The Last Upfront - Gene DeWitt - MediaBizBlogger

By Gene Dewitt Archives
Cover image for  article: The Last Upfront - Gene DeWitt - MediaBizBlogger

In the next year it will become clear that the upfront has become extinct, of no practical value in the future.

By next Spring we will have become accustomed to buying time when we want. All buys will be guaranteed as to audience delivery so one of the major positive attributes of the upfront will be gone. In addition, advertiser demand will cede most choice of programming to the largest spenders. Other media buyers will have to be content with the promise of achieving an audience within a range of prequalified programs or genres.

The crashing economy will slacken demand to the point that those advertisers satisfied by average ratings and programming fare will be comfortable with the reduced CPM inflation that the market will afford them. Those who can guarantee huge sums to the networks will have access to the few high-rated television platforms but at premium even punitive pricing with requirements for commitments required not only in the TV vehicle but also in related offerings on the Internet, on Cable, perhaps even in print, radio and out-of-home.

In order to attain the added value elements of sponsorships and product placements, advertisers will need to be in the mega circle or to establish investment and operating relationships with program producers and distributors on Cable, the Net and/or Syndication. These arrangements will require a major concentration of these advertisers limited ad budgets in fewer media vehicles, thus greatly reducing the reach of their advertising. On the other hand, well produced and promoted sponsored vehicles will balance smaller overall audiences with a high concentration of high quality, engaged viewers.

Interactivity, especially on the Internet, will make the video platform a much more effective marketing tool than television.

Other major developments we can expect in national television in the coming years will be the irrelevance of Nielsen in the face of a new audience measurement system based on set-top boxes and PC’s and the replacement of Donovan Data Systems as the industry’s computerized stewardship system as all media work to make ad placement verification electronic and seamless.

The last paragraph should be considered an early April Fool’s joke or just plan wishful thinking. It’ll all happen but certainly over a much longer time frame than we can visualize today.

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