Broadcast Schedule Review -- An Expert's View of 2017-18 Primetime Line-Ups & Ratings -- RBC Capital Markets

CBS Anticipating Flattish YY Ratings PerformanceCBS remains 1 in total viewers and 2 in A1849 behind NBC but nonsports ratings were down doubledigits in 201617 The major moves this programming year are procedurals SEAL Team and SWAT and of course comedy spinoff Young Sheldon Following the success of Bull last year SEAL Team is likely to perform well with Survivor as its leadin on Wednesdays On Thursdays Young Sheldon will be a success if it can hold 80 of the audience from The Big Bang Theory We expect the buyside to focus on these data points and the critical success of Star Trek Discovery Overall our expert thinks ratings for CBS in 201718 will perform about like 201617 or perhaps slightly better than the overall market Arguably the bigger hole for CBS will be when The Big Bang Theory concludes but that39s probably at least 2 years outFOXA Downside Ratings Risk RemainsWe think Fox led nonsports broadcast ratings declines last year with A1849 down around 18 yy This year looks risky to us too with all roads leading to Empire which is the leadin to Star while Orville may provide a very modest ratings boost We think Fox may have made a deliberate choice to invest less capital in broadcast entertainment instead devoting its capital to sports rights and directing the creative investment to FXABC Most Likely to Improve YYABC is expected to improve the most in 201718 as American Idol returns with Katy Perry probably taking Sunday night ratings from CBS and NBC Dancing with the Stars also held up well this year It39s also the final season of Scandal which should help it remain strong We think ABC was 11 yy in A1849 in 201617 so down midsingle digits sounds reasonable for the coming season and would be an improvementState of the Industry Advertising is BusinessAsUsual Despite Worrisome Ratings DeclinesIn total our expert says broadcast A1849 ratings fell by 9 yy in the 201617 season and we think the number is significantly worse for entertainment programming ie nonsports But the reach on hit shows like NCIS The Big Bang Theory Empire Scandal and This Is Us not to mention sports remains unrivaled for major advertisers thus TV ad budgets continue to remain flattish against the declining ratings backdrop Investors are concerned that these diverging trends will soon reach a tipping point but neither our TV expert nor our channel checks around the upfronts suggest we39re there yet recent speed bumps in digital are also helping TV shorttermPrefer Offsets to Cord Cutting DIS CBSWe also think the Media stocks that can pivot to direct content monetization are doing so as evidenced by CBS39s Star Trek Discovery going on CBS All Access DIS39sMarvel39sABC39s The Inhumans premiering on Friday nights presumably for DVR39ing and FOXA focusing its creative talents on FX Our preferred Media stocks are DIS for its nonMedia growth assets StudioParksCP and CBS for its improving earnings quality driven the ramp in retransreverse compAll values in USD unless otherwise notedPriced as of prior trading day39s market close EST unless otherwise statedLink to Full Research Report including Required Disclosures and DisclaimerThe opinions and points of view expressed in this content are exclusively the views of the author andor subjects and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet Inc management or associated writers

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Broadcast Schedule Review -- An Expert's View of 2017-18 Primetime Line-Ups & Ratings -- RBC Capital Markets

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Steven Cahall

About That with Carl Mayer: Danny Senor (Episode 7: Sports Survey) - By Carl Mayer

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Broadcast Schedule Review -- An Expert's View of 2017-18 Primetime Line-Ups & Ratings -- RBC Capital Markets

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