ADVERTISING DEPRESSION: It's Here and It's Sustained. Down 2.4% for 2008; -6.7% for 2009; and -2.3% for 2010

Myers Reports revised 20082010 Advertising and Marketing Investment Forecasts can be ordered in PDF format at no cost at wwwmyersreportcom They are also available for immediate download at httpwwwjackmyerscomcommentarymediaspendingforecasts36159804htmlMore than 25 billion in advertising revenues will be drained from media companies between January 2008 and December 2010 Total marketing communications budgets will decline a stunning 56 billion during this same period Where39s the bailout While I have been a bear on the 2009 media economy since 2007 I39m joining the chorus of forecasters who are expecting the market to be far more negative than originally anticipated If current projections hold advertising revenues will decline for the first time since the 1930s for three consecutive years from 2008 to 2010 And for the first time total marketing communications budgets will also decline reflecting an overall decline in total marketing budgets for the first time since the great depression Myers is the only major forecaster that incorporates 18 media categories including emerging growth media plus six marketing communications categories in our forecastsMarketing expenditures peaked in 2007 at 7561 billion with 31 percent 2343 billion of that invested in 18 advertising media categories The additional 69 percent incorporates investments in direct marketing sales promotion event marketing public relations and other belowtheline marketing categories In 2010 total marketing budgets are forecast to decline 75 percent compared to 2007 levels to slightly less than 700 billion For the first time in modern history total marketing budgets are declining in 2008 driven by a 24 percent dropoff in advertising investments Myers Reports projects total ad budgets will decline an additional 67 percent in 2009 with total marketing communications spending declining 41 percentWhile several forecasters believe the national and global economies will recover in 2009 generating ad spending resurgence in 2010 I am not as optimistic A more realistic longterm economic assessment recognition that there are systemic issues that are negatively impacting on how marketers are valuing advertising and a historical context that ad spending lags economic recovery suggests the ad economy is unlikely to recover until 2011 and possibly 2012 I am therefore projecting a continuing slide in ad spending of 23 percent in 2010 with an even steeper 26 percent decline in total marketing budgets driven by a shift away from traditional direct marketing and trade promotion spending The brunt of the 69 percent falloff in 2009 ad spend will be felt by newspapers 150 Yellow Pages 140 consumer magazines 130 radio 120 local television 105 businesstobusiness and custom publishing 90 and broadcast network television 40 Even online media will feel the pain with projected overall growth of a meager 27 percent Online display ads are forecast to grow only one percent with search engine marketing increasing 80 and online video search engine widget advertising increasing at a 250 rate to 15 billion Online growth will pick up again in 2010 with overall 85 increases Jack Myers provides individual corporate economic analyses and forecasts He can be contacted at jmjackmyerscom

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ADVERTISING DEPRESSION: It's Here and It's Sustained. Down 2.4% for 2008; -6.7% for 2009; and -2.3% for 2010

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ADVERTISING DEPRESSION: It's Here and It's Sustained. Down 2.4% for 2008; -6.7% for 2009; and -2.3% for 2010

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