Odds Now Favor Competition in U.S. TV Ratings: Part 7 – Bill Harvey

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Why Competition Never Possible Before is Now Likely — A Multi-Part Series. (Read parts 1-6 here.)

Nielsen’s TV audience measurement system has proven itself invulnerable to competition for the better part of a century. What has changed today that makes competition more likely?

Fundamentally, Nielsen itself has changed. Those changes were discussed inPart 2.

The competition has also changed. Those changes were discussed inPart 3 andPart 4.

In Part 5 we reviewed how the players are positioned and in Part 6 I shared my personal views on what each of them does best.

In this installment, we consider what each of these players will be doing in the near future. Based on a combination of their announcements and our own speculations:

PlayerPossible Near-Future Moves
Nielsen·      Deployments of PPM used for TV out-of-home measurements fused onto base service;
·      Fusion extrapolation of PPM sample into other markets and to total U.S.;
·      Continued modest expansions of TV+digital panel and of mobile panel;
·      Fusion of more of the 34 Nielsen panels into a single fusion-based view of TV+digital+mobile+radio+CPG purchase;
·      Just announced that OTT will be reported at least for a client’s own properties.
comScore·      Expansion and further validation of the Blueprint Calibration panel;
·      Publication of data indicating that overlaps among media are extremely nonrandom especially for key target groups;
·      Publication of compilation of anonymized case studies from custom work showing communications effects and self-reported purchase/viewing of promoted products/shows;
·      Expansion of mobile panel.
Simulmedia·      Continued industry leadership hosting events and facilitating collaborative positive change;
·      Expansion of free online services to industry, helping brands and networks to evaluate alternative media approaches and simulate their business effects;
·      Use of TV behavior to create psychographic segmentologies useful to networks and brands.
Rentrak·      Movement into household level matching with purchase data à la TRA;
·      Other patents relating to set-top box data;
·      Comparison of box office outputs with advertising inputs;
·      Publication of dimensional trend data analyzing broad patterns in VOD data;
·      Publication of validation data showing local market data more stable than Nielsen and cases where more plausible than Nielsen.
TRA/TiVo Research·      Near-doubling its sample sizes while moving all data to the cloud;
·      Increasing its ties with DMPs and other digital entities to make its data easily and quickly available for programmatic/all digital buying;
·      API and Data Room enabling client’s own modelers to do ROI analytics at household level with complete privacy protection;
·      Larger sample size of TV+digital+mobile+purchase direct match data (already the largest);
·      Updated validation of representativeness of weighted projected sample;
·      Faster reporting including overnight and near-realtime;
·      OTT measurement.
Symphony Advanced Media·      Reports based on tracking competing brands and their use of 4 screens, social, search, and the results on store/showroom visits;
·      Reports deriving generalized findings about trends in 4 screen and social usage behavior;
·      Integration of its technology into MSO/satellite/telcoTV deployments to massify sample sizes across all screens, social, search, GPS;
·      Integration of its technology into the online communities of networks and brands;
·      and integration of its technology into one or more or possibly all of the other players’ samples.

In the installment coming up next, what is my personal recommendation to the industry for making optimal use of these services?

On Tuesday, March 3, I will be leading a free special ARF seminar/webinar with David Poltrack and Dave Morgan, about how to make more money from advertising produced sales with my new Ninefold Path to Marketing Transformation. Click here for information on how to join us.

Bill Harvey is a well-known media researcher and inventor who co-founded TRA, Inc. and is itsBill HarveyStrategic Advisor. His nonprofit Human Effectiveness Institute runs his weekly blog on consciousness optimization. Bill can be contacted at bill@billharveyconsulting.com

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