What I Learned at CES 2010: 3D HDTV Is Not the Next Big Thing - Jim Louderback - MediaBizBloggers

CES 2010 was a bit smaller than in years past but there were still some groundbreaking technologies introduced However most of the buzz was about three things amp8211 3D HDTV eBooks and Slates Here39s what I think I learned about 3D amp8211 and I39ll follow up next week with my thoughts on eBooks and Slates amp8211 just in time for Apple to launch the Jesus Tablet3D Won39t Save Sony Or Samsung or Panasonic amp8211 or even Comcast or DirecTV 3D HDTVs were everywhere on the show floor and ESPN Discovery and others announced upcoming 3D channel launches many were predicting that it would be as big as HDTV That39s just not going to happen Sure 3D makes for amazing spectacles including the popular movie Avatar and top sporting events But it39s a feature not a brand new categoryThe TV industry is desperately trying to reinvent itself as today39s cell phone or PC industry amp8211 rather than yesterday39s model With phones or PCs we regularly upgrade every two to three years to get the latest features and capabilities With TVs it39s more like a 510 year replacement cycleAccording to its adherents 3D will change all that as it inspires millions to junk the TVs they bought in 2007 and 2008 for the newfangled models But it39s going to fall short and here39s whyI have a theory of technology adoption call it Louderback39s Law which says that any new development has to be substantially better on at least two dimensions And if it falls short on another dimension it must counterbalance with yet a third to become a real hit amp8211 a net score of 2 at the least 3D TVs by my calculations aren39t even in positive territoryLet39s start with the plussesIt Looks Awesome Fast paced movies and sports look pretty darn awesome on 3D If you get everything right the experience is stunning No argument That39s one in the plus columnBut Um that39s all I have on the plus side Let39s move over to the negativeProsthetic Devices Required Let39s face it unless it39s a real spectacle amp8211 like the Super Bowl or Avatar amp8211 Americans are not going to wear dorky glasses to watch TV Can you just imagine inviting a superhot date over to your pad to watch a little telly amp8211 and forcing her or him to put on a pair of glasses Now that39s romantic Or how about getting the family together for a little family TV watching Heck it39s hard enough to keep track of all those remotes now we39ve got to track down the glasses too And guaranteed little Billy will throwup before Buzz Lightyear meets Cowboy Woody And when it comes to casual viewing forget it I won39t be wearing glasses while cooking surfing the net tweeting reading the paper talking on the phone or any of the other zillion things we all do every day while watching TVSure there are sets that promise 3D without glasses I39ve seen 39em But you have to stand in just the right place and hold your head justso for them to work right And apart from being a boon to chiropractors no one39s going to want them The future of 3D is in technology that does away with the prosthetic devices amp8211 or alternately when we all start wearing tiny videoenabled contact lenses that can superimpose data visualization and 3D shuttering directly into our retina And that my friends is at least 45 years away Except if you39re already a cardcarrying member of Dorks Anonymous that39s our first negativeDim Dim Dim And when you do put on those glasses that superbright LED fourpixel set you paid a boatload for will be dimmer than an eight year old plasma that39s been burning pixels 247 It39ll look great in a dark room amp8211 or at Best Buy amp8211 but put it into the average American living room with skylights and cathedral ceilings and it39ll be practically unwatchable during the day amp8211 at least with the glasses onExpensive This one39s not so bad amp8211 as it39ll cost just a few hundred dollars more for the sets at first and eventually it ought to be nearly free But until it is free cost conscious buyers will be wary Touch screens were available on notebook computers for years yet because these features added 100 or more to the cost of a notebook few users actually purchased them But now that touch is ubiquitous and mostly free it39s becoming more common 3D will be like that The glasses hopefully will be relatively inexpensive Heck they might even be free amp8211 if you attend enough 3D movies and end up walking out with the pair they provide youContent Will be Expensive and Limited In the early days of HDTV there were limited choices But the advantages were so stark that early adopters would watch boring nature documentaries and even test patterns amp8211 if they were in HD Heck almost everything amp8211 apart from Rush Limbaugh and Larry King amp8211 looked better in HD That won39t be the case with 3D The HD transition took about 10 years but it will be much harder to move all video content to 3D And the content itself promises to be pricey to create distribute and watch Shooting in HD requires special cameras special skills and special equipment amp8211 along with the 3D technology licensing That will translate into much higher costsHD consumers are already paying an extra 10 on their cable bill for the privilege of getting the channels they already pay for encoded in HD that too is a crime but grist for another post Consumers will balk at paying yet another 10 monthly for the exact same content amp8211 in effect paying for the same show three timesSo from where I sit there is one clear differentiator amp8211 a great experience on epic video events And at least four negatives for a net score of minus three 3D video at home is not going to be the next big thing amp8211 in fact it39s been available to gamers for years yet even those hardcore early adopters have mostly shied awayBut even though it won39t save the TV industry it will be big eventually when broad viewingangle sets are available that don39t need glasses and at a very very small price premium Until then epic events will be available in 3D at movie theaters and your dorky friend39s house But even he won39t use it more than once or twice a weekWant to see what I liked at CES Check out all the cool CES products we covered at Revision3Jim Louderback joined Revision3 as the CEO in July 2007 He can be reached at jimrevision3comRead all Jimamp8217s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at Jim Louderback MediaBizBloggersFollow our Twitter updates MediaBizBlogger

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What I Learned at CES 2010: 3D HDTV Is Not the Next Big Thing - Jim Louderback - MediaBizBloggers

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