Post-Strike Programming: Will the Networks Overcompensate?
By Ed Martin
The television industry's three-month nightmare is over. Now things are going to get really interesting.
The end of the WGA strike comes at a particularly challenging time, with only fourteen weeks left before the end of the May sweeps period and the conclusion of what is known as the “traditional” broadcast television season. Series that have been in repeats for a few weeks or are about to enter premature rerun cycles are racing back into production on new episodes that will be telecast sometime in April and/or May.
The unbridled enthusiasm is understandable. On the surface it would seem that by April viewers will be starved for fresh episodes of their favorite shows. But that may not prove to be true. It seems to me that, in most cases, there is little gain to be made by rushing series back into production simply to put a few original episodes on air during the last few weeks of the season. For one thing, there will still be several weeks of reruns between now and then, and viewing patterns will have shifted or been somehow altered before original episodes return. In other words, viewers will have already accepted the reality that their shows of choice are “done” until next season and moved on to other things. Why further confuse the matter? Also, the well isn't completely dry -- not yet, anyway. The networks have been holding onto hand-fulls of many series, doling out original episodes where and when they see fit. (Some examples: The CW still has four new episodes of Smallville and two of Supernatural in its pipeline. Fox is holding onto four fresh Bones. CBS has six more episodes each of Jericho and The New Adventures of Old Christine. Etc.)
As far as the 2007-08 season is concerned, I believe that it may be too late for the broadcasters to fully revive interest in most of their scripted series and that, as Fox will do with 24, NBC with HeroesandChuckand ABC withDirty Sexy Money,most of their dramatic franchises should be rested and the focus should be on relaunching them bigger and better than ever next fall (or, in the case of 24, next January). Viewers will not forget them, and they will come back to them after a prolonged break if they are properly promoted and well produced. The idea that absence makes the heart grow fonder still applies.
What viewers will likely not support is short-term bursts of their favorites. Last year, shows such as Heroes, Lost and Jericho suffered significant ratings erosion after lengthy in-season breaks that came about for reasons having nothing to do with the strike. (In previous seasons, popular shows such as Everwood and NYPD Blue were similarly clobbered by long in-season hiatuses.) If the networks cannot deliver uninterrupted 12 or 13 episode runs that conclude by mid-May -- now a physical impossibility -- they are not going to achieve the results they desire.
In addition, and as always, most of the excitement and media attention during the last few weeks of this season will be focused on the final installments of reality titans American Idol, Dancing with the Stars and Survivor, not to mention Big Brother 9 if the audience becomes caught up in the sun, skin and sex of it all during the next few weeks of winter weather. Idol and Dancing, in particular, will crush any scripted shows that run opposite them, originals or otherwise.
Also remember that interrupted series will be returning during the first few weeks of daylight savings time, when television usage begins to decline even in the best of times. We saw this happen to a particularly alarming degree last year, when daylight savings time was moved forward by several weeks. Ratings for most hour long scripted shows including the immensely popular Heroes and Ugly Betty, then both vital freshmen, began to slip. (Even American Idolsuffered!)Viewers were moving into summer lifestyle mode and away from the entertainment options of the winter.
That's not to say summer programming is guaranteed to fail. Quite the contrary, basic cable networks enjoyed a sensational summer last year, enticing viewers and critics alike with such well received scripted series as AMC's Mad Men, ESPN's The Bronx is Burning, Lifetime's Army Wives, TNT's The Closer and Saving Grace, ABC Family's Kyle XY, USA Network's Burn Notice and Psych, Sci Fi Channel's Eureka, FX's Rescue Me and Damages and Spike's The Kill Point. It's just that these shows were promoted as scintillating summer fare rather than spillover shows from in-season.
So what should the networks do? First, they should get their shows back into production as soon as possible and bank those new episodes for next fall, should another crisis develop. (See below.) Second, they should adhere to their respective strike contingency plans through mid-May and concentrate on putting together exciting lineups for the summer months. (NBC is already out in front on this, with a third season of America's Got Talent and its plan to import Nashville Star from USA Network.) They must strive to find the next Survivor, Who Wants to Be a MillionaireorDancing with the Stars -- all successful shows that ran first as summer series and were later moved in-season. New scripted series and miniseries should also be considered. (If the cable networks can do this, so can the broadcasters.)
Then, the nets should utilize their powerful summer schedules as promotional platforms for the new and returning series of fall 2008. But they know that already.
Even the most popular broadcast shows can become vulnerable overnight. Rushing them back into production and then pushing new episodes onto network schedules for a few weeks and then taking them away again won't do most of them any good at all.
Meanwhile, there is something else that network and studio executives should be concentrating on at this time: Making certain that members of the Screen Actors Guild have no reason to go on strike come June, when their contracts expire. (That's the crisis referred to above.) The television industry and related businesses cannot suffer a second prolonged work stoppage without sustaining truly devastating long-term damage.
Ed Martin
Ed Martin is the chief television and content critic for MediaVillage. He has written about television and internet programming for several Myers publications since 2000, including The Myers Report, The Myers Programming Report, MediaBizBloggers a…
