Future of Audience Measurement What Would Bill Harvey do?

So given all thatamp8230 if you were charged with zerobasing a multiscreen measurement service today unencumbered by any legacy baggage how would you go about doing itIn answering that I39m going to focus on four things sample size sample and data quality how you put the data together and a Truth Standard First sample sizeEarlier in this series of posts I paraphrased NBCU39s Linda Yaccarino39s statement to Nielsen that VOD and SVOD cannot be measured acceptably by a panel that they must be measured by big data Those are the parts of the audience where the fragmentation is the greatest and the idea of using 50000 or 100000 home samples to measure individual program episodes is the least plausible In the on demand part of the audience across all shows used by advertisers 005 is a typical rating for any given episode on any given day That rating in a 50000 household sample is 25 homes That then has to be broken down by sexage and advanced targets Yes an episode can be cumulated over 35 days or forever and then the 50000 household sample can be analyzed by subgroups Not really acceptable for a 70B ad industry TV currency And the size of the total industry with research needs is much larger than the advertising part The nonad supported part of the industry has separate 270 billion in revenues and needs to know audience sizes composition and trends tooHowever to me the illustration that drives the point home is that currency data must be able to be used to maximize reach which means the findings on programtoprogram duplication must yield statistically significant duplication differences Let39s look at the other end of the spectrum from VOD and SVOD let39s look at where the audience is least fragmented linear television There the average rating of the inventory bought by advertisers is 02 much larger than the average rating in on demandIn order to measure with statistical confidence the difference between two shows that have high vs low duplication one also needs a very large sample In Nielsen39s current 50000 home national sample a 02 rating equates to 100 homes According to random probability amp8211 what used to be called the Sainsbury method amp8211 the duplication between two shows each of which has 02 rating is such that 02 of Show A39s audience will also be an audience member of Show B That would be a fifth of a home But you can39t have a fifth of a home you can39t get down lower than a single home in the real worldIn other words there is no way that with 50000 homes you can do a good job or any kind of a job other than mere going through the motions in maximizing reach by taking into account the real duplication patterns among shows And that39s for linear TVSo sample size is crucially important and I mean millions of homes Otherwise reach cannot truly be optimizedThis is not just theoretical the evidence can be seen at very practical levels For example when Dave Morgan asked me to consult for and evaluate Simulmedia one of the first things I noticed was the dramatically higher reach Simulmedia achieves than the big media agencies With on average 13 of the big agency budget for the same advertiser Simulmedia39s average daily reach was 44 of the big agency39s This was because Simulmedia uses big data samples to investigate these duplication differences and maximize reach The big agencies were using panel dataTo be continuedClick the social buttons above or below to share this story with your friends and colleaguesThe opinions and points of view expressed in this content are exclusively the views of the author andor subjects and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet Inc management or associated writers

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Future of Audience Measurement What Would Bill Harvey do?

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Bill Harvey

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Future of Audience Measurement What Would Bill Harvey do?

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