TV Is on the Cusp of Radical Reinvention

First and foremost there is simply better content and a lot more of it A total of 487 scripted original programs aired on US television in 2017i Over the past 15 years that is growth of roughly 170 and we could easily reach well over 500 shows this year with new entrants into the original content game from Facebook and Apple Other drivers of growth include the now 65 million US homes with Internet enabled devices deeper broadband penetration and a swelling number of both subscription and advertising funded video on demand servicesii It also doesn39t hurt that the service quality is increasing as Internet speeds increase and 5G wireless services start being rolled out in major cities in the US In terms of quality of streaming services something that long hindered consumer adoption as of October 2017 46 of streaming customers were quotVery Satisfiedquot and 44 were quotSomewhat Satisfiedquot with their SVOD streaming servicesiiiAs this market continues to grow we will see a radical transformation of the industry with a very fragmented ecosystem eventually consolidating into a small number of companies that control all aspects of the system Seeing this upheaval occur and watching who will come out on top will make the next few years fascinating Let39s look at how I think it will unfold and who will win the pay TV revolutionTelevision Ecosystem TodayThe US pay TV competitive landscape is complex and crowded There are six main elements in the ecosystemContent development actors social media users directors personalities writers producersContent production studios live production co ad agencies branded contentContent aggregators ad supported TV pay TV and OTT digital publishers theater exhibitors social media platformsContent distributors multichannel video programming distributors telcos satellite internet services providers theater exhibitorsDistribution technology TVs smartphones tablets outofhome media cars theaters social media platformsDistributions screens TVs smartphones tablets VR headsets billboards indash intheaterThere are literally thousands of companies that service this ecosystem The biggest most successful ones operate across multiple areas of the ecosystem However only a handful of companies currently operate in four or more of these spacesGoogle now has everything with distribution through Google Fiber albeit still limited and original longform content development and production through YouTube Comcast now has almost everything except distributions screens Apple and Amazon both have content developers aggregators distribution technology and screens This potentially gives these firms front runner status in the race to consolidationContent Is Still King But amp8230Content is still king today and it will continue to be but now so is the technology that delivers this content Still all things being relatively equal on the tech front those companies with the best content will continue to win While flashy innovative musthave technology is driving the industry39s rapid evolution content is still the quotproductquot that which is driving consumer demand and adoption at the end of the value chainBecause content is the most critical differentiating component we now see a trend where studios will be producing more of their own content and making less of it for their competitors The key to success will be building owning maintaining and continually exploiting financially successful franchises across all content types film TV publications music games and user generated contentContent First But That39s Not All amp8230To survive and thrive in the next five years companies will needStrong original content development and production ie studiosEvergreen content libraries ie studios indie distributorsSome ownership control over the content delivery system quotpipequot to the consumer100 ownership and control over their own distribution platformsappsBroadreaching owned and operated digital marketing assets coms social media platforms mobile appsAncillary internet of things services platforms and devices eg inhome security for bundlingThe ability to scale globallyBy 2023 I believe the eight corporations below could control up to 80 of the US pay TV market with a few others such as Netflix Twitter and Charter Spectrum as possible contendersWalt DisneyAppleAmazonComcastFacebookATampampTGoogle VerizonLife Could Soon Be a quotSiliconquot BeachIt39s conceivable that all the major Hollywood film and TV studios with the possible exception of Disney will be owned by a number of these companies or simply replaced as physical studio soundstages are replaced with virtual ones Right now Disney appears to be the one studio brand that has a shot of emerging in this group of eight as they will soon be adding a fourth key element distribution technology to their development production and aggregation capabilities with the launch of their own directtoconsumer OTT SVOD service later this yearRight now there are a few companies to watch Netflix is still growing and could continue to expand or be acquired but by whom and when Twitter39s evolving video content strategy and strength in the quotimmediacyquot of access bears close watching Disney39s acquisition of Fox and therefore more of Hulu and their latest move into OTT strategy could also shift markets Verizon still needs to snap up content to make the other parts work ATampampT whether it39s allowed to merge with Time Warner or not and how that decision will inevitably affect the company An interesting development to watch for with Apple is whether they will go to a TV subscription model as they did with music And finally Facebook must do something big in the content space soon if only to change the conversation away from privacyMustView TelevisionHow the pay TV market will transform in the next few years will make for some compelling viewing There will be amazing dramas played out as partners are wooed market share battles rage deals fall apart and mergers are consummated Happy watchingi Otterson Joe 2018 January 5 487 Scripted Series Aired in 2017 FX Chief John Landgraf Saysii The Nielsen Company 2017 Q4 The Nielson Local Watch Report amp8211 A Focus on Streaming Trends in our Citiesiii Statista amp8211 The Statistical Portal 2017 October Are you satisfied with the streaming quality of your internet streaming service Click the social buttons above or below to share this story with your friends and colleaguesThe opinions and points of view expressed in this content are exclusively the views of the author andor subjects and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet Inc management or associated writers

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TV Is on the Cusp of Radical Reinvention

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Bruce Friend

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TV Is on the Cusp of Radical Reinvention

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