A Futurist's Forecast for E-Books

This made me want to go back to past forecasts I have made about ebooks to see how accurate they were As long time readers know I have been forecasting the dramatic increase in ebooks for four years In June of 2007 six months before the Kindle came out I wrote the followingEbooks will ultimately gain significant market share This will occur when there is an quotiPod momentquot when a device comes out that is lowpriced wonderful to use and perceived to be cool Steve Jobs are you listening Once this occurs there will be a rapid increase in the percentage of books sold digitally probably leveling off around 4050 percent by 2025 Impulsive buys such as at airport bookstores will become quotpurchase and downloadquotamp8230 quotWhat39s on your ereaderquot will replace quotWhat39s on your iPodquotI remember that when I made this forecast because it was half a year before the Kindle came out there was derision regarding that 4050 figure I now look at that figure and find it conservative Here are my forecasts for ebooks as a percentage of total books sold2010 102011 152012 202015 402020 602025 75I think that by 2020 people will primarily buy physical books because of some special emotional sentimental or identity reason I think that the used book business in the coming decade will undergo a rebirth as those that collect physical books will want to make sure that they have physical copies of certain books regardless of condition I forecast that print on demand copy by copy will be the dominant part of the physical book businessI predict that the 4th quarter of 2011 will be the first holiday buying season when ereaders will become a significant part of gift giving The price war for ereaders has begun The price of the major ereaders is now below 150 There will be 99 ereaders available for the holiday season Both online and physical retailers will try to package the purchase of an ereader with gift cards for digital downloadsSo we have multiple ereaders the iPad with a new updated version with camera and other features most likely to be introduced for the holiday season rapidly dropping prices for all devices including the iPad We have a number of different tablets coming to market Amazon will be cranking up its marketing efforts Barnes ampamp Noble will be making a major effort to sell Nooks in all of its stores The cultural tipping point for digital reading is about to occurThere is another dynamic that will soon come to market that will probably accelerate the move toward digital books and that is the combination of digital books and social media A product called Copia wwwthecopiacom amp8211 will soon be coming to market I recently had a demonstration and an in depth conversation with a senior executive and I must admit that the product is not only impressive it could be a huge evolutionary next step in the digital reading experienceIn my Shift Age Trend Report and here at Oprahcom I have written that the truism 39content is king39 from the Information Age is now joined by the phrase 39context is king39 for the Shift Age Copia is the first reading experience I have seen that truly combines these two trends So our growing fascination with reading digital books increasing affordability and our full embrace of social media are coming together to trigger a tipping point in the months aheadDavid Houle is a futurist strategist and speaker He has always been slightly ahead the curve Houle spent more than 20 years in media and entertainment Most recently David is a featured contributor to Oprahcom Check is out here wwwoprahcomdavidhoule David can be contacted at DavidDavidHoulecomRead all Davidamp8217s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at David Houle MediaBizBloggersCheck us out on Facebook at MediaBizBloggerscomFollow our Twitter updates MediaBizBlogger

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A Futurist's Forecast for E-Books

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David Houle

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