This Year Next Year: France End-of-Year Forecast - Olivier Baconnet, GroupM France

As we write these lines we have no certainty about the next few months in terms of restrictions for the population although the government has projected a plan for a return to normal conditions assuming a controlled health situationHowever as for the first wave the restrictions imposed are having a very strong impact on the economy as a whole If the summer and the backtoschool period have shown signs of very strong recovery and moreover at higher levels than expected the epidemic upturn has unfortunately slowed down this momentum by a second lockdownNevertheless the government has to some extent taken into account the lessons of the first phase allowing certain activities to continue with the aim of finding the best balance between controlling the health crisis and supporting the economyRationally speaking this objective seems to be bearing fruit with a maximum estimated risk to GDP of one additional point in the most pessimistic estimatesHowever once the 2020 milestone has been passed and even if 2021 with the promises of vaccines early in the year helps to restore confidence the return to a normal economic situation will take yearsThe risk of bankruptcies the impact on employment and therefore on household purchasing power colossal public debt and a weaker capacity for the state to support the recovery will be on the agenda for 2021One of the most credible scenarios of the economic rebound assumes a higher growth in 2021 around 6 and an average annual longterm trend of 25 per yearWith this path France39s GDP would only return to its prepandemic level in early 2023DOWNLOAD THE FULL PDF HEREPhoto courtesy of Brian WieserCopyright and Republished with permissionClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNetamp160

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This Year Next Year: France End-of-Year Forecast - Olivier Baconnet, GroupM France

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