Ed Martin's Drama Preview and Predictions
I'm approaching the annual Emmy Awardsfrom a different perspective this year, because for the first time in the twenty years that I
have been writing about television programming I don't care who wins! It's not that I've lost interest. It's simply a reflection of the state of the art. Yes, I'm calling it art. There were so many terrific series on television last year and so many exciting performances that this time around the recognition that really matters came in being nominated.
As always there were significant WTF oversights in most categories – CBS' The Big Bang Theoryand FX's Damagesnot being acknowledged with nominations for Outstanding Comedy Series and Outstanding Drama Series, respectively; Katey Sagalof FX's Sons of Anarchyleft off the nominee list for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series; Josh Hollowayof ABC's Lost, Justin Chambersof ABC's Grey's Anatomyand John Nobleof Fox's Fringemissing from the nominees for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series; Sandra Ohand Chandra Wilsonnot being recognized in the Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series category for their sensational work on Grey's Anatomy; Peter Facinelliof Showtime's Nurse Jackienot making the cut for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series.
But look at the nominees in the drama and comedy categories listed below– and then tell me it isn't damn near impossible to single out one show or performer in each that are significantly better than the rest. That said, it's time for the increasingly hazardous annual ritual of predicting the shows and performers that will win, while also indulging in one last opportunity to state who or what should win.
Outstanding Drama Series
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Dexter (Showtime)
The Good Wife (CBS)
Lost (ABC)
Mad Men (AMC)
True Blood (HBO)
Prediction and Preference: Mad Men
Nothing sucks the excitement out of the Emmys faster than for the same show (or performer) to win year after year after year, but there's no getting past the fact thatAMC'sendlessly engaging period piece is one of those handful of shows in the history of the medium that simply gets better with age. While even the best shows begin to ripen and rot by their third or fourth season, Mad Mencreator Matthew Weinerisn't afraid to make major changes to his narrative structure each year, with consistently spectacular results. From what I've seen of Mad Men this summer it won't surprise me to see it clock its competitors, whatever they might be, at the 2011 Emmys, too.
As much as I support Mad Men, AMC's other red-hot drama, Breaking Bad, may be the winner here, because it delivered two of the three best individual hours of television drama during the Emmy eligibility period. Those would be One Minute and Fly. (The other top hour was The Son, an emotionally dismantling episode of DirecTV/NBC's Friday Night Lightsthat towered above all else.)
All praise for AMC's dazzling dramatic duo aside, I'll be equally pleased if CBS' unashamedly grown-up legal drama The Good Wifetakes home the prize. It certainly deserves whatever love the industry chooses to send its way, and a big broadcast win in this all-important category might silence those insiders who continue to carp about cable programs dominating the Emmys. No matter that they generally deserve to do so.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights (DirecTV/NBC)
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad (AMC)
Matthew Fox, Lost (ABC)
Michael C. Hall, Dexter (Showtime)
Jon Hamm, Mad Men (AMC)
Hugh Laurie, House (Fox)
Prediction: Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Preference: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
If Michael C. Hallis ever to receive an Emmy for his work on Showtime's Dexterit will happen this Sunday, because he's coming off wins at the Golden Globe Awardsand the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Hall excitingly stepped up opposite a bone-chilling turn by the incomparable John Lithgowas the latest serial killer to invade his character's domain. But my own choice would be Jon Hammwho, like fellow nominees Hall and Hugh Laurie, is seriously overdue for recognition here. And then there's Bryan Cranston, as much a potential three-peat winner as Mad Men. It's not his fault that he's so fine in the role of a lifetime.
Come Sunday, I really shouldn't complain about a win for any of these talented guys over the rest – and neither should you!
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights (DirecTV/NBC)
Glenn Close, Damages (FX)
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit (NBC)
January Jones, Mad Men (AMC)
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife (CBS)
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer (TNT)
Prediction: Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Preferences: Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer; Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
If anyone is going to block the formidable Glenn Closefrom a third consecutive win its The Good Wifestar Julianna Margulies, like Michael C. Hall already a Golden Globeand SAG winner for her work during the nomination period. She's certainly deserving of the honor, but I've been waiting forever for Kyra Sedgwickto take home an Emmy for her uniquely entertaining work on The Closerand for Connie Brittonto simply be nominated for her sublime portrayal of a small town working mother on Friday Night Lights, so I'm standing by them.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age (TNT)
Michael Emerson, Lost(ABC)
Terry O'Quinn, Lost (ABC)
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad (AMC)
Martin Short, Damages (FX)
John Slattery, Mad Men (AMC)
Prediction: Martin Short, Damages
Preference: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
I'm reasonably certain that the competition here comes down to Martin Short's revelatory work on Damages and Aaron Paul's harrowing and heartbreaking efforts on Breaking Bad. Both are excellent choices, but I'm thinking that Emmy voters will lean toward Short because he's been around a lot longer than Paul and has never done anything quite like his portrayal of a cunning, conflicted, cut-throat lawyer with daddy issues on FX's legal drama. Then again, Breaking Bad has the buzz, and Paul's performance can only be described as searing, so I'm leaning toward him. Meanwhile, don't underestimate the big love Emmy voters have for Andre Braugher, the best actor on TNT's Men of a Certain Age.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (CBS)
Rose Byrne, Damages (FX)
Sharon Gless, Burn Notice (USA Network)
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (AMC)
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men (AMC)
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife (CBS)
Prediction: Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Preference: Sharon Gless, Burn Notice
Christine Baranski's elegant, controlled, razor-sharp work in The Good Wife makes for exactly the kind of performance Emmy voters love to honor, and I think they will do so. But I also think Sharon Gless' nail-tough turn as a mother who insists on being a part of her son's dangerous life as a burned spy, no matter how personally perilous, defines the term "supporting." A win for her would be almost as surprising as one for Rose Byrne, who certainly deserves something for holding her own opposite Glenn Close for three years.
Outstanding Made for Television Movie
Endgame (PBS)
Georgia O'Keeffe (Lifetime)
Moonshot (History)
The Special Relationship (HBO)
TempleGrandin (HBO)
You Don't Know Jack (HBO)
Prediction and Preference:Temple Grandin.
This HBO biopic was easily the most affecting and illuminating television movie of the season.
Outstanding Miniseries
The Pacific (HBO)
Return to Cranford (PBS)
Prediction and Preference: The Pacific.
PBS' Return to Cranford was lovely, but HBO's uncompromising World War II masterpiece was one for the ages. More than just the season's best miniseries, The Pacific was also the Program of the Year for 2010.
Ed Martin's Comedy Preview and Predictions