2010-2020: Europe's Transformation Decade – Part Two

Jack Myers discusses his new book Hooked Up today on MSNBC The Cycle 34 PMIt is clear that Europe is facing transformation both as a continent and region and that the survival of the Euro is clearly in doubt As promised this column will look ahead to suggest what the future of Europe and the Euro may be in the years between now and 2020Europe is in recession There is no real growth Unemployment continentwide is as of this writing above 10 In Spain it is has and will be around 25 In the 1830 demographic the unemployment rate is 50 in Spain and in the mid20 range in several other countries There is an incredible amount of government business and private debt more than at any time in history Greece will shortly default to some small or large degree on its39 debt While the Greek economy is smaller than the economy of Chicago the concern is quotcontagionquot meaning that Spain Portugal and Italy could well become the next default casualtiesEconomic contraction and high unemployment has existed before on the continent but never with the staggering amount of debt that exists and never in the age of the Euro It is axiomatic that economic growth is one of the key components needed to retire significant debt If there is no rising tide to lift all boats then the boats are stuck or will flounder In addition the 1830 generation the future of the continent has come of age with dramatically lowered hopes and no dreams They also had nothing to do with the establishment of the Euro or the economic policies driven forward by the 20th century legacy thinking of their parent39s generation History points to the reality that such conditions can often lead to revolution and social upheavalThe political and financial quotleadershipquot of the continent do not seem to have a vision of the future or cannot get out in front of the economic and financial crisis Each time they meet they are in reaction to or anticipation of some threat Wishing and hoping is the antithesis of leadershipA year ago I suggested that there was a 50 chance that we were seeing the death rattle of the Euro I think that percentage chance is correct today The Euro may well make it but there might be fewer countries that use it as a primary currency Without solid economic growth to save the Euro countries the establishment of a central bank and ceding national sovereignty may be the only way out I do not think that Germany will throw in the towel and make deep sacrifices to their economic way of live for an ideal that is shaky at bestEurope will not have much economic growth for the rest of the decade certainly not for the next 5 6 years Any growth will be largely diverted to deleverage the continent and cannot therefore go into growthoriented investment The United States is in too much of a fiscal crisis of its own to help Europe Only China might have the where withal to make significant investments but that will be several years down the road as they are about to transit through some disruptive economic timesThe legacy thinking of the last century relative to the strong social safety nets in the somewhat socialized economies of Europe will come to an end The idea of full pensions at the age of 60 no longer fits into either the economic realities or longer lifespans of today Most every country will be confronted with difficult choices due to the staggering amount of debt already incurred let alone additional debt that seems inevitableThe post WWII legacy thinking put in place during the Cold War will crumble away Europe is and will always be one of the great continents of the world in terms of culture thought history and innovation It will no longer have the overarching authority and influence in the 21st century that it had in the 20th Of course a key factor here is the shift of influence to the East as India China and other Asian countries become ever more developedMiracles can happen Profound changes in thinking could alter this downward spiral Unforeseen quotblack swanquot events could change this scenario in unpredictable ways That said given all the evidence and reality today in 2012 it is very probable that Europe has entered a lost decade A decade when most of the concepts and policies that brought it to its current situation must change To paraphrase Bob Dylan until Europe can be busy with being born into this new century it will be busy dyingDavid Houle is a futurist strategist and speaker He has always been slightly ahead of the curve Houle spent more than 20 years in media and entertainment Most recently David is a featured contributor to Oprahcom Check is out here wwwoprahcomdavidhoule David can be contacted at DavidDavidHoulecomRead all Davidamp8217s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at Evolution ShiftCheck us out on Facebook at MediaBizBloggerscomFollow our Twitter updates MediaBizBloggerThe opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaBizBloggerscom management or associated bloggers MediaBizBloggers is an open thought leadership platform and readers may share their comments and opinions in response to all commentaries

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2010-2020: Europe's Transformation Decade – Part Two

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