One Touch Intelligence: 3D TV: A Post-CES Perspective - Stewart Schley - MediaBizBloggers

Welcome Stewart Schley our newest MediaBizBloggerThe 3D mania pouring forth from January39s Consumer Electronics Show has subsided enough to allow entertainment industry executives room to consider something the nascent 3D medium itself promises to deliver perspectiveWhile it39s true and exciting to realize that 30 motion pictures will be shot and produced in 3D this year from a livingroom television standpoint the hype over 3D must now give way to the slow grind of progress Even though a constellation of disparate industry participants studios TV networks video distributors and electronics manufacturers is aligned in support of 3D at large the economics and adoption rates associated with the medium remain very much in question in our view And as our recent White Paper 3D Entertainment Dimensions of an Emerging Market points out much work remains to be done to vault 3D video technology into the consumer mainstreamEven among the believers there are signals that the technology39s ascension will be more incremental than immediate and that despite the unmistakable grandeur of 3D images there are limits to how deep it will reachComcast CEO Brian Roberts encapsulated the postCES mood surrounding 3D in comments at the Congressional Internet Caucus39s quotState of the Net Conferencequot in late January Although he agreed 3D has a bright future in the living room Roberts offered a reality check on how pervasive 3D viewing is likely to become For one thing he said viewers are likely to be highly selective about wearing viewing glasses for the purpose of watching TV quotWe don39t eat chocolate sundaes three meals a dayquot he saidThe ice cream analogy is fair and in fact it may be more appropriate than comparisons between 3D and highdefinition TV Although the two technologies have much in common amp8211 the convergent show of support by the programming and the CE industries for one thing amp8211 there39s a limit to their kinshipHD offers a clear improvement to the legacy TV viewing experience that amp8211 and this is the important part amp8211 can easily be appreciated and enjoyed without requiring significant human behavioral change A swapout of the family TV set a new box from the cable company and there it is a better clearer more captivating presentation of visual information over television But it39s an improvement that requires no particular new behavior from viewers Although the 3D faithful tend to gloss over the impositions demanded by the donning of special viewing glasses in truth the requirement demands a significant change not just in the presentation of television but in the behavior associated with television amp8211 something HD never asked of usAs our report points out the intrusion of viewing glasses presents one difficult obstacle that may be too demanding for many viewers to accommodate Another related obstacle is social Television amp8211 at least the livingroom variety amp8211remains for many a communal medium shared by people who watch together It took only a day or two after the first breathless reports about 3D from CES for rankandfile sports fans to crack jokes about the farcical idea of sitting around with buddies for the big game while everybody wears silly glassesWe39ll caveat our perspective by observing that breakthroughs in delivering 3D images without the need for viewing glasses could overcome some of the technology39s social challengesBut even then it39s important to realize 3D isn39t optimal for all types of video content such as news talk shows and even some episodic dramas As Comcast39s Roberts seems to realize 3D is an astonishing technological feat and makes for an astonishing and immersive viewing experience amp8211 but only sometimesIf you buy the argument that 3D video content will be deeply enjoyed and appreciated but only in selective instances then your business and economic assumptions surrounding 3D must be very different than those that surround HDTV For one thing it may be prudent to presume shudder a slower adoption curve for 3D video than that displayed by HD In other words 10 years or longer to achieve presence in even onethird of US homes That sort of projection is anathema to the fondest wishes of the consumer electronics industry which is looking hopefully toward a profitable second act even as the consumer upgrade cycle for HD remains in its midpoint But it may be a more realistic view Meanwhile the astounding breakthrough that is the film quotAvatarquot may not be the precursor to an all3D allthetime world that some have boldly ordained It may be instead a delicious immersive joyous treat but the kind of treat we can appreciate best in relative scarcity You know kind of like a chocolate sundaeStewart Schley is Senior Director of Industry Intelligence for One Touch Intelligence a leading provider of competitive intelligence business analytics and market assessment services for leading providers in the cable telecommunications TV content and filmedentertainment industries He can be reached at stewartsonetouchintelligencecom The One Touch Intelligence report 3D Entertainment Dimensions of an Emerging Market is available through February 2010 as a complimentary download Feel free to share with your team

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One Touch Intelligence: 3D TV: A Post-CES Perspective - Stewart Schley - MediaBizBloggers

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