A Futurist Looks at the 2012 Election

In early 2007 when the early positioning for and coverage of the 2008 presidential campaign began I was asked about it It would be an historic election I ventured as either a woman or a black man would become president It was pretty clear to me that it would be the Democrats election to lose What I then ventured was that while 2008 might be historic in that regard the 2012 election would be of much greater long term significance for the United StatesThe forecast was a simple and straightforward one The elections of 2012 would be very contentious and combative as the forces that would want to quottake America backquot to a place where it used to be would fight against those that wanted to face the future of quotwhat America needed to bequot in the 21st centuryThis forecast was before Lehman Brothers the housing bubble collapse the stock market crash and of course the 2008 election What I saw as a futurist and in a general form only was that the forces of change meeting long held status quo beliefs would make this the first election facing the 21st century for America It was clear to me then that long held points of view as to what quotrealityquot was would be threatened by the overwhelming changes ideas and issues of this new centuryI further forecast that it would be harsh dividing contentious and borderlines would be drawn I certainly didn39t know the particulars such as the candidates PACs and what the specific vote percentages would be I did think that the 2012 election would be the first one to probably recast the direction of America for decadesWhyIn the past two years I have been talking about legacy thinking We all have legacy thoughts in our minds Those of us who are older than 40 have spent our formative years and much of our adult lives in the 20th century so much of our thinking wasis anchored there Humanity and particularly the United States with its 60 year standing as the power of the West and the world has powered into the 21st century with the legacy thought of the 20th Forward momentum being what it is carried us well through the first decade of this new century powered with thoughts and world views of the lastIn my new soon to be published book quotEntering the Shift Agequot I devote several chapters to this view and state what I see clearly which is that the Transformation Decade of 20102020 is a decade when most of the legacy thinking of the 20th century and Industrial Age will fall away to be replaced by the Shift Age thinking of the 21st century This is the process that has been called quotcreative destructionquot This passage always brings conflicts as the old ways of thinking institutions and morals are challenged by new thoughts new models and redefined moralityIn 2009 I was starting to be asked amp8211 and these questions to this futurist continued right up to the election last week if Obama would be reelected I clearly said that he would be unless the economy was much worse off than when he took office I openly stated that this was based purely on demographics The demographics that carried him to victory in 2008 amp8211 young adults women Hispanics and of course African Americans were all growing in numbers power and influence and that the fundamental core of the Republican party aging white people would be declining This of course is exactly what occurred last weekThe challenge is that the new vision is not yet forged The policies of this new century for America are not fully clear and certainly not universally embraced The demographic victors and the candidates they voted into office must now face the future and with certain trial and error create the vision for America in the 21st century in the Shift Age The defeat of the old guard that held old thoughts has occurred What is needed now is a new creative vision of what can and will be not just a gloating of who has been defeated Those of us who embrace change and the wonderful future ahead must accept creative responsibility for the incredible opportunity that lies aheadUntil the end of the year the columns here will suggest ways of looking at this new world Visions of what is already here but not widely seen what is just around the corner and what will happen a decade down the roadIt is not only a new political landscape It is a new dawn a new decade a new age and a new century Time to embrace itDavid Houle is a futurist strategist and speaker He has always been slightly ahead of the curve Houle spent more than 20 years in media and entertainment Most recently David is a featured contributor to Oprahcom Check is out here wwwoprahcomdavidhoule David can be contacted at DavidDavidHoulecomRead all Davidamp8217s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at Evolution ShiftCheck us out on Facebook at MediaBizBloggerscomFollow our Twitter updates MediaBizBloggerThe opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaBizBloggerscom management or associated bloggers MediaBizBloggers is an open thought leadership platform and readers may share their comments and opinions in response to all commentaries

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A Futurist Looks at the 2012 Election

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