Quantifying SVOD's Impact on Traditional TV -- Pivotal Research

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We have reviewed respondent-level data from Nielsen related to consumption of traditional TV among homes with subscription video on demand (SVOD) services (Netflix, Amazon Prime and Hulu) and those without subscriptions to those services during weeks at the end of each quarter from 4Q14 through 1Q17. It is reasonably clear that declines in consumption of traditional TV are more significant among homes with SVOD services than in those without them. However, despite the significant growth in access to SVOD services over the past few years, consumption of traditional TV programming has not been affected to the degree that many might expect.

Overall, the data we have analyzed reinforces our view that any expectations around the "death of TV" because of SVOD services are likely overstated. Homes with SVOD services are reducing consumption of non-internet-connected-device-based TV faster than homes without SVOD services, but not by much. Including consumption via internet-connected devices, homes with SVOD services are exhibiting more favorable overall TV consumption trends as their SVOD services grow their share of TV consumption in SVOD homes. Further, we note that if forms of TV consumption not included in this data (mostly the consumption which occurs on non-TV-based devices) were included, we might see stability or even growth in professionally-produced video content consumption within SVOD homes.

Separately, we can also observe that the relative stability of the SVOD home consumption levels of TV vs. the composite over a period of significant growth in SVOD service penetration suggests that these services probably don't cause a reduction in consumption as much as they attract households who are already relatively light consumers of traditional TV.

Additional commentary and data related to our analysis follow in this note.


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