Emmy Predictions Part One: Big Wins for "30 Rock," "The Amazing Race" and Emmy Host Neil Patrick Harris

Following several consecutive Emmy Awards telecasts that have been poorly produced and painful to watch, the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences this year faces a titanic two-pronged task: It must regain the support and respect of the very industry it honors and the audience it wishes to attract. It must also find a way to appease the broadcast networks that carry the Emmys now that so many quality cable programs are routinely (and deservedly) winning so many major awards. The Academy seems to understand the magnitude of these challenges, as indicated by the changes it has implemented in recent months, with results that have been alternately promising and problematic. Indeed, the ups and downs have been striking.

On the upside, the number of nominees in certain categories was increased (there are seven each in the categories of Outstanding Drama Series and Outstanding Comedy Series, and six nominees in each of the series acting categories). On the downside, even though the Academy made more room in key categories, the three best dramas on television last season – The Shield, Battlestar Galactica and Friday Night Lights – received no major nominations! Continuing with the Academy's wild ride, it announced last month that eight categories included in the traditional Emmy telecast would be handed out before the live show and that highlights from those eight acceptance speeches would be inserted into the prime time Emmycast on September 20. The idea didn't seem half bad, in that it would reduce by eight the number of segments in which winners stand, receive congratulations from those around them, make the long walk to the stage, receive more applause and then make long speeches thanking their lawyers, agents, managers, mothers, etc. This plan might have freed up time for the addition of some actual entertainment in the show, or at least for more of those clips viewers seem to crave. But the time-shifted honorees would have included writers and directors and their respective guilds cried foul. The plan was quickly scrapped.

One great move amid all the noise and nonsense that has met with universal praise, and rightly so, was the selection of Neil Patrick Harris as host of the ceremony. This is a huge win for CBS, the network that will televise the show this year, because Harris stars in one of its hottest and youngest-skewing series, How I Met Your Mother. Harris was nothing short of sensational as host of this year's Tony Awards, another entertainment industry event that was in dire need of critical new energy. It is hoped he will erase painful memories of recent hosting misfires, including Ryan Seacrest in the round in 2007 and the shocking spectacle in 2008 of five popular reality show hosts trying to share co-hosting duties without benefit of a script. The latter was a major Emmy fail.

Harris can only help Emmy reverse the ratings erosion it has suffered in recent years and grow its audience, a mandate for all involved. On that note, I have long wondered why the annual Emmy ceremony has not included performances by popular competitors from Fox' American Idol and ABC's Dancing with the Stars. They are the biggest and brightest and most interactive shows on broadcast television and they generally draw larger audiences than any original programs on cable. Audience favorites from NBC's America's Got Talent might also appear. Since the Emmys are telecast on the broadcast networks, and because the broadcasters always complain about quality cable programming stealing their thunder by winning so many awards each year, wouldn't a showcase for some of broadcast's most popular personalities soften the blow?

Speaking of cable, expect it to once again dominate the Emmys this year in the Drama series, movies and miniseries categories. (I'll address those in tomorrow's column.) Collectively, the broadcasters won't be happy about that, but if Emmy gets the Comedy and Reality awards right it should be a good night for CBS, NBC and Fox, at least.

Here are my predictions:

Outstanding Comedy Series: NBC's 30 Rock

CBS' The Big Bang Theory is bizarrely absent from the nominees in this category. Had it been included I am certain it would have won. Unless there is an upset by one of this category's novelty nominees (Fox' Family Guy, HBO's Flight of the Conchords) expect a third consecutive win for NBC's most valuable series.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: Jim Parsons of CBS' The Big Bang Theory

Previous winnersAlec Baldwin of 30 Rock and Tony Shalhoub of USA Network's Monk are formidable competitors, but Parsons is the one to beat for his riotously inventive performance as frenzied nerd Sheldon on television's funniest show.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: Toni Collette of Showtime's United States of Tara

I can't think of any reason why Toni Collette will not take home this award. She played the most challenging role on television: A woman with four dramatically disparate personalities (five if you count the creepy Gimme). I'm sure the Academy will be tempted to once again honor Tina Fey of 30 Rock, but she will likely be named the Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series for her funny and influential portrayal of Governor Sarah Palin on NBC's primetime special Saturday Night Live: Presidential Bash 2008, so this one should go to Collette.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: Neil Patrick Harris of CBS' How I Met Your Mother

Kevin Dillonof HBO's Entourage is way overdue, and with four-time nominee and three-time winner Jeremy Piven left out of the running he may have a shot. But this feels like Harris' year: It would be foolhardy for the Academy to ignore the hottest star in this category.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: I have no clue!

I'd like to see Kristen Wiig honored for her work on NBC's Saturday Night Live, but since Emmy passed on her SNL co-star Amy Poehler in this category last year there is no reason to believe that it will go with Wiig (or repeat nominee Poehler) this time. If Wiig can't have it then I think the delightful Kristin Chenoweth of ABC's Pushing Daisies should be recognized, if only to give that uniquely wonderful and regrettably short-lived series a sweet send-off.

Outstanding Reality – Competition Program: CBS' The Amazing Race

Still a marvel of on-location production and direction, The Amazing Race is on track to take home its seventh consecutive Emmy in this category.

Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality-Competition Program: Jeff Probst of CBS' Survivor

My preference in this category is the ultra-smooth Tom Bergeron of ABC's Dancing with the Stars. But Emmy picked Probst last year and will likely do so once again.

Outstanding Reality Program: Bravo's Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List

Okay, broadcast can't own the entire reality arena on Emmy night, mainly because it has no nominees for Outstanding Reality Program. Emmy loves Griffin, making her the front-runner here.

Check out the complete list of nominees for the categories mentioned in this column.

Tomorrow: My predictions in the Drama Series, Movies and Mini-Series categories.