Continuing yesterday’s preview column, what follows are my predictions and preferences in the Comedy and Reality categories in advance of the 62nd Primetime Emmy Awards, which will be telecast on NBC Sunday night. I’ll begin with Outstanding Comedy Series. Just think: If CBS’ The Big Bang Theory had been nominated – as it should have been – there would be a nominee in this category from each of the Big Four broadcast networks. In fact, check out all the broadcast nominees included below. Who says the Emmys are all about cable?
Outstanding Comedy Series
Curb Your Enthusiasm(HBO)
Glee(Fox)
Modern Family(ABC)
Nurse Jackie(Showtime)
The Office(NBC)
30 Rock(NBC)
Prediction: Glee
Preference: Modern Family
ABC’s sparkling freshman hit Modern Family really does deserve this award, on account of it being the funniest comedy series on television during the Emmy qualification period and all, but I just spent four weeks in Los Angeles and it was my observation that one can’t walk into an entertainment industry event or hit a Hollywood hot spot without running into someone who over-the-moon adores Glee, so I have to assume that the momentum in the industry is so huge there is no way this show won’t win. Plus, it was just honored as Program of the Year and Outstanding New Program by the Television Critics Association and you can’t beat that! I have nothing against Glee, but I’ll be thrilled if my prediction is proven wrong.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock (NBC)
Steve Carell, The Office (NBC)
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Matthew Morrison, Glee (Fox)
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Tony Shalhoub, Monk (USA Network)
Prediction: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock or Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Preference: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Tony Shalhoub already has three Emmys for his work in Monk, while Alec Baldwin has two for 30 Rock, making them obvious Academy favorites. And since they were both as strong as ever last season, I see no reasons why one of them won’t win again this year. Baldwin has the industry momentum, coming off two consecutive wins (and because the now wildly uneven 30 Rock remains an industry darling), but Shalhoub gave a powerful performance during the two-part Monkseries finale, so I’m calling this one a toss-up. As always, Jim Parsons was way funnier than either of them, but he has never been honored by the Academy, so I’m not holding out much hope.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Toni Collette, United States of Tara (Showtime)
Tina Fey, 30 Rock (NBC)
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine (CBS)
Lea Michele, Glee (Fox)
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (NBC)
Prediction and Preference: Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
I’d say Showtime can look forward to a win in this category, because if Toni Collette doesn’t take home a second consecutive award for her outrageously demanding role of a woman with multiple personalities, then Edie Falco ought to get it for her portrayal of a harried wife, mother, nurse, mistress and drug addict. I’m going with Falco, because she has done something I didn’t think possible with her work on Nurse Jackie – she has shoved aside (without compromising) all memories of her career-defining role as Carmela Soprano.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Ty Burrell, Modern Family (ABC)
Chris Colfer, Glee (Fox)
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (CBS)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family (ABC)
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother (CBS)
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family (ABC)
Prediction: Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Preference: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
My prediction that Eric Stonestreet will take home the award is based on nothing more than the fact that his performance in Modern Family is almost as over the top as Jane Lynch’s in Glee, and she seems to be everyone’s choice for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series. But the truth is I haven’t a clue which actor is going to receive the award. I’d like to see Ty Burrell win for his perfect portrayal of a perfect idiot, but any one of these guys could take it, including last year’s surprise winner Jon Cryer or multi-talented scene-stealer Chris Colfer, often the heart and soul of Glee. And then there’s Neil Patrick Harris, who received two Emmys at last week’s Creative Emmys ceremony (one for hosting last year’s Tony Awards, the other for his guest stint on Glee) and is clearly much adored by voting members of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Julie Bowen, Modern Family (ABC)
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock (NBC)
Jane Lynch, Glee (Fox)
Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men (CBS)
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family (ABC)
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Prediction: Jane Lynch, Glee
Preference: Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Check it out: Each of the Big Four networks has a nominee in this category!
Moving on – only an idiot would bet against Jane Lynch here, but if it were up to me Julie Bowen would take home the award. Nothing against the phenomenon that is Ms. Lynch, but Bowen has been a revelation right from the start as the straight woman surrounded by colorful characters who more than holds her own while unexpectedly earning her share of laughs amid the merry madness of her family’s modern misadventures. As far as I can recall, the last actress who successfully pulled that off to such grand effect was Mary Tyler Moore on her classic Seventies sitcom.
Outstanding Reality Competition Series
The Amazing Race(CBS)
American Idol(Fox)
Dancing with the Stars(ABC)
Project Runway(Lifetime)
Top Chef(Bravo)
Prediction and Preference: The Amazing Race
I can’t argue with the fact that The Amazing Race is a marvel of modern television production, but after seven consecutive wins – and with no end to its supremacy in sight – I sometimes wish the Academy would just hand it some kind of Ultimate Emmy and free up this category. Then again, I have trouble thinking of the other four contenders in this category as especially award-worthy, so I guess I’m okay with an eighth triumph for CBS’ global competition masterpiece. (Had CBS’ Survivor or Fox’s So You Think You Can Dance been nominated I might feel otherwise.)
Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series
The Colbert Report(Comedy Central)
The Daily Show(Comedy Central)
Real Time with Bill Maher(HBO)
Saturday Night Live(NBC)
The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien(NBC)
Prediction: The Daily Show
Preference: The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien
I’m just indulging myself here: The Daily Show is clearly the best of this bunch and I hope the Academy upholds its standards. But how much fun would it be to see Conan O’Brien receive an Emmy live on NBC six months after the network screwed him over and two months before he returns to late night television on TBS? For what it’s worth, I thought O’Brien’s version of Tonight was awful, except for those last couple of weeks when host and staff alike turned their guns in the direction of their soon-to-be former employer. But I’d still like to see him get an Emmy and hear what he has to say about it.