CES Preview: What Happens in Vegas, STAYS in Vegas - Levi Shapiro

This week marks the annual orgy of PR excess known as the Consumer Electronics Show More than 150000 mostly male visitors many sporting Tshirts with mysterious acronyms like quot4K in HD3Dquot will alternate between 2 million square feet of exhibition space and the craps tables Unfortunately for the 3200 exhibitors their marketing dollars will be squandered Although I will predict a few likely trends when it comes to CES what happens in Vegas really does STAY in VegasTwo years ago the blockbuster product from CES was supposed to be 3DTV These were a hit with everyone except the American consumer who didn39t understand the logic of parting with a month39s salary for a multitude of 3DTV standards and a paltry amount of 3D content Two years later at any one time the entire number of US households watching any 3D channel is only around 110000 Compare that to the 302 million who tuned into Sunday Night Football last week In fact the audience is so small that Nielsen cannot even measure audience viewing preferencesamp8230there simply aren39t enough viewersLast year the blockbuster CES announcement was supposed to be Ultrabooks Intel39s answer to tablets and Smartphones At 1000 per unit consumers made it clear they were quite happy with their tablets and Smartphones Research firm IHS counted only 11 million Ultrabooks sold last year less than half of an already reduced estimateIn fact although more than 20000 products will be launched this week the only blockbuster announcement to occur during CES in the last decade was back in 2006 Apple which does not even attend CES rained on everyone39s parade by preannouncing the iPhone a full six months before its actual release Nicely played Mr JobsDespite the noise CES 2013 will chrystallize a few trends already gaining momentum in 20121 Software trumps gadgets Last year Samsung and LG each announced 55quot OLED TVs This unleashed the Freudian urges of their competitors This week Sony will announce an 84quot model while Samsung and Westinghouse are planning to show 110quot UHD sets Panasonic which expects to lose nearly 10 billion this fiscal year will make the keynote address and show off its nifty 156quot UHD set All of this ignores one important constituent the consumer In the App economy it is the software and the experience which can be grafted on top of the platform Makemylife easier software such as efficient home energy use v2v vehicle to vehicle communications and other experiences will trump any gadget2 Apps Learn to Shake Hands The average US Smartphone owner has 44 downloaded apps Nielsen Virtually none of these are able to integrate with one another The next wave of Smartphones and tablets including both Android and iOS will come equipped with NFC chips Expect to see lots of geewhiz demos by the handset and tablet OEMs that will allow different devices to wirelessly share content experiences However we may see few realworld cases because of Trend 33 Consumers Continue to Get Hosed by Vertical Integration Stubbornly high gas prices mean that consumers really do want to use their Smart devices for a more ecofriendly lifestyle Theoretically sensors should be able to provide an Internet of Things IoT today That means your Apple phone communicates with your Toyota vehicle GE oven Mitsubishi refrigerator and LG air conditioner However the emphasis on vertical integration means a glaring lack of industry standards for crossnetwork communications The good news whenever consumers get repeatedly hosed disruption awaits4 3D Printing is Improving and Almost Mainstream Home 3D printing is done in a variety of ways This includes using UV light to cut polymer resin thermal fusing of plastic filaments cutting and laminating paper depositing glue to bind resin powder or using lasers to fuse metal particles While there will be some incredible demos at CES and some amazing industrial examples such as prototyping at Ford 3D printing cost and quality is still not quite mainstream However the gap is closing quickly5 The Most Exciting Category This Year Will Be Automotive Historically US consumers purchase around 16 million vehicles per year That number plummeted to as low as 10 million during the last recession Acutely aware of the need to innovate while the market is strong expect to see carmakers embrace the open API model within the vehicle Israeli startup Powermat and other wireless charging products will become more than a novelty Finally Nissan has already demonstrated an LTEready vehicle in Tokyo Expect to see other automakers announce their own 4Genabled vehiclesIf your interest is connecting the dots to predict emerging technologies you can skip the trip to Vegas altogether and focus on what Dan Yachin Research Director of Emerging Technologies at IDC calls quotthe supply sidequotquotWe look into startup companies at very early stage or even in stealth mode as these are the fastest to respond to an emerging need We also look into RampampD of established companies as well as academic research which all appear to be linked to a certain problem or different aspects of it Identifying and defining these clusters at their initial stage of development requires us to maintain ongoing relationships with the entire innovation ecosystem The insights gathered from these players enable us to connect dots that sometimes seem unrelated Using a followthemoney method where we keep track of funding and MampampA we see how different trends gradually gain momentum This methodology has enabled us to successfully predict emerging technology trendsquotWhether you are attending CES or simply trying to connect the dots be wary of all the hype from CES Because usually what happens in Vegas STAYS in Vegasamp160Levi Shapiro is a Partner at TMT Strategic Advisors a research and strategy firm focusing on the technology media and telecom sectors He can be reached at levitmtstratcom or via twitter levshapiroRead all Levi39s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at Unleavened MediaCheck us out on Facebook at MediaBizBloggerscomFollow our Twitter updates MediaBizBloggerThe opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaBizBloggerscom management or associated bloggers MediaBizBloggers is an open thought leadership platform and readers may share their comments and opinions in response to all commentaries

Click to Make Your 2025 Contribution to Support the MediaVillage Education Foundation

CES Preview: What Happens in Vegas, STAYS in Vegas - Levi Shapiro

Author

Publish date

Channel

Archived in

Levi Shapiro

"About That with Carl Mayer:" Alaina Donnellon (Episode 6) - By Carl Mayer

More Videos:

Click to Make Your 2025 Contribution to Support the MediaVillage Education Foundation

CES Preview: What Happens in Vegas, STAYS in Vegas - Levi Shapiro

Enjoying This Commentary? There's More to Love

Levi Shapiro

"About That with Carl Mayer:" Alaina Donnellon (Episode 6) - By Carl Mayer

The payment was successful

Cookies