Originally published January 2012
In January of 2009, in my first report of the year, I wrote "There is hardly a glimmer of positive news for the global and national economy." Is the advertising and media business better off today than it was three years ago? Without a doubt! And we can look forward to the next several years with enthusiasm, excitement and a positive economic outlook. Our challenge as an industry is not to embrace change. We have done that and done it reasonably well. Our challenge is to embrace the young Digital Natives who are entering our business, encourage them, support them, and empower them with responsibility and authority. Our challenge is to accept the reality that technological changes have already completely disrupted the business and understand that infrastructure and foundations remain strong. Rather than looking forward with fear and trepidation, we can look forward to strengthening these pillars with new and better digital support.
Our industry is now fully committed to digital transformation. It's no longer a question of "if" or "when." It's "how" and "how much." A few years ago, "change agents" were invited onto the stages of industry conferences and into executive offices and respectfully listened to, but not necessarily heard. In the past couple of years, "change agents" were more popular at these events, and were often hired and asked to bring their change wizardry into corporations. But they were typically kept at arms' length and often chewed up and spit out within months. In 2012, a change agent is an anachronism, unnecessary and often irrelevant. Change is no longer subject to debate and is a redundant and mostly irrelevant topic at conferences (conferences that still invite change agents as keynoters are themselves irrelevant). Change is simply a reality that every executive in every corporation needs to deal with. Change no longer requires consultants and experts. It requires a few 22 to 26-year olds with social media skills. It requires managers with the focus to acquire and partner with digital businesses, and it requires the understanding that all media and all advertising is moving toward a digitally-centric business model.
In January 2009, I also wrote "Marketers should quickly and definitively integrate their marketing and sales organizations to adapt to new communications realities, and hire those agencies and advisors who offer the most coherent, intelligent and visionary perspective for doing business in the world of 2012." Here we are in 2012 and on a scale of 1 to 10, some marketers have moved the needle forward to 3 or 4, but most remain locked in traditional organizational structures. A handful (the largest marketers among them) have made organizational transformation a priority. But digital still represents less than 10% of total U.S. marketing communications budgets and the hockey stick upward curve of digital marketing investments remains three to four years away. Those companies that do not take advantage of this 36-month window will struggle to play catch-up just as those who have not shifted their focus in the past 36-months are playing catch-up today.
In January 2010, two years ago, I wrote to subscribers "Mass media is a sustainable business, with marketers still projected to spend an average $230 billion annually during this new decade to communicate ad messages through traditional mass audience channels. But that is less than the $250 billion spent on advertising in 2007, and media buyers will become more aggressive in demands for scale, cost efficiencies and operational ease." The proactive integration of demand side platforms, real time bidding and media exchanges into the business of digital media buying and selling will accelerate. These models will inevitably extend into traditional media and force greater commoditization of those media that are encumbered with greater supply than demand. The most important priority for media suppliers is "demand creation."
In my first commentary of 2011, I wrote: "An important trend is the increasing value to marketers of media brands that have relevance to and are trusted by their audiences.While increasing media supply is a dominant industry trend, the most important trend for the long-term economic health of the industry is the growing power of media brands."
In 2012, Facebook will become one of the largest public offerings in history. Its value as a media brand is at least equal to if not greater than its massive global audience reach. Apple and Amazon have emerged as relevant media brands and partnerships with them are eagerly sought by marketers and their agencies. Legacy media companies such as CBS, Comcast NBCU, Disney and Clear Channel that are reinforcing the relevance of their content brands will continue to outperform (both on Wall St. and Madison Avenue) those media companies that depend primarily on traditional audience reach and frequency.
In 2012, marketing analytics resources will break-through as dominant tools for both marketers and media sellers. Online video, social media, social TV, social gaming, commerce, digital transaction technology, media retargeting techniques and tools, audience aggregation networks and tools, and mobile engagement will continue to capture both attention and growing revenues. CBS, through the work of David Poltrack and George Schweitzer, continues to lead the industry in underwriting and supporting innovative research, marketing and promotional resources such as those offered by Marketshare, Simulmedia, TRA and others. The surprise growth medium of 2012 could be hyper-local media, as the mistakes of AOL's Patch and others are understood and corrected by companies like Digital First (formerly Journal Register Company). Local retailers continue to invest $10 to $12 billion annually in print-based community newspapers and pennysavers, plus several billion more in coupon mailers (such as Val-Pak). This is an industry that is primed for digital conversion, but it requires a refocusing by hyper-local media companies away from community news coverage to a local commerce and merchant orientation. (Full disclosure, I have invested in hyper-local commerce company HeresYourNeighborhood.com.)
We are far more upbeat as an industry in January 2012 than we were in 2009. I wrote three years ago that "Americans must transition to a new personal economic modality that carefully calculates the cost of consumerism rather than celebrating it. Ostentatious wealth and unearned celebrity will no longer be rewarded by an envious society. Creation of wealth at the expense of civility and the fundamental pillars of human relationships can no longer be condoned. We all need to integrate greater global awareness and mutual respect for each other into our daily lives. Our nation and our world need a complete recalibration." The Occupy Wall Street movement, the 99 percenters and the Arab Spring reinforce the need for corporations and individuals to recalibrate their messaging and priorities. Yet, traditional wealth creation structures remain firmly entrenched and the political battles are raging. In politics and in the advertising and media business, as Digital Natives gain responsibility, the scales will tip toward a growing focus on the recalibration of organizational models and business priorities.
Two of the 2011 accomplishments of which I am personally most proud are the formation of the Newhouse Network, a professional development council organized by the S.I. Newhouse School of Communications at Syracuse University, and the creation of the Jack Myers Women in Media Mentoring Initiative. Chaired by Ed Wise of Funny or Die, the Newhouse Network is dedicated to encouraging college grads to enter the media and advertising business and supporting their transition from academia into the business world. I'm also pleased to be working on a collaborative program with the Newhouse School and Sir Martin Sorrell and his team at WPP to explore opportunities for bridging the gap between academia and the professional advertising business.
Thanks to the support and active involvement of more than 150 women in media and advertising, the Women in Media Mentoring Initiative hosted three events in 2011 and we are looking forward to six more events in 2012, plus several small gatherings hosted by members for focused mentoring discussions. Please visit the Women in Media Mentoring Initiative Facebook page to view photos from the events and please "like" us.
The Women in Media Mentoring Initiative is unique in that we recognize members as both a mentors and a mentees. Our goal has been to gather together women who are in the early stages of their careers with those who have achieved a level of accomplishment and success, and to recognize that both groups have much to learn from the other. The skills and social resources of digital natives are as valuable and important to future career growth as are the knowledge and organizational experiences of those who have been in the business for decades.
Happy 2012 and please share with me your comments, observations and what you are looking forward to in 2012. Comment at www.jackmyers.com or e-mail jm@jackmyers.com