The Pollsters' Epic Fail: 2020 Is Not a Technical Problem

Chief Bromden the broompushing patient who narrates One Flew Over the Cuckoo39s Nest Ken Kesey39s novel about the nevertobe forgotten characters confined on a psychiatric ward nailed what the polls forecast in the 2020 election quotIt39s the truthquot he said quoteven if it didn39t happenquot Like toxic household products that must display warning labels the pollsters who blew their second consecutive presidential contest big time should have the Chief39s line tattooed on a prominent body part It39s a buyerbeware notice of more failures to comeThe pollsters are picking through their algorithms and analysis to figure out what went wrong The fact that their statistically sanctified predictions of red mirages and blue waves cratered is nontrivial as well as embarrassing Unfortunately as in 2016 the profession is producing technical explanations rather than serious thought Like the doctor who emerges from the operating room to talk to the waiting family it39s the polling business version of the surgeon39s one lineramp8212the operation was a success but the patient diedTo be sure pollsters have real problems and are acknowledging as much Most obviously the people they needed for their cross section of voters are far harder to reach in 2020 than in say 1976 No more landlines at fixed addresses Englishspeakers at the end of every call or even polite phone etiquette Instead with smart phones that the law says can39t be autodialed caller ID that makes pollsters easy to ignore and Millennials and Gen Z39s who would rather text than talk the good old days of easy outreach to the maninthestreet are long goneSome pollsters also point out voters are making it difficult to pick their brains Their rationalizations vary for who they missed and why Many cite voters who won39t talk about their choices Others say younger people are elusive like rural Americans and Hispanics their behavior means they weren39t sampled in sufficient numbers to get a good read on what they think Worse many firsttime voters in 2020 mulled their choices until election day The bottom line a turbulent as well as truculent electorate didn39t play the opinion surveyors39 gameNot surprisingly the pollsters are facing fire on several fronts Campaigns that paid for missed predictions aren39t happy Neither is the commentariat that is making clear that pollsters led them astray Critics also are reminding that none of the pollsters39 technical problems are new Others more charitably are waxing philosophic recalling that political prognostication is an art as well as a science It39s all true of course But none of the critiques address the big picture an American landscape that may well have left political polling permanently at seaConsider history and the polls that foresaw a blue wave Whether it39s generations of voters who have chosen divided governmentamp8212the President39s party has held both house of Congress in only eight of the last 50 yearsamp8212or stagnant Republican and Democratic party memberships since the 1960s most elections have brought changes in the political balance that are ripples not ground swells 2020 is a case in point Four years of Donald Trump39s failed policies and dictatorial pronouncements galvanized Democrats But they didn39t budge 70 million Republicans and GOPleaning voters who backed him on November 3rdAppearing to ignore a halfcentury of political history isn39t the only thing that raises questions about the pollsters39 election day calls Their own surveys also make clear that today39s voters are cementing these political divisions in place A Pew Research Center poll reported this month that 90 percent of Democrats as well as Republicans saw the other39s presidential candidate as a looming disaster The issue wasn39t just Biden or Trump 80 percent in both camps said they disagreed with the other39s quotcore values and goalsquot In October 85 percent of Americans queried told Pew the two sides couldn39t even agree on basic factsCombine history with hardening attitudes and the question is obvious how much can election polls really predict if they presume voters see choices on the ballot when the vast majority don39t It39s not a trick question Pollsters have collected data on the country39s fractures and assessed their significance for years But the polling gurus have said nothing about their effects on behavior at the ballot box not to mention on answers to their own opinion surveys when voters don39t believe they have a real choiceTake Hong Kong It39s an example of what pollsters are ignoring here Until this year its citizens could vote for a semidemocratic legislature and enjoy free speech and assembly all widely supported rights according to countless surveys Today Beijing is imposing draconian national security controls that strip away these rights and polls are painting a different picture Support for democracy remains strong but not for protests against China39s repression After all when voicing support for protesters can put you in a neighboring prison cell what39s your choice when pollsters callTo be sure Hong Kong citizens criticizing an authoritarian regime is one thing Americans expressing their political views in an overheated election is another But even as pollsters are chronicling the shift in how voters see each other and their choices in the United States they seem to be missing the point and perhaps the issue important to their own success Are the effectiveness and value of opinion surveys in portraying the American political landscape diminishing because of its disappearing comity and common groundFinding an answer obviously is complicated It39s not just the voters39 fault From social media39s malignant technologies marketed as campaign tools to the cable networks39 microtargeting of partisan political ads to amplify their effects the media business is happily peddling wares that are widening the country39s political divide Add the news deserts created by the demise of print journalism Across the country much of the once rich local reporting that provided context for polling39s statistical depictions has disappearedAs they search for answers on how to do better next time the pollsters should mull Neil Postman39s insights The late media and cultural critic observed that new technologies always compete with old ones for time attention and for the dominance of their world view A new technology Postman wrote in 1992 doesn39t add or subtract It changes everythingIn a deeply divided America Postman39s observation should be encouragement for the polling industry to check its assumptions Like the guy in the Hong Kong high rise when the pollster calls for many Americans the problem just might be that it doesn39t make sense to speak your mind anymorePhoto courtesy of Kent HarringtonClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of 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The Pollsters' Epic Fail: 2020 Is Not a Technical Problem

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Kent M. Harrington

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