote controls, DVRs and Internet connections, but in so doing they are spawning a far more powerful path to persuasion for marketers (whose messages are increasingly being optimized by unwitting consumers).

In the pre-DVR past, marketing communications interrupted otherwise valuable media-based experiences; you implicitly agreed to watch TV spots because they were couched in programming you wanted to see.

Many marketers have bemoaned the rise of content-gates -- time-shifting, location-shifting and Internet video, to name a few -- and have thrown their hands up in the name of "media fragmentation." Fragmentation is seen as a source of expense and frustration for markers seeking critical mass for their messaging. (A recent article I read in Reuters begins with the sentence "We all know media fragmentation makes it harder than ever to reach today's over-media-extended consumers.")

This move from "passive media" to "customized media" (see figure above, compliments of PHD's Mark Himmelsbach [@himmelsblog]) requires the participation of the viewer; and in choosing when/where/how to receive their content, viewers can avoid the kind of messaging that typifies the era of passive media (most notably the :30 spot). This worries marketers who are committed to passive media.

To others this presents a huge opportunity. In addition to limiting the kind of content they receive, viewers who filter their content are also customizing their content, which gives marketers invaluable insight into their wants and needs.

So, while I might be upset that you have avoided my one-size-fits-all ad, I'm ecstatic that you've told me what you really want to see, hear or read.

Web-based services like Pandoraand StumbleUpon are great examples of customized content. Users actively participate in the development of their own content filters by providing preferences and rating suggested content in real-time, which further customizes their content, allowing the services to 'learn' about viewer preferences.

In addition to helping Pandora and StumbleUpon, and even YouTube, serve up content that the user is pre-disposed to enjoy, these filters can be used to initiate and sustain powerful, "sticky" messaging efforts.

Imagine, say, Apple serving up messages about design to those who like to stumble through design sites, messages about CPU horsepower to power users, messages from Mac-using celebrities to those who follow celebrities, music-utility-based messages to practicing musicians, etc., etc.

As these filtering mechanisms mature – and we begin to knock on AI's door – the inferences these algorithms make about individual users will become more and more nuanced (my own use of StumbleUpon suggests to me that this isn't very far down the road; I'm already loving about 80% of the sites it suggests for me). When these filters are sufficiently predictive and become ubiquitous, we will enter an era of new passivity.

All of which, of course, will be brought to you by brands.

In the era of new passivity, viewers will sit back and welcome media content that has been selected for them; only this time, they will have carried out its selection over time (during the era of predictive media). What will distinguish this new passivity from the passivity of the '60s, '70s and '80s is that it will be welcomed by the viewer (after all, they will effectively be programming their own programming).

Messaging within the context of new passivity will be powerful as well. Messaging that is tailored to the specific interests of the viewer will be seamlessly woven into content that the viewer is pre-determined to like.

So while some see the end of advertising in the fragmentation of media and the rise of interactive digital media, I see its beginning. In addition to the 360-degree revolution of 'passivity' to 'activity' to 'new-passivity,' this vision of media's future represents a sort of 360-revolution in what it means to "advertise." Before modern media, advertising consisted primarily of word-of-mouth appeals; someone you trust telling you something interesting, tailored just for you. As modern media mature in the era of new passivity, consumers will again receive tailored messages from someone they trust…namely themselves.

By Ed Castillo, SVP, Director of Account Planning at PHD Media, a Division of Omnicom. You can follow Ed @xandnotx