Wible's Weekly: Season Debut Not Changing Broadcast Fortunes - Janney/MediaEntertainment

The start of the broadcast season does not appear to have significantly changed the downward ratings momentum in aggregate A promising start in the first few days has fizzled and we are back to midsingle digit declines seasontodate The Big 4 broadcast networks have now seen double digit ratings declines in 5 of the last 10 days based on fast affiliate data from Nielsen After a little over two weeks in the season DIS appears best positioned although it too is losing some momentum We believe TV networks in generally especially broadcasters need compelling originals to satisfy increasingly fickle audiences that now demand premium content Overall Broadcast faces significant challenges from OTTdriven audience erosion improvements in cable network programming and an aging audience We see OTT as a source of cost inflation and as a source of ad revenue pressure that will leave broadcasters more reliant on retransmission revenue and tragically to sell more digital rightsSeasontoDate Ratings Growth DIS39 ABC is performing best with a 2 YoY increase in A1849 demo ratings in part due to introducing new programming such asMarvel39s Agents of SHIELD However some of the largest gains were tied to strong college sports lineups and note thatSHIELD lost about 15 of its GRP WoW in its third week in a very competitive timeslot DIS has also seen setbacks and canceled itsLucky 7 show after two episodes CMCSA39s NBC is roughly flat seasontodate despite a strong start in the first week due to the season premiere of The Voice which continues to draw strong audiences Its show The Blacklist has been heavily marketed and well received by critics CBS is seeing seasontodate declines in line with the Big 4 average 5 It has canceled We Are Men after 2 episodes FOXA39s Fox is seeing steep audience falloffs despite the relative success of Sleepy Hollow resulting in an almost YoY 13 ratings decline seasontodateBig 4 Market Share NBC continues to lead the Big 4 in terms of market share in the A1849 demo with approximately 31 share with CBS at 25 ABC with 24 and Fox with 20 seasontodate Share has been relatively consistent since the end of the first week of the season However on overall 2 audiences CBS leads the Big 4 with 32 of aggregate GRP seasontodate NBC attracts approximately 28 of 2 GRP while ABC is consistent with its indemo share of 24 Fox is less successful in overall audiences with a paltry 16 share seasontodateDemo vs Overall Audience Trends Overall broadcast audiences are skewing older even above the A1849 demo according to recent press articles The use of Marvel39s IP may allow ABC to pull in younger audiences which explains why SHIELD outperformed on the demo vs the overall audience rankings The differences between the 1849 shares and 2 shares suggest that NBC and Fox programming appeals more to their demo than the older skewing overall broadcast audience while CBS in particular appears to continue to attract older audiencesSocial Media Buzz As social media adoption becomes more universal we believe it will be increasingly relevant measure of success for broadcast see our notes on the Second Screen Thesis ABC is leading in this area as SHIELD has the most fans of any new broadcast original on Facebook with over twice the number of fans of the next most popular show ABC39s Once Upon a Time in Wonderland and Fox39 Sleepy Hollow also have a meaningful fan base Wonderland39s popularity is somewhat remarkable given that the data does not yet capture the premiere In terms of social engagement FB discussions SHIELD has dropped from its peak to similar levels of Sleepy Hollow while NBC39s Sean Saves the World is also seeing a strong increase since the debut of the seriesTony Wible joined Janney Montgomery Scott in 2008 and is a Managing Director covering the Media and Entertainment sector after spending the previous 10 years at Citigroup Investment Researchamp8212most recently covering the Broadcasting and Entertainment Services industries Tony can be reached at twiblejanneycom Janney Montgomery Scott LLC is a US brokerdealer registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of the New York Stock Exchange the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the Securities Investor Protection Corp Disclosures may be reviewed at Wible39s WeeklyRead all Tony39s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at Wible39s Weekly JanneyMediaEntertainment Check us out on Facebook at MediaBizBloggerscomFollow our Twitter updates MediaBizBloggerThe opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaBizBloggerscom management or associated bloggers MediaBizBloggers is an open thought leadership platform and readers may share their comments and opinions in response to all commentaries

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Wible's Weekly: Season Debut Not Changing Broadcast Fortunes - Janney/MediaEntertainment

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