Cinema Predictions - Alex Petrilli-TiVo

During the past year TiVo has been studying box office performances in relation to the fast-forward rates of movie spots - and the correlation between the two is undeniable. Fast-forward rate is simply the percent a spot is skipped during live plus seven days of time-shifted viewing. On average the fast-forward rates for movie spots, which are traditionally some of the most popular commercials on television, range from 12-17%.

 

We first took notice of this correlation in September of 2011 when the latest "can't miss" SarahJessica Parker film I Don't Know How She Does It was set to open. The fast-forward rate almost jumped out of our TiVo Stop||Watch portal with a 20.4% rate. This was unusually high for a theatrical release. Not surprisingly, the box office followed suit opening at #6 for the weekend of September 17, 2011, scrounging up $4.4 million. The Avengers amassed a total of $4.4 million on a Tuesday afternoon… in Des Moines.

As we investigated further we found the theatrical advertising fast-forward rate, prior to a film's open, provides some insight into box office performance. In short, it can tell you whether the film will be showing on your next flight or not.

The next movie that made an inglorious debut was the remake of multiple remakes, The Three Musketeers. From Summit Entertainment the film boasted an international cast including Orlando Bloom and Milla Jovovich, and yet the initial fast-forward rate during the week of September 19, 2011 was 20%. As was reported in Movie spots are a critical element in determining a film's success or failure during the opening weekend, so it is surprising to see how repetitious they have become. Creative campaigns are few and far between, but when they deliver it can be the difference between a strong open and "Today's feature on our flight will be Larry Crowne Returns."

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Alex Petrilli

Alex Petrilli serves as senior manager of media insights at TiVo. In this role, Alex is responsible for utilizing the vast data resources available at TiVo to convey valuable information about the television industry and viewing trends. Prior to TiVo Alex wo… read more