Prophesying the Post-Pandemic World: Buyer Beware

It39s always darkest before it gets pitch black John McCain occasionally quipped Like Zen Koans most Bible passages and good political jokes his oneliner lets the audience make its own interpretation For anyone in the forecasting business however as the political and economic earthquake of 2020 produces a tsunami of predictions about what39s next the late senator39s warning is hard to missThe fact that seers are working overtime isn39t just because of a historic election after four years of a pathologically polarizing president They39re also purporting to divine a future recast by an equally historic pandemic As someone who drafted or coordinated scores of national intelligence estimates over a quarter century at CIA a word of advice stifle the urge to buy the latest best seller predicting the shape of the postCOVID worldThe recommendation isn39t meant to give forecasters or futurists the finger Let39s stipulate that producing predictive analysis is a tough business Intelligence estimates are the case in point Bookshelves groan with critiques of their failures Because estimates can shape a president39s decisions including on war or peace postmortems have been important over the years The purpose to dissect the artform trying to better both the process and productThey39ve done some good for example making sure analysts doing the estimating spell out their assumptions declare what they know and don39t feature dissenters39 alternative views and clearly state their confidence or lack thereof in their judgments But intelligence has grappled less successfully with its most important question how do you make sure the problem on the table is amenable to prediction The question couldn39t be more relevant todayIntelligence analysts of course aren39t the only ones who need to ask From the announcement of quotthe end of historyquotamp8212political philosopher Francis Fukuyama39s 1992 declaration that liberal democracy had triumphed with the Soviet Union39s collapseamp8212to the last century39s energy experts repeatedly predicting quotpeak oilquot forecasters have produced or proselytized prognostications that have overlooked the question to their everlasting chagrinTake the legions who regularly see shining futures for companies riding touted economic transformations such as deregulation or the market impact of a new generation39s lifestyle wants and needs In any field there are always winners and losers But from Enron to WeWork countless predictive riffs have proved hollow when it became clear the competitive landscape was far more complicated fraught with unknowns and vulnerable to events than prophesiedIn uncertain times like 2020 it39s an example of why it pays to consider how much precision forecasting will bear To be sure decisionmakers in government as well as business want answers when events roil markets economies and societies Whether it39s President Johnson considering escalation in Vietnam in 1965 or an airline CEO in 2020 facing the travel industry39s collapse the stakes are huge So too are the consequences when analysts can39t deliver but fail to state the obvious we don39t knowWriting in World Politics in 1978 Professor Richard Betts an intelligence scholar made the point for his audience inside the Beltway His observation is as relevant in considering how to think about a postCOVID world today as it was in analyzing the source of intelligence failures 40 years ago quotIntelligence may perform most usefully by not offering the answers sought by authorities but by offering questions nagging decision makers into awareness of the full range of uncertainty and making the authorities39 calculations harder rather than easierquotBetts was suitably cynical about the reception his suggestion would receive quotSome leaders may accept and appreciate the functionquot he wrote but quotmost leaders will notquot The professor39s candor is worth bearing in mind as the yearend floodgates open to the predictions that will picture the postpandemic world not to mention as next week39s presidential winner proclaims what he will do in 2021Photo courtesy of The Harrington Group Click the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNetamp160

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Prophesying the Post-Pandemic World: Buyer Beware

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Kent M. Harrington

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