ARF Media Model Illuminates Current WFA and MRC Initiatives

The ARF Media Model is a tool for helping practitioners think about measuring the effects of advertising Work on it goes back to 1948 and it was most recently updated in 2003amp160by Erwin Ephron and myself along with Jim Spaeth Bill Moran Denman Maroneyamp160and Phil Brandon Although its name suggests otherwise it is actually concerned with the holistic effect of media creativeamp160and context The first threeamp160of its eight levels are mediaonly effects including context and the higher order media effects levels 48 are combined with creative effects At level eight sales the effects are also strongly influenced by nonadvertising variables such as sales force productservice packaging distribution shelf facings adjacent products on shelf price promotion PR word of mouth weather economy competition pandemics electionsamp160and possibly sunspots jocularThe current WFAANAISBA et al initiative is focused on measuring reachfrequency across TV and digital so as to enable reduction of excess frequency on the heaviest viewers thereby improving the consumer experience with advertising It represents the first time that advertisers have stepped in and committed to paying at least a significant part of the cost of achieving this simpletostate notsoeasy goalMRC39s Outcomes Standardsamp160Working Committee of which I39m a member is attempting to write a set of standards which could be used to MRC accredit suppliers of Time Series Analysis Marketing Mix Modeling Multitouch Attribution Singlesource Matched Market Trials Lift Studies Random Control Trialsamp160and other measuresmodels of business outcomes driven by or at least correlated with advertisingIn the past two months there has been a lot said about the need for WFA MRCamp160and the many other parties involved in these two somewhat overlapping and to some extent coordinated activitiesamp160to reread the ARF Media Model Much of this sound advice has been coming from the energetic Tony Jarvis also a member of the MRC Outcomes group Tony has often pointed out that the industry ought not stray from our past high water mark accomplishments that can continue to guide our clarity of thinking if we do not ignore themMy intent in this post is to bring forth some of the most relevant text in the 2003 ARF Model The ARF Model supports the growing consensus within both the WFA and MRC quotcollegesquot for using level threeamp160of the ARF Model Advertising Exposure as the basis for determining whether advertising has actually reached a specific person or household ie the ARF Model plays a role in defining what an impression is and therefore whether it can have an outcome involving that person or householdFirst the definitions of the eight levelsNote that one must be careful not to confuse the two cases in which eyes are mentioned in level three the eyes must simply be open In level four the eyes must be on the screen or the printed page or signAlso as one digs into the ARF Model certain clarifications become apparent For example although the intent is to count ad exposure when eyes are open pragmatically the 2003 Model states in the words of Erwin Ephron adding my yearslater further two cents in square bracketsamp160quotIn broadcast it is impossible to obtain an objective measure of the people whose open eyesears are confronted by the vehicle or ad The diaries and meters used to measure persons viewing or listening hearing are not objective for they require respondent inputquot page 14 of the ARF 2003 ModelIn other words we infer both vehicle and ad exposure if the respondent says that they were viewing at that time In the Nielsen national peoplemeter system for example if the respondent has pushed hisher button to indicate heshe is viewing at the program level but does not change button settings for a brief roomleaving during the ad ad exposures will be inflatedIn fact this is what concerns Ed Papazian and Tony Jarvis Ed estimates that the inflation is 2X3X which is supported by innumerable studies done over the past half centuryPart of my motivation in hounding the industry through the 3970s3990s to move to passive peoplemeters which led to the PPM on whose original development I consulted is that we would objectively detect roomleaving This utopian state was envisioned in this ancient Myers Report postAlas at the moment the best we can hope for from the WFA and MRC efforts and those of so many other fine people is to not fall back from the sanity of the ARF Model into earlier confusion We can also enhance it for example by adding clarifying adjectives such as quotdevicequot and quotpersonquot with regard to certain measures For example there can be a device Ad Impression or a Person Ad Impression the latter would use an objective passive peoplemeter or today39s pushbutton peoplemeter subjective viewing claim The same could be applied to viewing duration which could be measured at the device or person level and be labelled accordinglyNew technologies being introduced today create an additional potential level to be added to future updates of the ARF Model predictive measures Adelaide is an example of a metric that predicts attentiveness RMT Resonance is an example of a metric that predicts all of the ARF levels from four to eight as validated by Nielsen NCS Simmons 605amp160and othersOnce we are all speaking the same language we can get to the advertisers39 desired Northstar and MRC Outcome Standards soonerDon39t miss the next post in which I compile deep thinker reactions to this article from CIMM39s Jane Clarke MASB39s Tony Pace Ed Papazian Jim Spaeth Tony Jarvis andamp160Ethan Rapp and add more dimensions to this discussion relevant to the future of measurementClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet

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ARF Media Model Illuminates Current WFA and MRC Initiatives

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Bill Harvey

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ARF Media Model Illuminates Current WFA and MRC Initiatives

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