Total ad spend reported to be $9.2 billion, up slightly from last year, exactly as I predicted. To achieve this with lower ratings two things had to occur behind the scenes:
- Higher proportion of inventory sold upfront, perhaps 80-85% vs. last year's 70-75%;
- Much higher costs per unit of audience to advertisers.
Driving these factors is advertiser demand for network television ad time, still the most effective and efficient national ad medium by far in spite of all of the overdone hype about new media.
Of course many people are increasing the time they spend with online media forms. But they're also still gathering around the boob tube when American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, 24, Heroes, etc., air. Are they 'DVR'ing these programs and skipping some of the ads. Sure, that's why Nielsen has instituted a form of commercial rating and the ad community has adopted a form of audience measurement called C3 that factors some of this activity into the ad buying and selling decisions.
In my experience it takes a full generation for a new media form to take solid root. That gives online another decade to grow into its final form. For now, don't count out 'legacy' media: you're still listening to radio, reading magazines and perhaps newspapers, seeing out-of-home ads, etc. That's where most of today's effective marketing action for most advertiser categories is and will be for some years to come.
Continue to experiment with the new forms but don't be bedazzled by them. To sell product today, you may need to use "yesterday's" media.