A First Look Into 2017 -- High Level Thoughts

In a column written seven years ago on Jan 1 2010 I named 20102020 the Transformation Decade The dictionary definition of transformation is amp8220a change in form appearance nature or characteramp8221 Since that column was published I have found that this has increasingly been a useful metaphor for this current decadeamp160 In speeches corporate retreats blog posts and columns and in six books this definition has helped me successfully frame all the incredible amount of disruption for people experiencing concern unease threat and disorientationSince my first book was published nine years ago I have posited that the speed of change has accelerated to the point that it has become environmental that we live in an environment of changeamp160 It is palpably everywhereamp160 Five years ago I forecast that if it could be measured the amount of change during 20102015 would be doubled during 20162020amp160 2016 certainly reflected that forecastWe have moved from a time of innovation to one of disruptionamp160 Innovation was a 1990s wordamp160 It now feels iterative in a time of transformation and upheavalamp160 If you ever wondered what amp8220creative destructionamp8221 feels or looks like we are now living in one of those timesAs a futurist I am extremely excited by all this transformative changeamp160 It is the status quo the dominance of entrenched interests and conventional perceptions of amp8220realityamp8221 that hold back or slow down inevitable changeamp160 Now most everything is being challengedAt the same time I have great concerns about what could happenamp160 There is no question that the world is a dangerous placeamp160 It becomes more dangerous if thoughts and constructs from the past legacy thinking try to either hold back change or try to put it into conventional categories that fit outofdate world viewsSo now we take a look at the big obvious and notsoobvious areas where there will be upheaval and changeamp160 This will last for several columns as there are a number of areas to pay attention to and anticipate as you think of yourself your family your businesses and humanity in generalThe American PresidencyThe election of Donald Trump as President of the United States was clearly one of the biggest change events of the year It brings with it a great deal of uncertaintyamp160 Will he do what he said he would doamp160 Does he believe in all the positions that brought him to poweramp160 Will he be able to blow up the status quo that caused the frustration that swept him to power At the moment he is a Rorschach blot figure upon which people around the world are projecting their fears and hopes amp160If he is a populist president he will quickly alienate the Republican Party and increase the complexity of any rapid potential reenergizing of the Democratic PartyWhile large trends dynamics and forces can be forecast the behavior of an individual perceived through a somewhat discredited main stream media is much more difficultamp160 My read is that President Trump is ego driven and more interested in being great than being a good Republicanamp160 He will want to show the world that he is different and will always be legacy drivenamp160 He clearly comes from a negotiation mentality not a political oneamp160 This could be good as disruption or it could be terribleamp160 There really is no solid footing on forecasting the Trump presidency so all forecasts about economic and geopolitical developments for 2017 will have that as a caveatThe US EconomyThe economy will have a good run the first part of the yearamp160 The Fedamp8217s interest rate raise in December will be followed by two additional ones in 2017amp160 Though Fed Chair Yellen has said it might raise rates four times in the year I donamp8217t think they will due to the strength of the dollarThe dollar is getting stronger all the timeamp160 Relative to the world we are the best block in a bad neighborhoodamp160 In times of uncertainty capital seeks safety and increasingly next year it will flow into US currency and investmentsamp160 The rise in US interest rates will challenge both the global equity markets and the global economyamp160 Many countries and nonUS corporations have variable rate loans denominated in dollarsamp160 This is the only reason the Fed might be reluctant to raise rates as it will further strengthen the dollaramp160 Its mandate however is the US economy not the global economyThe Global EconomyThe strength of the US economy will tilt the balance of the global economyamp160China will continue to struggle to alter the direction of its economyamp160 As I had forecasted in November 2011 the middle and latter part of the decade amp8211 in other words now will be a time when the unprecedented economic miracle of the last 30 years will undergo a significant slowdownamp160 The central planning of the Communist Party that created the second largest economy is bumping up against the market dynamics of the market it createdamp160 It will continue to act with clumsiness as it struggles to create forms of growth while at the same time trying to stem the capital flight it is experiencingNext up More on the Global EconomyClick the social buttons above or below to share this content with your friends and colleaguesThe opinions and points of view expressed in this article are exclusively the views of the author andor subjects and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet Inc management or associated bloggersamp160

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A First Look Into 2017 -- High Level Thoughts

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David Houle

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A First Look Into 2017 -- High Level Thoughts

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