Forecasts -- Part Three

As stated in the first columnamp8220most people and certainly people who lead institutions and companies are interested in what will happen six months to five years out as that is what is their primary focus of leadership What might happen in 2030 or 2040 while interesting is more futurist amp8216locker room talkamp8217 than valid and usable forecasts In addition the speed of change has accelerated so much and the major variables ahead are so great that to forecast about anything past 2020 is at best educated speculation rather than probable trend forecastingamp8221CEOs have consistently told me they appreciate my focus amp8211 and accuracy on six months to five years out for forecasts as that is their focus relative to the companies they leadAlmost all of my forecasts about specifics are on the forecast page of my web site Date of ForecastJuly 2010ForecastThere is and will be a new amp8220less is moreamp8221 trend in the US and the developed countries of the world Consumers have separated amp8220wantamp8221 from amp8220needamp8221 and will even postpone the purchase of what is amp8220neededamp8221 Consumers will save more pay down debt and spend less This trend will last for several yearsThis was definitely an accurate forecast The phrase I used in speeches was amp8220thrift is the new coolamp8221 This was the reason that economists who kept saying that the consumer would bring countries out of recession kept missing their forecasts The consumer habits in the developed countries of the world were profoundly changed by the Great Recession The second half of 2013 altered this forecast slightly as the top wealthy percentages of the population began to spend more due to the rapid runup of stock markets around the world Still I believe that for years to come particularly with the Millennial generation thrift will remain cool This is why amp8220Salesamp8221 are much more prevalent in retailDate of ForecastOctober 2010ForecastDeveloped countries of the world will increasingly move from an ownership to a rental society this decadeWhile this is a decadelong forecast it has proven to be accurate to date The first in a lifetime global collapse of the residential real estate market broke the belief that real estate would reliably always go up in value In addition there was the group of rental businesses such as Zip Car airbnb and the development of subscription models across all types of content Purchase models are now being challenged by rental or subscription models Again this will continue more profoundly with the Millennial generation whose early adulthood has been shaped by the real estate collapse and Great RecessionDate of ForecastNovember 2010ForecastDue to a historic shift in the workplace the employment rate will remain above 8 through 2012I was slightly off on this one as the rate dropped to 77 by the end of 2012 which was still higher than the federal government and many economists had forecast Again the government measurement of unemployment uses out of date metrics from the Industrial Age Many people are technically unemployed by these dated measurements but are surviving and thriving as independent contractorsDate of ForecastDecember 2010ForecastTablet computers and powerful mobile devices will surpass PC sales in 2012 and PC and laptops by 2014The first part of this forecast was accurate The second part looks like it will be accurate One reason of course is that people buy a new smartphone every couple of years but purchase laptops less frequently We are in the post PC era The PC has now moved to the larger basic office hardware category that includes copier and fax machines Mobile computing is in ascendancyDate of ForecastMay 2011ForecastThe consumerization of technology will continue to increase and transform societyTotally accurate The cutting edge of technology is now in the hand of the consumer not the institution As in now there is an app for thatDate of ForecastAugust 2011ForecastThere will be a significant economic hiccup in China in the next 12 monthsGenerally accurate While there was not one single hiccup there were several wide swings in interest rates the short term issues of moving from a productionexport economy to a consumer economy and disruption in the real estate market The 20year long explosive growth of the China economy largely led by central communist planning is meeting the reality of the marketplace economy it has created as a resultDate of ForecastOctober 2012ForecastThe amp8220Fiscal Cliffamp8221 tax legislation on 123112 will make 500000 the income level above which taxes will be raisedA small ball forecast At the time of the forecast the number the Obama administration was seeking was 250000 which I knew would be raised It was to 450000 so I was not too far off I made this forecast because many CEOs and business owners in the higher income brackets were talking about this relative to tax managementIn future columns I will look at the forecasts I have made about what might happen looking forward beyond 2014 This column was first published in the Shift Age Newsletter 27David Houle is a futurist strategist and speaker He has always been slightly ahead of the curve Houle spent more than 20 years in media and entertainment Most recently David is a featured contributor to Oprahcom Check him out here wwwoprahcomdavidhoule David can be contacted at DavidDavidHoulecomRead all Davidamp8217s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at Evolution ShiftCheck us out on Facebook at MediaBizBloggerscomFollow our Twitter updates at MediaBizBloggerThe opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaBizBloggerscom management or associated bloggers MediaBizBloggers is an open thought leadership platform and readers may share their comments and opinions in response to all commentaries

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Forecasts -- Part Three

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