"About That" with Carl Mayer: Corinne Casagrande (Episode 8: Consumer Spending)

About Corinne CasagrandeCorinne Casagrande is Senior Vice President Strategy Research ampamp Planning Corinne leverages her background in business analytics to identify pockets of opportunity maximizing marketing investment for clients She brings experience from both creative and performance media agencies with a background in developing brand strategies relaunching products conducting consumer research and writing integrated marketing plans for brandsCarl Mayer Welcome to About That I39m Carl Mayer Corinne Casagrande is SVP of Strategy Planning and Research at AMS You can read her monthly column in MediaPost where she shares some of her great insightsWe39re lucky enough to have her here today in person Corinne Casagrande welcomeCorinne Casagrande Thank you so much for having me CarlCM There is a lot going on out there Economically it39s a little scary Things aren39t looking great What is happeningCC People are worried The March sentiment numbers looked really bad and then April came out and it was the lowest that it39s been in 12 years People feel really bad about the state of the economy but that doesn39t mean that the economy itself is badThe underlying macroeconomics are actually pretty strong We have wage growth that has kept pace with inflation which is dropping We have some really strong historic numbers that look like this economy is OK How people are feeling about it is totally differentAnd we have a trade war that has kind of caused a little bit of a global upending of the economy that is really causing a lot of uncertainty for businesses and people who aren39t sure what to do nextCM In the face of that with reluctant consumers who are maybe holding on to their money they39re unsure How do marketers still convert them into sales and go about as usualCC So far in March and April or at least since the tariffs were announced a lot of marketers have had success pulling forward demand There is a natural conclusion that things are going to get more expensive and some marketers have actually taken advantage of that in a form of sales and putting a sense of urgency into their messaging That39s worked and a lot of demand has been pulled forward People are stockpiling a little bit which is kind of exciting for those marketers who were acted quickly and put those policies in placeThe other thing that we39ve seen through a lot of our downturns and recessions is a stark reminder that advertising is a competitive category and we are still concerned with things like share a voice So if your competitors aren39t spending and you are you can think of that as a little bit of a bonus in the salience and the reach that you39re going to getSpending when your competitors aren39t is another great strategy Even though it might not feel good to be pouring in money into the market that you39re not sure what39s going to happen to it But historically in the long run we39ve seen that come out to be effective for marketersCM Another area of the economy that39s affected by perception where perception becomes reality is the stock market It39s really done a number on 401Kamp8217s retirement plans that39s a big deal to baby boomers The youngest of them I think are in their early 60s How does that change retirement plans or people who are retired how that retirement looksCC Yeah marketers really care about baby boomers because on an average they39re the ones holding all the purse stringsBaby boomers themselves account for more than 50 of discretionary spending in the US I mean that39s kind of remarkable when you think they39re about 20 of the population And that unevenness really applies to marketers because the people who have a lot of money to spend buy the stuffAs simple as that may sound Marketers care about baby boomers because they39re the ones buying stuff And we also care about the top 10 who are also in the stock market The top 10 of consumers account for more than 50 of discretionary spending or actually all spending in the economyThese groups alone and how they feel and how rich they feel can actually be the tipping point to put us into recession or not recession It really matters for the first time if their stock portfolio makes them feel like they need to be more conservative with their discretionary spendsThat really effects marketers for sure because we39re really pointed at discretionary categories Stuff that you know it39s not utilities it39s not stuff that you absolutely need stuff we39re convincing you to part with your dollars for It certainly matters for the economy as a whole because if sentiment were to get so bad in these two groups that could really tip us into a bad economic situationCM I don39t want to end it on bad economic situation To close things out what39s something positive What39s something good on the horizon a positive indicator that you39re seeingCC Yeah I think the most heartening number is the unemployment number It39s at historic lows still Everybody has a job here We39re in bustling New York City and recessions really happen when that starts to changeNow that doesn39t change for a while First right now where we39re at businesses are kind of in a wait and see pattern They39re holding and they39re maybe keeping some jobs open But the next thing that happens typically in a pullback is businesses start to pull back on forward investments They don39t buy that new machine They don39t look at that new lease And then the absolute last thing that tends to happen in the business is a downsizing and the job cutsThat is the trigger That39s when people default on their mortgages That39s when people can39t afford their bills But we are so far away from that right now and we don39t have any signs that that is happening right nowThe other good news is that because of all this demand and noise about tariffs most businesses have stocked up They39ve also pulled forward their investment as we saw in Q1 with the GDP collapsing that was due to the increase in imports because people just rush to get stuff in before the tariffs as fast as they couldThe great news is we can all play with as many dolls as we want until probably the end of summer before anything39s affected If the tariffs even go into placeCM That is positive enough That counts I39ll take it Thank you so much Corinne for being here todayCorinne Casagrande SVP of strategy planning and research at AMS You can read her monthly column in MediaPostWe39ll see you next time on About ThatClick to view previous episodesPosted at MediaVillage through the Thought Leadership selfpublishing platformClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillageorgMyersBizNet

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"About That" with Carl Mayer: Corinne Casagrande (Episode 8: Consumer Spending)

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