Wall St. Speaks Out on Ad Fraud, TV Ad Spend, Mobile & Social - Janney/MediaEntertainment

Ad Fraud amp8211 Suspicious traffic possibly indicating ad fraud from desktops continues to significantly outpace mobile in the US according to data by Solve Media From 2Q14 to 3Q14 suspicious desktop traffic increased from 445 to 562 of impressions while it declined from 188 to 172 for mobile Bot nonhuman traffic increased to 415 from 308 in 2Q for desktops while it decreased to 72 from 116 for mobile These numbers favor performancebased campaigns and are likely to keep advertisers apprehensive about moving spend to CPMpriced digital platforms However the rapid shift of traffic to mobile could be a negating factor for advertisers but we suspect fraudsters will find ways to compensateTV Ad Spend amp8211 TV advertising declined approximately 2 in 4Q with cable TV spend down slightly less 16 according to data from Standard Media Index However were not universal with outperformance by Telemundo 5 NBC 3 and CBS 2 and underperformance in Fox 12 and Univision 6 ABC was down 2 YOY In cable outperformers included ESPN 3 NFL Network 61 and AMCX 28 The strong results if true suggest there are pockets of relative strength in an otherwise weaker market for TV advertisingSocial Updates amp8211 According to eMarketer mobile is going to drive 73 of FB ad revenue with 1bn mobile MAU in 2015 This compares to our estimates of 79 and 133bn respectively eMarketer projects the US will remain the largest contributor of mobile traffic with 1231mm MAU 125 of global but is expected to be overtaken by India in 2017 A Pew survey shows that social media engagement is rising with 70 of FB users accessing it daily vs Instagram 49 TWTR 36 Pinterest 17 and LNKD 13 The TWTR data shows a 10point decline YOY which is discouraging but could reflect changes on the site and Twitter integration with other sitesTony Wible can be reached at twiblejanneycom IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESResearch Analyst CertificationI Tony Wible the Primarily Responsible Analyst for this research report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers No part of my compensation was is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views I expressed in this research reportJanney Montgomery Scott LLC quotJanneyquot Equity Research Disclosure LegendIndividual disclosures for the companies mentioned in this report can be obtained by accessing our Firmamp8217s Disclosure SiteRead all Tony39s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at Wible39s Weekly JanneyMediaEntertainment Check us out on Facebook at MediaBizBloggerscomFollow our Twitter updates MediaBizBloggerThe opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaBizBloggerscom management or associated bloggers MediaBizBloggers is an open thought leadership platform and readers may share their comments and opinions in response to all commentaries

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Ad Fraud, TV Ad Spend, Mobile & Social - Janney/MediaEntertainment

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